Preferential trade agreements and manufactured goods exports: does it matter whom you PTA with?

This article explores two questions. First, do preferential trade agreements (PTAs) affect manufactured goods exports of developing countries? Second, does it matter for developing countries whom they sign the PTAs with? We find that the answer to both questions is yes. Using bilateral manufactured goods exports data from 28 developing countries during 1978–2005; we find that South–South PTAs have a significantly positive effect on manufactured goods exports. In contrast, no such effect is detected in the case of South–North PTAs. We confirmed the robustness of these findings to estimation methodology, sample selection, time period, zero trade flows and multilateral trade resistance.     

Environmental Implications of Agricultural Externality: Policy for Socially Optimal Output

Journal of Quantitative Economics - Agriculture externality is caused not only by the presence of a hydrological contamination (a state variable) but also by the method of application of...     

Inference on endogenously censored regression models using conditional moment inequalities

Under a quantile restriction, randomly censored regression models can be written in terms of conditional moment inequalities. We study the identified features of these moment inequalities with respect to the regression parameters where we allow for covariate dependent censoring, endogenous censoring and endogenous regressors. These inequalities restrict the parameters to a set. We show regular point identification can be achieved under a set of interpretable sufficient conditions. We then provide a simple way to convert conditional moment inequalities into unconditional ones while preserving the informational content. Our method obviates the need for nonparametric estimation, which would require the selection of smoothing parameters and trimming procedures. Without the point identification conditions, our objective function can be used to do inference on the partially identified parameter. Maintaining the point identification conditions, we propose a quantile minimum distance estimator which converges at the parametric rate to the parameter vector of interest, and has an asymptotically normal distribution. A small scale simulation study and an application using drug relapse data demonstrate satisfactory finite sample performance.     

Trade intensity,country size and corruption

Abstract. Several authors claim to provide evidence that governmental corruption is less severe in countries where trade intensity is higher or populations are smaller. We argue that theory is highly ambiguous on these questions, and demonstrate that empirical links between corruption and trade intensity – or country size, strongly related to trade intensity – are sensitive to sample selection bias. Most available corruption indicators provide ratings only for those countries in which multinational investors have the greatest interest: these tend to include almost all large nations, but among small nations only those that are well-governed. We find that the relationship between corruption and trade intensity disappears, using newer corruption indicators with substantially increased country coverage. Similarly, the relationship between corruption and country size weakens or disappears using samples less subject to selection bias. Received: July 2001 / accepted: April 2002 We thank Anand Swamy and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions, Paul Schorosch for able research assistance, and Ray Fisman, Roberta Gatti, Aart Kraay, and Shang-jin Wei for kindly providing data. The conclusions of this paper are not intended to represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.     

Information flow between prediction markets,polls and media: Evidence from the 2008 presidential primaries

Are the forecast errors of election-eve polls themselves forecastable? We present evidence from the 2008 Democratic Party nomination race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton showing that the answer is yes. Both cross-sectional and time series evidence suggests that market prices contain information about election outcomes that polls taken shortly before the contests do not. Conversely, election surprises relative to polls too Granger cause subsequent price movements. We then investigate whether the additional information in prices could come from the media coverage of these campaigns, and uncover a set of complex relationships between pollster’s surprise, price movements, and various aspects of media coverage. Prices anticipate the balance and content of media coverage, but not the volume. On the other hand, it is the volume of media coverage, not the balance or content, that anticipates the surprise element in election outcomes. Moreover, Granger causality between prices and election surprises barely changes after controlling for media coverage, and causality from media volume to surprises persists too after controlling for price movements. Taken together, the results suggest that both prices and the volume of media coverage contain independent election-relevant information that is not captured in polls.     

A Bibliometric Review of the Special Issues of Psychology & Marketing: 1984-2020

Psychology & Marketing (P&M), an internationally reputed journal, publishes original, peer-reviewed, empirical research on the application of psychological theories and techniques to marketing. The aim of this essay is to provide a bibliometric overview of the leading trends in the special issues of P&M over its history (1984–2020). Using bibliometric techniques, we analyze the impact of the special issues via their most cited papers, most productive authors, affiliated institutions and countries, as well as the best guest editors who contributed to the selection of the most cited special issue articles. Using network analysis VOSviewer software, we also group the special issues into four clusters to identify common themes. Further, we develop graphical visualization of coauthorships, bibliographic coupling, and cocitations. Results show that the most productive contributors are from American institutions and that P&M remains well connected to other leading journals in the marketing and psychology discipline, such as the Journal of Marketing Research, the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, the Journal of Consumer Research, the Journal of Marketing, and the Journal of Business Research.     

Why is trait scepticism not consistently reflected in state scepticism? An exploratory study into the role of aesthetic engagement

Where an auditor's sceptical disposition (trait scepticism) is directed toward non-diagnostic information, there is a risk that a sceptical consideration of diagnostic information could be diluted. This may be one reason why trait scepticism is not consistently reflected in sceptical judgments and actions (state scepticism). We develop a scale to measure an individual's predisposition toward engaging with visual elements of the environment (aesthetic engagement) and test, in two experiments employing students and practicing auditors, whether aesthetic engagement moderates the trait – state scepticism relationship. We find that aesthetic engagement attenuates the positive relationship between trait and state scepticism.     

Supplier evaluation in the context of circular economy: A forward step for resilient business and environment concern

Resource depletion is a concern for the global economy; many think that available resources on the planet will not be able to cater to an ever-growing population. Thus, economies are trying to become circular, leaving behind the linear tradition linear approach. In the circular economy (CE), physical resources and energy are made to loop back into the supply chain (SC) for a more extended period. Proper selection of suppliers is an essential criterion towards proper execution of the CE principle in SC. In this research, we have constructed a framework for evaluating the supplier concerning the CE implementation. Further, this research identifies the criterion and sub-criterion, which are pertinent for evaluating the supplier in CE context. Fuzzy-based ‘Criteria Importance Through Inter-Criteria Correlation (CRITIC)’ method is justifiably applied to determine the aggregated weights of the criteria. Finally, ‘Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)’ method is used to determine the suppliers' ranking in the Indian automobile industry. Six criteria and 24 sub-criteria are obtained as per recent literature and then inputs from experts. ‘Environment’ criterion came out as the most favourable criterion with a subjective weight of 0.230. The current research is one of the first such attempts to provide criteria for supplier selection in a CE environment. The developed framework would help organisations in implementing CE-based supplier selection. The identified criteria and sub-criteria would provide organisations with means to evaluate suppliers and help suppliers develop an effective and efficient CE based on the SC.