Business cycle,storage, and energy prices

This study examines the effect of the state of the economy and inventory on interest-adjusted bases and expected returns for five energy commodities. We find that interest-adjusted bases and returns have a business cycle pattern. Consistent with the theory of storage, demand shocks near business cycle peaks generate negative interest-adjusted bases and positive returns. In recessions, the bases become positive, and the average returns are negative. Our regression results also show that the interest-adjusted bases of energy commodities are counter-cyclical and the expected returns are pro-cyclical. For petroleum commodities, inventory has a significant effect on interest-adjusted bases at low levels of inventory, whereas at high inventory levels the effect of inventory on the bases is weak. Finally, we find that the bases and economic conditions predict spot returns in energy commodity markets.     

Technological Change and Transition: Relative Contributions to Worldwide Growth During the 1990s*

In this paper we use the Kumar and Russell [American Economic Review (2002) Vol. 92, pp. 527–548] growth‐accounting procedure to examine cross‐country growth during the 1990s. Using a data set comprising developed, newly industrialized, developing and transitional economies, we decompose the growth of output per worker into components attributable to technological catch‐up, technological change and capital accumulation. In contrast to the study by Kumar and Russell, which concludes that capital deepening is the major force of growth and change in the world income per worker distribution over the 1965–90 period, our analysis shows that, during the 1990s, the major force in the further divergence of the rich and the poor is due to technological change, whereas capital accumulation plays a lesser and opposite role. Finally, although on average we find that transitional economies perform similar to the rest of the world, the procedure is able to discover some interesting patterns within the set of transitional countries.     

A study into mechanisms of attitudinal scale conversion: A randomized stochastic ordering approach

Quantitative Marketing and Economics - This paper considers the methodological challenge of how to convert categorical attitudinal scores (like satisfaction) measured on one scale to a categorical...     

Downsizing in the German chemical manufacturing industry during the 1990s. Why is small beautiful?

The German chemical manufacturing industry experienced major downsizing between 1992 and 2004, with the average size of firms shrinking by nearly half during this period. This study uses modern frontier efficiency analysis to investigate the determinants of this downsizing. Based on reliable census data, the results of this analysis suggest that firms were not primarily concerned with improving technical efficiency, but with establishing an optimal scale of production. The proportion of scale-efficient firms has been persistently increasing, and downsizing is found to be a rational conduct because all scale-inefficient firms have continually operated under the decreasing returns portion of technology.     

The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models vs. Simple Linear Econometric Models*

In this paper we construct output gap and inflation predictions using a variety of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) sticky price models. Predictive density accuracy tests related to the test discussed in Corradi and Swanson [Journal of Econometrics (2005a), forthcoming] as well as predictive accuracy tests due to Diebold and Mariano [Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (1995) , Vol. 13, pp. 253–263]; and West [Econometrica (1996) , Vol. 64, pp. 1067–1084] are used to compare the alternative models. A number of simple time‐series prediction models (such as autoregressive and vector autoregressive (VAR) models) are additionally used as strawman models. Given that DSGE model restrictions are routinely nested within VAR models, the addition of our strawman models allows us to indirectly assess the usefulness of imposing theoretical restrictions implied by DSGE models on unrestricted econometric models. With respect to predictive density evaluation, our results suggest that the standard sticky price model discussed in Calvo [Journal of Monetary Economics (1983), Vol. XII, pp. 383–398] is not outperformed by the same model augmented either with information or indexation, when used to predict the output gap. On the other hand, there are clear gains to using the more recent models when predicting inflation. Results based on mean square forecast error analysis are less clear‐cut, although the standard sticky price model fares best at our longest forecast horizon of 3 years, it performs relatively poorly at shorter horizons. When the strawman time‐series models are added to the picture, we find that the DSGE models still fare very well, often outperforming our forecast competitions, suggesting that theoretical macroeconomic restrictions yield useful additional information for forming macroeconomic forecasts.     

The Roles of Equilibrium, Optimality, Maximization and Discontent in Decision-Making Processes

A bstract . The concept of equilibrium plays a pivotal role in the neoclassical maximization theory. Equilibrium, or balance of forces, is an ethically neutral term, while optimum is a position considered by the decision-maker as the most desirable, according to some predetermined criteria of optimality. Disequilibrium can be defined as a divergence between the actual and the desired performance. Within this context, the optimum position is attained when the ideal and actual values of the crucial variables measuring performance coincide. Disequilibrium analysis can be expressed in terms of the theory of discontent. Socio-economic change caused by human decisions and actions is always rooted in discontent, which leads to determination to act. This determination, or will , is one necessary condition for change. The other necessary condition is the use of power to close the discontent gap. The coincidence of power to act and will to use it is a sufficient condition for change. To what extent a new equilibrium balancing aspirations and attainments is established depends on the relationship between the rate of change in the level of aspiration and the rate of change in the level of attainment. The theory of discontent has a much broader application to economics which is elaborated.     

Polarization of the worldwide distribution of productivity

We employ data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods to construct the world production frontier, which is in turn used to decompose (labor) productivity growth into components attributable to technological change (shift of the production frontier), efficiency change (movements toward or away from the frontier), physical capital deepening, and human capital accumulation over the 1965–2007 period. Using this decomposition, we provide new findings on the causes of polarization (the emergence of bimodality) and divergence (increased variance) of the world productivity distribution. First, unlike earlier studies, we find that efficiency change is the unique driver of the emergence of a second (higher) mode. Second, while earlier studies attributed the overall change in the distribution exclusively to physical capital accumulation, we find that technological change and human capital accumulation are also significant factors explaining this change in the distribution (most notably the emergence of a long right-hand tail). Robustness exercises indicate that these revisions of earlier findings are attributable to the addition of (more recent) years and a much greater number of countries included in our sample. We also check to see whether our results are changed by a correction for the downward bias in the DEA construction of the frontier, concluding that these corrections affect none of our major findings (essentially because the level correction roughly washes out in changes.)