MEASUREMENT OF CAPITAL IN DENMARK

In December 1973, the so-called 2nd Perspective Plan was published by the Danish Ministry of Finance. It included some 5 and 15 year forecasts of investments in the private sector, based on the projected development of production and labour. The forecasts were made by use of a simple Cobb-Douglas production function, taking as capital-input the stock of buildings and machinery, using the perpetual inventory method (assuming sudden death).
Since the publication of these forecasts, an attempt has been made to refine the capital concept, measuring its services as factor input. Thus, it has been necessary to introduce an exogenous rate of interest. Inspired by Danish findings for private cars, depreciation functions for stocks and utility of machinery are developed. These functions may not seem very realistic for the heterogenous class of durables called machinery, but other possibilities appear even less convincing.
Together with an assumption of exponential decay for buildings, it is possible to produce alternative time-series for changes in input of capital in the production process. Some of the resulting estimates of parameters in the Cobb-Douglas function give a better fit than the original version. But no value of the elasticity of production of capital is firmly established, e.g. it is obviously dependant upon the period of estimation, and therefore of no great value in forecasting. No firm connection between labour productivity and capital input (in short as well as the long run) has so far been revealed in Denmark, so no measure of capital is yet of great use in forecasting, except when future growth in production resembles that of the past fairly closely.     

THE IRRATIONALITY OF ACTION AND ACTION RATIONALITY: DECISIONS, IDEOLOGIES AND ORGANIZATIONAL ACTIONS

Irrationality is a basic feature of organizational behaviour. Organizational decision making tends to be irrational, and organizational ideologies bias organizations’perceptions. Much effort has been spent on prescribing how organizations should achieve more rationality. However, rational decision making affords a bad basis for action. Some irrationalities are necessary requirements for organizational actions. Choices are facilitated by narrow and clear organizational ideologies, and actions are facilitated by irrational decision-making procedures which maximize motivation and commitment.     

Land use systems and property rights

Two lines of reasoning on very long term socio-economic change, which was a basic issue of classical economic thinking, are confronted: New Institutional Economics (NIE) and Evolutionary Economics (EE). It is demonstrated that EE offers an explanation which is both more consistent and more comprehensive. The case in point is the first economic revolution.     

Portfolio greenness and the financial performance of REITs

This paper investigates the effects of the energy efficiency and sustainability of commercial properties on the operating and stock performance of a sample of US REITs, providing insight into the net benefits of green buildings. We match data on LEED- and Energy Star-certified buildings with detailed information on REIT portfolios and calculate the share of green properties for each REIT over the 2000–2011 period. We estimate a two-stage regression model and document that the greenness of REITs is positively related to three measures of operating performance – return on assets, return on equity and the ratio of funds from operations to total revenue. We also document that there is no significant relationship between the greenness of property portfolios and abnormal stock returns, suggesting that stock prices already reflect the higher cash flows deriving from investments in more efficient properties. However, REITs with a higher fraction of green properties display significantly lower market betas.     

Determinants of idea sharing in crowdsourcing: evidence from the automotive industry

Drawing on external ideas through crowdsourcing has become common practice for firms that seek to improve and extend their product portfolios. As these initiatives often address the users of products, it is essential for firms to recognize those attributes that determine these individuals' willingness to share their ideas. This study takes the example of the automotive industry to examine how three attributes of car drivers determine their sharing behavior – that is, altruism, psychological ownership of ideas, and trust in car manufacturers. Our findings suggest that trust and altruism strengthen idea sharing, while psychological ownership weakens it. Furthermore, we find that car drivers' perception of sharing‐related risk acts as an important boundary condition for these relationships.     

An Empirical Assessment of the Swedish Bullionist Controversy*

In the 18th century, a fierce political debate broke out in Sweden about the causes of an extraordinary depreciation of the currency. More specifically, the deteriorating value of the Swedish currency was blamed arbitrarily on monetary causes (e.g., the overissuing of banknotes) and on non-monetary causes (such as balance-of-payments deficits). This paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of this so-called “Swedish Bullionist Controversy”. The results of vector autoregressions suggest that increasing amounts of paper money did give rise to inflation and a depreciation of the exchange rate. Conversely, non-monetary factors were probably less important for these developments.     

International heterogeneity in the associations of new business models and broadband Internet with music revenue and piracy

Broadband Internet has fundamentally changed business models in many industries. In the music industry, for instance, old business models were challenged by illegal competitors, and broadband Internet has enabled value creation through new business models. The changes that established business models experienced in the wake of broadband Internet, however, differed vastly across national markets, and these differences are not well understood. We build a conceptual framework and study the extent to which differences in economic and cultural factors are associated with different market outcomes in the wake of the proliferation of broadband Internet. Thus, we compile two unique data sets from the music industry, comprising (1) revenue data for 36 countries and 22 years and (2) piracy data for 47 countries and >2 years. We use a Bayesian multilevel model to explore between-country heterogeneity in the associations between these variables and broadband Internet adoption and business model innovations. Our results show that the negative association between broadband Internet penetration and music revenue is weaker in high-income countries, where income restrictions are less likely to drive demand towards illegitimate piracy services. In terms of cultural factors, we find that a market's response to the introduction of broadband Internet is less negative in countries scoring high on Hofstede's individualism and uncertainty avoidance dimensions. Furthermore, we find that overall revenues only recover after the latest generation of streaming services (e.g., Spotify) has been introduced, and the adoption of these services is associated with lower levels of online music piracy.     

Forecasting the past: the case of US interest rate forecasts

This study evaluates 10-year US government bond yield forecasts and three-month US Treasury bill rate forecasts for the period between October 1989 and December 2004. In total, 136 forecast time series with approximately 13,800 forecast data were scrutinized, making this the most extensive analysis of interest rate forecasts to date. Not one of the forecast time series proved to be unbiased. In the majority of cases, information from the past was not efficiently integrated into the forecasts. The sign accuracy is significantly better than random walk forecasts in only a very few of the forecast time series. The modified Diebold–Mariano test for forecast encompassing reveals that the information content of most of the forecast time series is lower than that of the naïve forecasts, the simple ARIMA models, the implicit forward rates, or average interest rate expectations. The forecasting process is dominated by the present and past market situation.