Persistent and Consistent Poverty in the 1994 and 1995 Waves of the European Community Household Panel Survey

This paper focuses on the mismatch between income and deprivation measures of poverty. Using the first two waves of the European Community Household Panel Survey, a measure of relative deprivation is constructed and the overlap between the relative income poor and relatively deprived is examined. There is very limited overlap with the lowest relative income threshold. The overlap increases as the income threshold is raised, but it remains true that less than half those below the 60 percent relative income line are among the most deprived. Relative deprivation is shown to be related to the persistence of income poverty, but also to a range of other resource and need factors. Income and deprivation measures each contain information that can profitably be employed to enhance our understanding of poverty and a range of other social phenomena. This is illustrated by the manner in which both income poverty and relative deprivation are associated with self-reported difficulty making ends meet.     

In pursuit of quality - the volume control for fabric goods is getting out of hand

Abstract The paper discusses the application of quality control in determining the make-up of textile goods as a result of the increase in production rates designed to meet the consumer demand for change. The downsizing and reskilling of manufacturing plants, coupled with the outsourcing and use of unskilled labour in the international marketplace, is replacing subjective skills. The impact of management practices associated with Quick Response, Just-in-Time and BS EN ISO 9000 are affecting the response rate of the manufacturer and the retailer to the consumer. In assessing suitability, technology is also progressively taking over in the prediction of the end use of a cloth and thus in the determination of production runs. The extent to which the unseen hand of the FAST and Kawabata systems of measurement are used most effectively is discussed.     

Promoting justice by treating people unequally: an experimental study

Which inequalities among individuals are considered unjust? This paper reports the results of an experiment designed to study distributive choices dealing with arbitrarily unequal initial endowments. In a three-person distribution problem where subjects either know or do not know their endowments, we find impartial behavior to be a stable pattern. Subjects either compensate for initial inequalities fully or not at all in both conditions, and they do so more often when they do not know their endowment than when they know it. Moreover, the type and the size of the good to be distributed also affect the frequency of impartial behavior.     

Cigarette pack and advertising displays at point of purchase: community demand for restrictions

Tobacco promotion influences tobacco consumption. Traditional forms of tobacco promotion have been heavily restricted in response to the harmful effects of tobacco. Tobacco displays at the point of purchase are increasingly important as a means of communicating brand imagery for the tobacco industry, especially when advertising is restricted at these points. Previous research has demonstrated that children exposed to tobacco advertising at the point of purchase have inflated perceptions of availability, use and popularity of tobacco. Internationally, laws are being debated and implemented to prohibit or restrict the display of tobacco at the point of purchase or put tobacco out of sight. Such measures would reduce tobacco product exposure and, hence, tobacco marketing among youth and the community. In South Australia, a ban on all cigarette advertising at the point of purchase was introduced in 2005. This study was designed to assess community support for restrictions on cigarette displays and advertising at the point of purchase. A telephone survey was conducted with a random sample of 2026 South Australian adults (aged 18 years and over) in July 2005. Overall, 63% of the community approved of a hypothetical total ban on cigarette displays at the point of purchase, with over three‐quarters believing this should happen in the next 12 months. A further 24% believed that cigarette displays should be restricted and 82% would approve of a ban on displays in stores that sell confectionary. Only 7% of adult smokers reported making their decision about the brand of cigarettes to buy at the point of purchase and 90% made their decision before they even entered the shop. The results strengthen arguments that cigarette displays are not necessary to maintain brand loyalty or to encourage brand switching of established smokers. Instead, the results make arguments more credible that cigarette displays normalize and promote smoking among young people and may also promote unplanned purchase or increased consumption among less frequent smokers or former smokers. Placing cigarettes out of sight would be unlikely to impact on brand choice for most smokers, who have already made up their mind before they enter the store.     

The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility

This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural changes in the volatility process. We employ generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) specifications, which describe output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility; this favors the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics. Moreover, the evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one-time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting in 1982 or 1984. That is, the integrated GARCH effect proves spurious. Finally, a joint test of a trend change and a one-time shift in the volatility process finds that the one-time shift dominates.     

Using Leading Indicators to Forecast U.S. Home Sales in a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Framework

This article uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting U.S. home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, price of homes, mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict U.S. home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.