Exploring the application of the Delphi method as a forecasting tool in Information Systems and Technologies research

The Delphi method has been used widely in clarifying decision-making based on the opinions of experts in all research areas. This study focuses on Information Systems and Information Technology (IS/IT) research area. Its aim is to explore the use of the Delphi method in topics related to IS/IT as a forecasting tool. A sizeable amount of research has been examined about IS/IT using the Delphi method. This work proposes a guideline for applying the Delphi method in IS/IT studies based on a literature review of high impact IS/IT papers that apply Delphi with a view to answering forecasting questions. This guideline defines the most relevant aspects which should be considered when applying this method. Previously, the authors conducted a literature review of 2502 articles from different research topics to obtain evidence about the diffusion of the Delphi method in IS/IT compared to other areas.     

A methodological proposal for a strategic design investigation

This article presents the decisions that are presented in the transition from theoretical to methodological, as a means to establish coherence and validity in an investigation that addresses strategic design’s contribution to organizational transformations. A coherent methodological proposal is presented between the ontological posture (intersubjectivity), epistemological posture (pragmatism), and research method (mixed) required to address the object of research in strategic design, and to consistently select the various techniques and procedures required. This proposal is pertinent to respond to the research question of what the role fo strategic design might be, as related to organizational transformation, to the extent that it provides competencies (human capital), processes (structural capital), and a relationship model (relational capital).

     

Women’s Employment and Childcare Choices in Spain Through The Great Recession

The Great Recession (2008–13) changed patterns in women’s employment and the use of formal and informal external childcare among mothers of young children in Spain. This paper analyzes these changes using an analytical strategy that takes into account interdependencies across the outcomes under study. The results show that the economic crisis has resulted in interesting changes in the use of external childcare across mothers’ and fathers’ employment status; for example, as men’s unemployment increased, the use of informal non-parental childcare declined, which might be related to (unobserved) changes in fathers’ involvement in childcare during the recession. These results further indicate the need for policies that improve access to formal childcare, as well as policies that provide men and women with employment stability.     

An economic theory of leadership turnover

In an infinite-horizon stochastic model, a coup not only disciplines a dictator's policy towards a group of “kingmakers”, but also enables a kingmaker to become a dictator. Greater competition for the dictator's position, a lower impact of the dictator's policy on the kingmakers, or lower risks of staging a coup raises the benefit of a coup relative to its opportunity cost and so raises the probability of a coup. Since periodic shocks affect the efficacy of the dictator's policy, a bad enough shock makes it too costly for even talented dictators to avert a coup. More talented dictators are able to survive more negative shocks, so the worst shock in a dictator's reign is informative about the probability of a coup. Conditional on the worst shock, the probability of a coup is independent of a dictator's duration in office. The unconditional probability declines with duration.     

Using Remote Sensing for Agricultural Statistics

Remote sensing can be a valuable tool for agricultural statistics when area frames or multiple frames are used. At the design level, remote sensing typically helps in the definition of sampling units and the stratification, but can also be exploited to optimise the sample allocation and size of sampling units. At the estimator level, classified satellite images are generally used as auxiliary variables in a regression estimator or for estimators based on confusion matrixes. The most often used satellite images are LANDSAT-TM and SPOT-XS. In general, classified or photo-interpreted images should not be directly used to estimate crop areas because the proportion of pixels classified into the specific crop is often strongly biased. Vegetation indexes computed from satellite images can give in some cases a good indication of the potential crop yield.