Labor supply, home production, and welfare comparisons

We consider the collective model of labor supply with marketable domestic production. We first show that, if domestic production is mistakenly ignored, the ‘collective’ indirect utility functions that are retrieved from observed behavior will be unbiased if and only if the retrieved from observed behavior will be unbiased if and only if the profit function is additive. Otherwise, in the non-additive case, the direction and the size of the bias will depend on the complementarity-substitutability of spouses' time inputs in the production process. We then show that, even if domestic labor supply functions are not observed, valid welfare comparisons are possible. This identification result generalizes that in Chiappori [Chiappori, P.A., 1992. Collective labor supply and welfare. Journal of Political Economy 100, 437-467].     

Current and anticipated deficits,interest rates and economic activity

There is a widespread feeling that current deficits, in Europe and the U.S., may hurt rather than help the recovery. This paper examines some of the issues involved, through a sequence of three models. The first model focuses on sustainability and characterizes its determinants. It suggests that the issue of sustainability may indeed be relevant in some countries. The second model focuses on the effects of fiscal policy on real interest rates, and in particular on the relative importance of the level of deficits and the level of debt in determining interest rates. The third model focuses on the effects of fiscal policy on the speed of the recovery. It shows how a sharply increasing fiscal expansion might be initially contractionary rather than expansionary.     

Speculative bubbles,crashes and rational expectations

Self ending speculative bubbles, i.e., speculative bubbles followed by market crashes, are consistent with the assumption of rational expectations. More generally, speculative bubbles may take all kinds of shapes. Detecting their presence or rejecting their existence is likely to prove very hard.     

On `indirect' trade-related R&D spillovers

An influential literature argues that trade promotes knowledge flows and technology transmission between trading partners. This literature focuses on `direct' research and development (R&D) spillovers which are related to the levels of R&D produced by the trading partners. In this paper, we argue that `indirect' trade-related R&D spillovers also take place between countries, even if they do not trade with each other. These `indirect' spillovers are associated with available rather than with produced levels of R&D. Our empirical results suggest that these `indirect' trade-related spillovers are at least as important as the `direct' ones, and strengthen the view that trade does matter for the international transmission of R&D. They also suggest that, due to the existence of these `indirect' effects, bilateral trade patterns are relatively less important determinants of the level of foreign R&D spillovers acquired through trade.     

Grasping the potential of online social networks for foresight

Online Social Networks (OSNs) have gained unprecedented popularity in recent years. OSNs facilitate the interaction among members by providing a dynamic/multimodal platform which enables discussions, sharing of multimedia content, organisation of events, etc. These networks comprise millions of members from all continents and from all age groups — although the younger generation is more prominent. OSN dynamics and inherent patterns of operation are being investigated by academia as a means of studying, for instance, ICT-enhanced social change. Industry uses them to detect new commercial trends and establish marketing strategies.We believe that the huge size of OSNs, the broad and versatile thematic topics and the fact that most users are youngsters made these new modalities of large-scale interaction also worth investigating in regard to the study of the future or foresight. In this paper, we discuss the relevance of OSNs for three objectives of foresight methods, namely creativity, expertise and collective intelligence.First, we argue that OSNs can be regarded as a tool to enhance creativity through the unprecedented modalities of communication and interaction they offer.Second, we propose OSNs as an expert tool to detect emerging changes in social behaviour. We assume that the recorded exchanges of information and thoughts between participants in forums offers an under-exploited source of information for detecting new social trends. The value of this information may be amplified by evaluating it in conjunction with other OSN data, such as member profiles, behavioural patterns or list of contacts or friends. In this way, emerging social trends could be detected. Similar approaches are already used in market research and could be transferred to foresight.Third, we consider OSNs to be a means of aligning individual thinking and fostering collective or “collaborative” intelligence for a whole range of possible goals in the future.For each of these three objectives, the theoretical foundations are complemented with some case studies. Given the novelty of the OSN phenomenon and its unexplored potential in many fields, the authors aim to trigger thinking and discussion on the potential application of this emerging phenomenon within foresight, rather than to offer a vademecum on the use of OSNs for foresight activities.     

Why OECD Countries Should Reform Rules of Origin

With preferential trade agreements on the rise worldwide rulesof origin—which are necessary to prevent trade deflection—areattracting increasing attention. At the same time, preferenceerosion for Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) recipientsis increasing resistance to further multilateral negotiations.Drawing on different approaches, this article shows that thecurrent system of rules of origin that is used by the EuropeanUnion and the United States in preferential trade agreements(including the GSP) and that is similar to systems used by otherOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countriesshould be drastically simplified if developed economies reallywant to help developing economies integrate into the world tradingsystem. In addition to diverting resources for administrativetasks, current rules of origin carry significant compliancecosts. More fundamentally, it is becoming increasingly clearthat they are often been designed to force developing economiesto buy inefficient intermediate products from developed economiesto "pay for" preferential access for the final product. Theevidence also suggests that a significant share of the rentsassociated with market access (net of rules of origin compliancecosts) is captured by developed economies. Finally, the restrictivenessof rules of origin is found to be beyond the levels that wouldbe justified to prevent trade deflection, suggesting a captureby special interest groups. The article outlines some alternativepaths to reforms. JEL codes: F13, F15     

A multi-country,multi-sector replication challenge to the validity of the cultural tightness-looseness measure

Asia Pacific Journal of Management - In this study, we assess the internal and external validity of Gelfand et al.’s (2011) recently developed measure of cultural tightness-looseness (CTL)....     

The role of management and trade union leadership on dual commitment: The mediating effect of the workplace relations climate

This article examines the effect of transformational and laisser‐faire leadership on the part of local union leaders and immediate supervisors on the dual commitment of unionised workers. Building on the social information processing perspective, it is suggested that these leadership styles are linked to commitment through the workplace relations climate (WRC). Based on a sample of 834 unionised workers, our results suggest that WRC represents an important mechanism explaining the effect of the immediate supervisor's leadership in unionised settings. Results also show that transformational leadership on the part of union representatives is positively linked to union and organisational commitment. This article contributes to the WRC and dual commitment literatures by going beyond structural and institutional explanations and considering relational and actor‐related variables, such as leadership styles.