International bailouts, moral hazard and conditionality

The large international bailouts of the 1990s have been criticized for generating moral hazard at the expense of the global taxpayer. We argue that this criticism is misleading because international bailouts create no, or very few, costs to the international community. Instead, the problem is to ensure that bailouts are not used to facilitate bad domestic policies, thus creating moral hazard at the expense of domestic taxpayers. This may require a shift towards ex ante conditionality, in the sense that the availability and size of official crisis lending need to be conditional on government policies before the crisis.     

Nonparametric Tests for Positive Quadrant Dependence

We consider distributional free inference to test for positivequadrant dependence, that is, for the probability that two variablesare simultaneously small (or large) being at least as greatas it would be were they dependent. Tests for its generalizationto higher dimensions, namely positive orthant dependence, arealso analyzed. We propose two types of testing procedures. Thefirst procedure is based on the specification of the dependenceconcepts in terms of distribution functions, while the secondprocedure exploits the copula representation. For each specification,a distance test and an intersection-union test for inequalityconstraints are developed for time-dependent data. An empiricalillustration is given for U.S. insurance claim data, where wediscuss practical implications for the design of reinsurancetreaties. Another application concerns detection of positivequadrant dependence between the HFR and CSFB/Tremont marketneutral hedge fund indices and the S&P 500 index.     

Risk assessment and risk decision-making process related to hazardous installation in France

The chemical process industry gathers critical infrastructures since chemical plants represent for the society both an instrument to generate activity and benefits (production of goods, employment, services …), and an instrument that can harm people and the environment. This paper describes the risk assessment approach need in France for licensing hazardous installations, in particular those covered by the Seveso II Directive and the implication for land-use planning. The first part explains why the French risk assessment procedure is based on the quantitative evaluation of major accident scenarios with explicit criteria, and only on qualitative analysis of the risk reducing measures without explicit criteria. The second part shows some on-going evolutions in the risk assessment process in particular for the analysis of the safety barriers. In the third part, the authors share some thoughts on the risk decision-making process.     

Exchange rate pass-through in Turkish export and import prices

This article investigates the effects of horizontal acquisitions on the performance of target firms in the 1990s. Using French manufacturing firm-level data, we examine two main indicators of performance: the profit and the productive efficiency. We distinguish domestic from cross-border acquisitions. To evaluate the impact of take-overs, we implement appropriate difference-in-difference estimation techniques associated to a matching propensity score procedure. We find that Mergers &?Acquisitions (M&A) do not increase the profit of French target firms, even on the long run. However, they clearly raise the productivity of target firms. These results suggest that firms probably redistribute efficiency gains at the upstream and/or downstream production stage. There is no evidence of an increase in market power. In addition, the consequences of domestic and cross-border M&A significantly differ. Efficiency gains are stronger for cross-border M&A. This conclusion is however true only for extra-European Union operations. The achievement in the European economic integration certainly explains the absence of difference between European and domestic acquisitions. Finally, our results cast some doubt on the frequent discrimination attitude towards foreign takeovers and the fears of their impact on firms’ performance and the host country's welfare.     

Introduction: Postnational Politics in the European Union

During the Cold War, “buffer” or “bastion” seemed a popular metaphor to describe Turkey. After the Cold War, “bridge,” (and, to some extent, the “crossroad”) metaphor started to dominate the Turkish foreign policy D??course. This article traces the use of “bridge” metaphor in this D??course in the post-Cold War period by the Turkish foreign policy elite. It develops two arguments. First, the word bridge is a “metaphor of vision” combining Turkey's perceived geographical exceptionalism with an identity and a role at the international level. As a “metaphor of vision,” the employment of the word “bridge” highlighted Turkey's liminality and justified some of its foreign policy actions to Eurasia and then to the Middle East. Second, because the bridge metaphor was used in different context to justify different foreign policy choices, its meaning has changed, illustrating that metaphors are not static constructs. It concludes by Say?ng that the continuous use of “bridge” metaphor might reinforce Turkey's “liminality,” placing Turkey in a less classifiable category than the regular “othering” practices.     

Building a 3-D model of a flood basalt: an example from the Etendeka, NW Namibia

Flood basalts represent large outpourings of lavas which often cover, and interact with, sedimentary basins. For this reason areas with significant flood basalt cover are often targets for hydrocarbon exploration. Problems exist, however, when trying to image sediments and structures in offshore regions covered by basalts. Here we present preliminary 3-D models of the Etendeka flood basalt province from NW Namibia, which can act as an aid in understanding the internal and external architecture of the flood basalt cover. Satellite images, digital elevation models, measured geological logs, sections and maps, are used to create the geological model. Models are presented in 2 parts; 1) models created using topography with images such as Land Sat and geological maps draped over them, and 2) a 3-D model of key lava and sediment surfaces in the basin as defined by measured geological sections. Initial results show a palaeo-volcanic feature early in the flood basalt history which is onlapped by later Iavas. The modelling also allows a simple correction for post emplacement subsidence by assuming an original sub horizontal position for the first basin wide silicic flow unit.     

Exploring Duopoly Markets with Conjectural Variations

In this article, the authors investigate competitive firm behaviors in a two-firm environment assuming linear cost and demand functions. By introducing conjectural variations, they capture the different market structures as specific configurations of a more general model. Conjectural variations are based on the assumption that each firm believes its own strategy influences its rival's strategy. Firms derive their optimal choice from these exogenous conjectures, under the form of a conjectural best-response function. The authors’ approach fully encompasses the standard measures of market power (the Lerner Index) and concentration (the Herfindahl Index), both depending on the conjectural variations. They finally represent, analytically and graphically, the equilibrium strategies and the associated indexes in a unified framework for any level of competition, ranging from perfect competition to collusion.     

Decision theory made relevant: Between the software and the shrink

Decision theory offers a formal approach to decision making, which is often viewed and taught as the rational way to approach managerial decisions. Half a century ago it generated high hopes of capturing and perhaps replacing intuition, and providing the “right” answer in practically all managerial situations. Today it seems fair to say that decision theory has not lived up to these expectations. Behavioral science provides ample evidence that managers fail to follow the dicta of decision theory, even when these are explained to them. As a result, executives often find decision theory frustrating and useless and prefer to rely on their intuition. This paper suggests that this extreme conclusion is unwarranted and calls for a re-appraisal of decision theory. We propose that it should not always be regarded as a mathematical tool that produces the answer; rather, it can be viewed as a framework for a dialog between the decision maker and the decision theorist. In one extreme, the decision theorist studies the problem and provides the “correct’’ answer. But in another, the decision theorist only challenges the decision maker's intuition and logic. In between, a whole gamut of possible dialogs exists, in which decision theory doesn't replace intuition, but supports and refines it.