International tenders and futures hedging

This paper examines the optimal bidding and hedging decisions of a risk‐averse firm that takes part in an international tender. The firm faces multiple sources of uncertainty: exchange rate risk, risk of an unsuccessful tender, and business risk. The firm is allowed to trade unbiased currency futures contracts to imperfectly hedge its contingent foreign exchange risk exposure. We show that the firm shorts less (more) of the unbiased futures contracts when its marginal utility function is convex (concave) as compared with the case that the marginal utility function is linear. We further show that the curvature of the marginal utility function plays a decisive role in determining the impact of currency futures hedging on the firm's bidding behavior. Sufficient conditions that ensure the firm bids more or less aggressively than in the case without hedging opportunities are derived. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How does cooperative innovation affect innovation performance? Evidence from Chinese firms

This paper explores the impact of different cooperation networks upon their cooperative innovation effect (CIE) and innovation performance, and examined the relationship between the CIE and the innovation performance of firms. Some interesting findings appear. First, the findings indicate that there are significant and positive relationships between the seven cooperation networks and the CIE of firms, of which the internal cooperation network has the most significant and positive impact on their CIE. Second, the findings also reveal that there are significant and positive relationships between the six cooperation networks, except firm–government cooperation (FGC) and the innovation performance of firms. Third, contrary to some studies from developed countries, the results reveal that FGC does not demonstrate any significant impact on the innovation performance of firms. These results enrich and supplement the current understanding of the relationships between cooperation networks and innovation performance.     

New Product Team Decision Making: Regulatory Focus Effects on Number,Type, and Timing Decisions*

Company executives rely on new product development teams to carry out their directives and make decisions according to management's goals. However, team members bring their own motivational perspectives to strategic decisions. This research examines how individual and leadership motivations influence a dyadic team's new product decisions. Specifically, this article investigates how matching vs. mismatched motivations between team members affect new product number, type, and timing decisions. In addition, this study asks how effective leadership‐provided motivations are in guiding teams' new product decisions. A set of hypotheses is developed using regulatory focus theory, which identifies basic motivational differences in individuals (i.e., promotion vs. prevention focus) and their effects on decision making. The hypotheses examine the effects of regulatory focus match vs. mismatch within teams on the likelihood to introduce new products, the timing of new product introductions, and the types of new products introduced. To test the hypotheses, a controlled, yet realistic product management simulation is employed. A total of 124 undergraduate seniors (83 women and 41 men) at a large public university enrolled in a marketing management capstone course participated in this study for partial course credit. Utilizing two‐person teams engaged in a business simulation ensured an appropriate level of controlled complexity in the decision making task, while allowing the phenomena of interest to be isolated and tested. Results show that when dyads share the same motivational approach (regulatory focus match), leadership‐prescribed goal pursuit strategies are largely ineffective. Only dyads that do not share the same motivational approach to decision making (regulatory focus mismatch) make new product decisions consistent with leadership‐prescribed goal pursuit strategies. For regulatory focus match dyads, the results demonstrate that a promotion focus (when compared to a prevention focus) leads to greater numbers of new products introduced, faster new product introductions, and more novel new product introductions. For new product managers, these results carry important implications. Which new product opportunities to invest in and which to forgo is presumably determined by the strategic direction given to teams by top management. Results suggest that when team members share the same motivational approach, this not only influences new product decisions, but also diminishes or eliminates the influence top management can exert on new product decisions. Such “isolation” from leadership influences does not have to be detrimental. For example, companies that seek to insulate new product development teams from influences from the top, such as is the case in many new venture incubations, would be well served to staff those teams ensuring a promotion focus match.     

Psychology, Behavioral Economics, and Public Policy

Economics has typically been the social science of choice to inform public policy and policymakers. In the current paper we contemplate the role behavioral science can play in enlightening policymakers. In particular, we provide some examples of research that has and can be used to inform policy, reflect on the kind of behavioral science that is important for policy, and approaches for convincing policy-makers to listen to behavioral scientists. We suggest that policymakers are unlikely to invest the time translating behavioral research into its policy implications, and researchers interested in influencing public policy must therefore invest substantial effort, and direct that effort differently than in standard research practices.     

Adolescents’ choice and pursuit of their most important and interesting leisure activities

This study investigated the choice and pursuit of adolescents’ most important and interesting leisure activity. It is underpinned by the concept of serious leisure, recent perceptions of seriousness as a continuum and calls for incorporating contextual elements of serious activity pursuit. A questionnaire survey was administered to 832 students from 10 secondary schools in Hong Kong. Students were asked to nominate leisure activity that they regarded as most important and interesting as well as to complete an adapted version of the Serious Leisure Inventory and Measure (SLIM). Results showed the popularity of sports and performance and graphic arts activities and of psychological reasons for activity choice. There were variations in activity choice between boys and girls and across schools as well as across levels of seriousness in activity pursuit. The study adds to the scant knowledge of adolescents’ serious leisure and enhances understanding of motives for and meanings of serious engagement.     

Measuring Discontinuities in Time Series Obtained with Repeated Sample Surveys

A key requirement of repeated surveys conducted by national statistical institutes is the comparability of estimates over time, resulting in uninterrupted time series describing the evolution of finite population parameters. This is often an argument to keep survey processes unchanged as long as possible. It is nevertheless inevitable that a survey process will need to be redesigned from time to time, for example, to improve or update methods or implement more cost-effective data collection procedures. It is important to quantify the systematic effects or discontinuities of a new survey process on the estimates of a repeated survey to avoid a disturbance in the comparability of estimates over time. This paper reviews different statistical methods that can be used to measure discontinuities and manage the risk due to a survey process redesign.     

Inequality,leverage and crises: Theory and evidence revisited

Rajan points to rising income inequality as a root cause of the recent financial crisis through high household leverage. The Rajan hypothesis has ignited debate over the relationship between inequality, leverage and crises. Kumhof, Ranciere, and Winant prove the validity of this hypothesis with a theoretical formulation, but empirical studies provide mixed evidence using different samples and estimators. To clarify this controversy, we re‐examine the issue by using the same data as in the literature and provide additional evidence after taking into account the role of asset bubbles and policy interventions. Our regression is based on a new tractable theoretical model that is supported by key stylised facts, and all our analyses confirm the existence of the inequality–leverage–crisis nexus.     

FORECASTING GLOBAL EQUITY INDICES USING LARGE BAYESIAN VARS

This paper proposes a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model with common stochastic volatility to forecast global equity indices. Using a monthly dataset on global stock indices, the BVAR model controls for co‐movement commonly observed in global stock markets. Moreover, the time‐varying specification of the covariance structure accounts for sudden shifts in the level of volatility. In an out‐of‐sample forecasting application we show that the BVAR model with stochastic volatility significantly outperforms the random walk both in terms of point as well as density predictions. The BVAR model without stochastic volatility, on the other hand, shows some merits relative to the random walk for forecast horizons greater than six months ahead. In a portfolio allocation exercise we moreover provide evidence that it is possible to use the forecasts obtained from our model with common stochastic volatility to set up simple investment strategies. Our results indicate that these simple investment schemes outperform a naive buy‐and‐hold strategy.     

Currency hedging with options and futures

This paper examines the optimal hedging decision of a competitive exporting firm which faces concurrently hedgeable exchange rate risk and non-hedgeable price risk. We show that the hedging role of currency options is due to two distinct sources of non-linearity: (i) the multiplicative nature of the price and exchange rate risk; and (ii) the marginal utility function of the firm. In particular, we show that a long put option position is optimal when the price risk is negatively correlated with the exchange rate risk and/or the firm is prudent.