Does past unemployment experience explain the transition happiness gap?

The profound economic and political changes of the 1990s had detrimental social effects in many domains of life in post-socialist countries, including diminishing life expectancy and growing unhappiness. Despite economic improvements in the second decade of transition, research has documented that happiness lagged behind. We test whether past unemployment experience can explain this “transition happiness gap in the context of Ukraine”, a country with a painful delayed transition from planned to market economy. We analyze unique longitudinal data for the period 2003–2012. Current unemployment substantially reduces subjective wellbeing, and the effect is roughly 50% larger for men than for women. The effect of past unemployment is significant, but small in magnitude compared to the effect of current unemployment. However, it does correspond to around 8% of the ‘’transition happiness gap” found by Guriev and Melnikov (2017), suggesting that past unemployment experience can be considered as a partial explanation.     

Should Smaller Countries Be More Protectionist? The Diversification Motive for Tariffs

This paper examines the diversification motive for tariffs under trade‐related uncertainty when there is incomplete international and domestic risk sharing. In the context of a two‐country Ricardian continuum‐of‐sectors model with shocks to foreign technologies or preferences, tariffs allow a country to mitigate external risk by diversifying across sectors. Given sufficiently high risk and risk aversion, the optimality of tariffs depends primarily on a country's ability to diversify, rather than its market power, such that small countries gain most.     

Causes of nonlinearities in low-order models of the real exchange rate

This paper investigates the extent to which modern DSGE models, which feature local currency pricing, home bias, nontraded goods, and incomplete markets, can generate nonlinear real exchange rate dynamics that are consistent with those found in the time series literature using data from the current floating period. Our key findings are as follows. First, if the true model can be appropriately characterized as a set of linear equations, then linearity tests that utilize univariate autoregressions of the real exchange rate suffer from an omitted variables problem, which leads them to overestimate the true incidence of nonlinearity. Consequently, studies that fail to control for this problem may spuriously find evidence of nonlinearities in the data, despite the fact that the data generating process may be linear. Second, we propose a strategy that can largely eliminate this distortion. Finally, we find that DSGE models solved using higher order approximations are capable of generating true structural nonlinearities in real exchange rates both asymptotically and in short samples.     

Foreign bank entry,credit allocation and lending rates in emerging markets: Empirical evidence from Poland

Earlier studies have documented that foreign banks charge lower lending rates and interest spreads than domestic banks. We hypothesize that this may stem from the superior efficiency of foreign entrants that they decide to pass onto borrowers (“performance hypothesis”), but could also reflect a different loan allocation with respect to borrower transparency, loan maturity and currency (“portfolio composition hypothesis”). We are able to differentiate between the above hypotheses thanks to a novel dataset containing detailed bank-specific information for the Polish banking industry. Our findings demonstrate that banks differ significantly in terms of portfolio composition and we attest to the “portfolio composition hypothesis” by showing that, having controlled for portfolio composition, there are no differences in lending rates between banks.     

Is it Possible to Utilise the Agricultural Potential of Ukraine under the Current Agrarian System?

The government of Ukraine aims to transform the country into an ‘agricultural superpower at the international level’ with the hope that the sector will gain high foreign currency earnings and become ‘the engine of national economic development’. The large agribusiness corporations have willingly responded to these calls. However, placing hope solely in the corporate sector is inadequate as the key role of agriculture to create business diversity and achieve rural social and environmental objectives will remain unfulfilled. Many other national economies have experienced ‘the offensive’ of capital on agriculture during the twentieth century, with associated negative consequences, thus encouraging them to adopt more balanced agrarian policies which benefit the whole rural population. Utilisation of Ukrainian agricultural potential as an economic growth engine requires a fundamental change in the interpretation of its purpose, which is currently focused on profit‐making export‐oriented commercial activity. The multifunctional nature of the sector needs to be emphasised, the purpose of which is not only the production of agricultural and food products, but also the creation of public benefits, such as the development opportunities and means for existence for 14 million Ukrainian rural inhabitants, maintenance of ecological balance, regeneration of soil fertility and preservation of rural landscapes.     

New Keynesian Explanations of Cyclical Movements in Aggregate Inflation and Regional Inflation Differentials

What determines the cyclical behavior of aggregate inflation and regional inflation differentials? The answer has strong implications for monetary policy and in Europe for the Stability and Growth Pact. In the United States, inflation rates move pro-cyclically, and across the Euro Area, inflation differentials are positively correlated with growth differentials. This suggests that demand shocks are the primary determinants of the cyclical behavior of aggregate inflation and regional inflation differentials. In this paper, we discuss New Keynesian explanations of these correlations, and we argue that demand shocks are either missing or inadequately modeled in the in typical New Keynesian model.     

Profitability of foreign banks in Central and Eastern Europe

This article uses data for 418 banks operating in Central and Eastern Europe between 1993 and 2004 to analyse the impact of the mode of foreign bank entry and of the parent institutions’ characteristics on bank profitability. The results show that foreign banks are affected both less and differently by domestic economic conditions, but do react to the health of the parent banks and the economic situations in their home countries. Their mode of entry is important: profits of banks entering via greenfield investment exhibit a complementary relationship with their parent banks, whereas profits of banks acquiring domestic institutions are negatively related to the opportunity costs in their home markets.     

Inherited or earned? Performance of foreign banks in Central and Eastern Europe

In this study, using a combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-difference techniques, we investigate the impact of foreign bank ownership on the performance and market power of acquired banks operating in Central and Eastern Europe. This approach allows us to control for a selection bias as larger but less profitable banks were more likely to be acquired by foreign investors. We show that during 3 years after takeover, banks become more profitable owing to cost minimization and better risk management. They also gained market share due to passing their lower cost of funds to borrowers in terms of lower lending rates. Previous studies failed to note the improvements in the performance of takeover banks because they did not account for the selection bias.     

The effect of foreign bank presence on firm entry and exit in transition economies

This study investigates the impact of foreign bank penetration on firm entry in Central and Eastern Europe. Acquisition of domestic banks by foreign investors has lowered rates of firm creation, decreased the average size of entrants, and increased firm exit in industries with greater informational opacity, while entry of greenfield foreign banks appears to have spurred firm creation and exit. We modify the view in earlier studies that informational opacity equates with firm size, defining opacity in terms of technological characteristics for a given industry. We find the economic significance of foreign bank entry is larger for opaque industries than industries with large shares of small firms. The study provides evidence of increased credit constraints for start-ups in Central and Eastern Europe which is consistent with the theoretical proposition that the presence of foreign banks exacerbates informational asymmetries.     

Premium subsidies and demand for private health insurance: results from a regression discontinuity design

This article investigates the impact of a private health insurance (PHI) subsidy on the demand for PHI in the context of the Australian health care system. In particular, we focus on the subpopulation of elderly Australians and exploit discontinuous increases to the universal ‘PHI rebate’ that occur when people turn 65 and 70 years. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find the policy has little effect on take-up of PHI and is best interpreted as a wealth transfer to elderly Australians who already have insurance.