Learning and the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank

This paper examines the welfare implications of alternative inflation targeting proposals for the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. We assume that policy makers have to “learn” the laws of motion of inflation in an economy characterized by “stickiness” in domestic price setting behavior and subjected to recurring shocks to productivity, exports and foreign price. We find that a switch from an “asymmetric” inflation targeting strategy to an “symmetric” makes little difference in welfare payoffs, but it comes at a cost of much higher interest-rate variability. We also find that there are practically no welfare gains from switching from an inflation-targeting strategy based on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) to a strategy based on the domestic price component of the HICP.     

The effect of fair disclosure regulation on timeliness and informativeness of earnings announcements

This paper examines the effect of Korea’s fair disclosure regulation on the timeliness and informativeness of earnings announcements. The present regulation for Korean listed firms requires that if a company’s sales revenue, operating income (or loss) and net income (or loss) have changed by over 30% compared to the prior year, the firm must disclose this information through a preliminary financial report (PFR) even before the company is audited by external auditors. To analyze the effects of this policy, we first investigate the timeliness of preliminary financial report disclosures. We examine the extent to which Korean listed companies actually comply with the requirement for prompt notification of information concerning material changes in financial performance. Second, we investigate the informativeness of preliminary financial reports by analyzing differential stock market reactions to different timings of preliminary financial report disclosures. Our empirical results reveal that more than half of our sample firms release their preliminary financial reports after external audits are completed, thereby potentially invalidating the effectiveness of the regulation. In addition, we find that preliminary financial reports have information value only if they are disclosed prior to annual audit report dates. This finding supports the notion that timeliness increases the informativeness of preliminary financial report disclosure by curbing insiders’ ability to potentially profit from their information advantage.     

How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data

Housing is a major component of wealth. Since house prices fluctuate considerably over time, it is important to understand how these fluctuations affect households’ consumption decisions. Rising house prices may stimulate consumption by increasing households’ perceived wealth, or by relaxing borrowing constraints. This paper investigates the response of household consumption to house prices using UK micro data. We estimate the largest effect of house prices on consumption for older homeowners, and the smallest effect, insignificantly different from zero, for younger renters. This finding is consistent with heterogeneity in the wealth effect across these groups. In addition, we find that regional house prices affect regional consumption growth. Predictable changes in house prices are correlated with predictable changes in consumption, particularly for households that are more likely to be borrowing constrained, but this effect is driven by national rather than regional house prices and is important for renters as well as homeowners, suggesting that UK house prices are correlated with aggregate financial market conditions.     

Rethinking the effectiveness of asset and cost retrenchment: The contingency effects of a firm's rent creation mechanism

This paper posits that the efficacy of different retrenchment strategies depends upon the firm's core rent creation mechanism. We focus on two distinct mechanisms of rent creation: Ricardian rent creation based on the exploitation of resources and Schumpeterian rent creation based on explorative capabilities. We argue that cost retrenchment may have detrimental effects on firms with a relatively high Schumpeterian rent focus. On the other hand, asset retrenchment may erode the basis for future rent creation for firms with a higher Ricardian rent focus. Our findings based on a sample of large nondiversified Japanese firms highlight the differing degrees of fragility and recoverability of the two rent creation mechanisms in the context of different retrenchment strategies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Liquidity risk and maturity management over the credit cycle

We show that firm demand-side factors are strong drivers of procyclical refinancing behavior over the credit cycle using novel data from the Shared National Credit program. Firms are more likely to refinance early when credit conditions are good to keep the effective maturity of their loans long and hedge against having to refinance in tight credit conditions. High credit quality firms are better able to hedge, making their refinancing propensity more sensitive to credit cycles than less creditworthy firms. There is a strong relationship between refinancing a loan, and subsequent growth in capital expenditure, especially when a loan is refinanced early.     

The equity impacts of bus rapid transit: A review of the evidence and implications for sustainable transport

The paper offers an analysis of empirical evidence on the equity impacts of operational Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems in the Global South. The focus is on vertical equity, i.e. whether BRT systems achieve progressive benefits for poorer segments of the population. Findings from Africa, Asia, and Latin America all suggest that BRT does offer significant benefits to low-income groups, in terms of travel time and cost savings, access enhancement, and safety and health benefits. However benefits are often skewed toward medium-income users and thus less progressive than they might be. Two primary reasons for this are insufficient spatial coverage and inappropriate fare policies. While many features of BRT potentially allow it to deliver pro-poor outcomes, such outcomes only materialize if BRT implementers pay specific and sustained attention to equity. The paper identifies key issues that need to be addressed to steer BRT implementation toward more socially sustainable outcomes—including better integration with other transit, paratransit, and nonmotorized transport services, and with the housing sector.     

Modelling tourist flow association for tourism demand forecasting

The purpose of this study is to examine tourism demand for Singapore from 1995 to 2013 by six major origin countries which belong to three different regions. Unlike prior tourism research, we take into account the dependence relations among the different tourist flows via copula. Copula is a statistical model of dependence and measurement of association. Specifically, we investigate the association between two tourist flows in each region. Based on empirical copula estimation, the Frank function has been identified as the most appropriate to capture the pairwise dependence structures of tourist flows. The copula-based approach combined with econometric models is proposed for tourism demand analysis that can be used to predict tourist arrivals. We apply the copula-ARDL and copula-ECM frameworks to generate joint forecasts of tourist arrivals from three regions. The findings show that the forecast performance of the Frank copula-based model outperforms the benchmark model which corresponds to the independence structure (no association) of tourist flows.     

Determinants of the Performance of Investment Promotion Agencies: Evidence from a Mix of Emerging Economies

This article argues whether and how investment promotion agencies (IPAs) efficiently influence investment promotion in the cases of the following selected variables: resources (experience, total staff, and overseas staff), service functions (combined promotion service of inward investment and trade, and inward and outward investment), and organizational structure (autonomous status of private/upper ministry-level IPAs). The results reveal a positive relationship between IPA’s performance and longer experience, larger staff, larger overseas IPA staff members, autonomous private agency types, and upper ministry-level IPAs. However, an IPA’s performance was negatively associated with the combined promotional service of inward investment and trade, and inward and outward investment. The results suggest that an IPA’s performance can be enhanced by adjusting the service functions and restructuring the governance and structure in addition to improving the IPA’s resources and the country’s investment climate.     

The transition from products to solutions: External business model fit and dynamics

This article provides empirical evidence and contributes to theory building concerning business model fit and dynamics in the area of solutions business. Business models are seen in this context as going beyond considerations such as offerings and internal processes or even relationships, and as including network and market considerations. Indeed the paper highlights the fact that a business model is not firm-focused, nor dyad-focused, but rather network-, and even market-focused, demonstrating that a business model is not static, but dynamic. Manufacturer and customer continuously shift form and content of their respective business models to adapt both to the needs of the counterpart and to market context. A qualitative case study approach is adopted, with subsequent content analysis. The case study relates to the aerospace industry with focus on a complex engineering firm, one of the largest aircraft manufacturers in the world, its customer — a national airline — and their network partners of various kinds. The data were collected through multiple face-to-face interviews with managers in both companies, as a part and parcel of a network of actors that influences and is influenced by the supplier–buyer relationship. Relationships over time between these firms and network partners are described, highlighting the interplay of products and services related to the provision of solutions. Findings highlight the dynamic nature of business models over the relationship lifecycle between supplier and customer in a complex engineering environment, and the need for reciprocal adjustment of models.