From Returns to Tweets and Back: An Investigation of the Stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average

A sizeable percentage of investors are using social media to obtain information about companies (Cogent Research [2008]). As a consequence, social media content about firms may have an impact on stock prices (Hachman [2011]). Various studies utilize social media content to forecast stock market-related factors such as returns, volatility, or trading volume. The objective of this article is to investigate whether a bidirectional intraday relationship between stock returns and volatility and tweets exists. The study analyzed 150,180 minute-by-minute stock price and tweet data for the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over a random 13-day interval from June 2 to June 18, 2014 using a BEKK-MVGARCH methodology. Findings indicate that 87% of stock returns are influenced by lagged innovations of the tweets data, but there is little evidence to support that the direction is reciprocal, with only 7% of tweets being influenced by lagged innovations of the stock returns. Results further show that the lagged innovations from 40 percent of stock returns affect the current conditional volatility of the tweets, while 73 percent of tweets affect the current conditional volatility of stock returns. Moreover, there is strong evidence to suggest that the volatility originating from the returns to the tweets persists for 33 percent of stocks; the volatility originating from the tweets to the returns persists for 73 percent of stocks. Last, 53 percent of stocks exhibit both immediate and persistent impacts from returns to tweets, while 90 percent of stocks exhibit both immediate and persistent impacts from tweets to returns. These results may help traders achieve superior returns by buying and selling individual stocks or options. Also, asset and mutual fund managers may benefit by developing a social media strategy.     

Contextual Framing and Monetary Incentives in Field Experiments on Risk Preferences: Evidence from German Farmers

Recent studies cast doubt on the ability of abstract experiments to predict decision‐making in the field. Thus, scholars have argued for more ‘realism’ by introducing context to field experiments. Yet, such realism may work against the induced values of monetary incentives in economic experiments. It is an open question whether contextual framing works best with or without inducing values, through methods such as the use of monetary incentives. Using a sample of 146 German farmers, we compare experimentally the predictive power of a framed lottery in an agricultural context vs. using an abstract version. For one half of the sample, lotteries are incentivised; for the other half, they are hypothetical. Although risk preferences differ between treatments, all four lottery tasks correlate poorly with farmers’ real‐world use of risk management instruments such as harvest or hail insurance. Subjects who start with an agricultural framing are willing to take significantly greater risks in the lotteries. More generally, our findings cast doubt on the ability of lottery tasks to predict risk‐taking in the field.     

Estimation of semiparametric locally stationary diffusion models

This paper proposes a class of locally stationary diffusion processes. The model has a time varying but locally linear drift and a volatility coefficient that is allowed to vary over time and space. The model is semiparametric because we allow these functions to be unknown and the innovation process is parametrically specified, indeed completely known. We propose estimators of all the unknown quantities based on long span data. Our estimation method makes use of the property of local stationarity. We establish asymptotic theory for the proposed estimators as the time span increases, so we do not rely on infill asymptotics. We apply this method to interest rate data to illustrate the validity of our model. Finally, we present a simulation study to provide the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators.     

Strategic Incentives for Keeping One Set of Books in International Transfer Pricing

We study the equilibrium accounting and transfer pricing policies in a multinational duopoly with price competition in the final product market. We find that the firms in a duopoly can benefit from strategically using the same transfer price for tax and managerial purposes instead of using separate transfer prices for both objectives. According to our results, the practice of one set of books should be the prevalent accounting method in markets with a small number of competitors and similar products.     

An empirical test of a correspondence model of expatriate managers' work adjustment

We develop and empirically test a model of expatriate managers' work adjustment. In this model we relate the fit between work-related abilities and needs of expatriate managers as well as the fit between the job requirements of, and incentives associated with, an international assignment to the level of expatriate managers' work adjustment. We test this model with data gathered by means of an electronic survey among 118 German expatriate managers. The empirical findings largely support our theoretical model. The paper enhances our understanding of expatriate managers' work adjustment and its antecedents and contributes to the theoretical and empirical basis of research into expatriate management.     

School competition and students’ entrepreneurial intentions: international evidence using historical Catholic roots of private schooling

School choice research mostly focuses on academic outcomes. Policymakers increasingly view entrepreneurial traits as a non-cognitive outcome important for economic growth. We use international PISA-2006 student-level data to estimate the effect of private-school competition on students’ entrepreneurial intentions, measured by their occupational desire to manage a small enterprise. We exploit Catholic-Church resistance to state schooling in the 19th century as a natural experiment to obtain exogenous variation in current private-school shares. Our instrumental-variable results suggest that a 10%-point higher private-school share raises students’ entrepreneurial intentions by 0.3–0.5% points (11–18% of the international mean) even after controlling for current Catholic shares, students’ academic skills, and parents’ entrepreneurial occupation.