Ambiguity shifts and the 2007–2008 financial crisis

Faced with doubts about the quality of information and the quality of modeling techniques, ambiguity-averse agents assign higher probabilities to lower utility states, leading to higher CDS premia and lower equity prices. Using data on financial institutions, I find that the sudden increases in credit spreads during the recent crisis can be explained by changes in the amount of ambiguity faced by market participants and changes in how the total amount of ambiguity was distributed between ambiguity about information quality and ambiguity about model quality.     

News sentiment and sovereign credit risk

We explore the impact of media content on sovereign credit risk. Our measure of media tone is extracted from the Thomson Reuters News Analytics database. As a proxy for sovereign credit risk we consider credit default swap (CDS) spreads, which are decomposed into their risk premium and default risk components. We find that media tone explains and predicts CDS returns and is a mixture of noise and information. Its effect on risk premium induces a temporary change in investors’ appetite for credit risk exposure, whereas its impact on the default component leads to reassessments of the fundamentals of sovereign economies.     

A combination of differentiation and consolidation theory and risk-benefit analysis to examine decisions on mastitis prevention

Abstract

Mastitis infections cause severe pain in dairy cows and are the most costly illness to farmers. This study combined differentiation and consolidation (Diff-Con) theory with risk-benefit analysis to explore how risky decisions are perceived and justified after a decision has been taken. More specifically, using survey data from 428 Swedish dairy farmers, their decisions about adopting preventive measures to control mastitis (mastitis control options, MCO) in dairy herds were examined. The analyses included group comparisons with non-parametric rank tests and use of both ordinary least squared regression and seemingly unrelated regression analysis to examine how prior adoption of MCO affects farmers’ attitudes to the MCO. The results showed that MCOs already adopted were rated higher in perceived riskiness (if not implemented) and in expected benefit (for illness prevention) than non-adopted MCOs. Having made the decision to implement a strategy increased the likelihood of that decision being perceived as more beneficial (reducing mastitis) and risky (in terms of disease increase if not implemented), irrespective of the combination of strategies used on the farm, during the post-consolidation stage. No difference in perceived illness prevalence could explain the farmers’ rating of the MCOs. These findings suggest that there may be a path dependency in farmers’ decision-making with respect to MCO. This implies that novel MCOs may have difficulty in achieving wider implementation. These results have implications for the development of strategies to communicate best practices for use of MCOs and for new research on MCOs and farmers’ decision-making.     

Motivating innovation in newly public firms

Prior research suggests that executive option grants that do not quickly vest provide managers with better incentives to pursue long-term, instead of short-term, objectives. Previous research also suggests that the pursuit of long-term objectives could be undermined by the risk of early termination. We conjecture that these arguments jointly suggest that managers are better motivated to pursue innovation when they are given more incentive compensation with longer vesting periods for unexercised options and yet some protection from disruptive takeover threats. Our evidence for a sample of newly public firms is consistent with more innovative firms jointly choosing such a combination.     

Transfer of knowledge in technical vocational education: a narrative study in Swedish upper secondary school

In vocational education, teaching and learning are expected to take place in the different learning arenas; schools and workplaces. In such a dual school system, the question of transfer is vital, i.e. how to use knowledge learned in previous situations in new situations. This article is an empirical contribution to research concerning transfer, by means of results from semi-structured group interviews with teachers and supervisors who educate students in the Energy program and the Industry program in Swedish upper secondary school. The interviews were analysed by analyses of narratives. The results show four themes of transfer in the interviews: (1) transfer of basic knowledge, (2) transfer of principles and skills, (3) transfer of written materials and real life and (4) transfer of experiences. The results also show three factors that are crucial in order to create possibilities for transfer: (1) communication, (2) financial resources and (3) reflection. These factors demand close cooperation between the teachers and supervisors during the students’ vocational education.     

“This angle that we talked about”: learning how to weld in interaction

The specific focus of this article is how critical aspects of the object of learning to weld are made relevant in interaction between a vocational teacher and a student in the learning processes of welding as part of a Swedish upper-secondary technical vocational education programme. By intertwining variation theory with a conversation analytical approach, our analysis shows that the teaching focus alternates between the process as a whole and details about the welding process, and how the relation between the critical aspects are negotiated in the teaching situations. Furthermore, the teacher and the student together build up a common resource of experiences to which they can relate the parts and the whole, and the teaching becomes increasingly subject specific as the teacher and student build up more common experiences. The approach used in this article sheds light on the complexity of learning to weld, and also facilitates an understanding of welding as an object of learning as such.     

The Contribution of Small and Medium Enterprises to Economic Development in Ukraine and Belarus: Some Policy Perspectives

The paper considers the development of small and medium enterprises (SME) in two transition economies where market reforms have been slow (Ukraine and Belarus), focusing specifically on the role of government in the process. Empirical data from a study on SMEs and economic development in Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova are used to consider the contribution of SMEs to different aspects of transformation whilst data from a second project are used to show the support needs of SMEs.Following the introduction, which summarises the aims and methodology, the second section presents brief profiles of the context for SME development in each country. Part 3 summarises some of the main empirical findings, focusing on those aspects that have potential policy significance, specifically with respect to employment, innovation, and market orientation, whilst the fourth section considers survey evidence of the support needs of SMEs. The final section draws out the main policy implications of the findings, whilst also setting out an agenda designed to increase the contribution of SMEs to economic development in the future.On the whole, the empirical results demonstrate that some SMEs have developed in Belarus and Ukraine despite the actions of governments, although the number of private enterprises per capita remains small and their qualitative characteristics often reflect the difficult operating conditions. As a result, their contribution to economic and social change is less than it could be, mainly due to an unstable environment and an institutional context that has yet to establish the framework conditions for sustainable private sector development. In terms of policy priorities, the survey data suggest that reform of the distorted legal and financial infrastructures that exist in these countries is the highest priority need.     

Liquidity Constraints and Investment in Transition Economies

We use Bulgarian firm-level data to investigate the impact of liquidity constraints on investment performance. Internal funds are an important determinant of investment in most industrialized countries. We test whether internal funds are important for firm investment during the current transition process in Bulgaria. We use a simple accelerator model of investment to test whether liquidity constraints are relevant in the case of Bulgaria. Our estimations are based on data for the period 1993–95, prior to the Bulgarian financial crisis in 1996–97. It turns out that Bulgarian firms are liquidity constrained, and that firms' size and financial structure help to distinguish between firms that are more and less liquidity constrained. In our view, liquidity constraints can be given a different interpretation in the case of transition economies as compared to Western economies. A more in depth analysis of the data reveals that liquidity constraints, and consequently the access to external funds for Bulgarian firm investment, are to be seen against the background of soft-budget constraints and the failure of the financial system to enforce an efficient allocation of funds. In our view, the lack of liquidity constraints may actually be seen as a sign of financial weakness in the case of Bulgaria.     

The Effect of Marriage on Education of Immigrants: Evidence from a Policy Reform Restricting Marriage Migration*

We investigate the effect of immigrants’ marriage behavior on dropout from education. To identify the causal effect, we exploit a recent Danish policy reform that generated exogenous variation in marriage behavior by a complete abolishment of marriage migration for immigrants below 24 years. The reform influenced immigrants from countries with a high historical rate of marriage migration more than immigrants from country groups with a low rate. We find that the dropout rate for males increases by 25 percentage points as a consequence of marriage to a marriage migrant, whereas the effect for females is small and mostly insignificant.     

Marie Jahoda (1907–2001)

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