In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation

International commentators seem to have a consensus view that the Chinese yuan is substantially undervalued and the Chinese monetary authority must take speedy actions to redress the currency misalignment by rapid nominal revaluation. This paper argues for a gradualist but comprehensive strategy for adjusting the renminbi’s exchange rate. Taking into consideration the facts that the yuan’s undervaluation is caused by an array of domestic and international factors and that the Chinese central bank cannot effectively invest its growing holdings of foreign reserves, we develop a framework to provide a theoretical underpinning for the optimal strategy for the renminbi’s gradual revaluation. With this strategy, the renminbi undervaluation problem is gradually redressed through a combination of nominal appreciation and higher inflation plus some other structural and macroeconomic policies. This strategy can also allow absorption of external imbalances, hence strengthening the foundation of China’s long-term growth.     

解构中美贸易顺差问题——试析生产全球化、国际产业转移之影响

近年来,随着中美之间贸易顺差的扩大,中美之间的贸易摩擦也成为各界关注的重点。本文尝试从经济全球化和产业国际转移角度来剖析中美贸易摩擦,以探求中美贸易顺差的合理性,同时对中美贸易衡量标准的选择和双方地位实质上的不平等问题进行了深入剖析,并从维护国际贸易增长全局方面提出了初步建议。     

机构投资者持股与公司治理间关系的实证研究——基于代理成本的视角

利用2001—2011年我国上市公司的相关数据,从代理成本的视角,对机构投资者在强化上市公司的外部监督、改善公司内部治理方面的作用进行了研究。实证结果显示:机构投资者的存在及发展能够完善公司治理、降低管理层的代理成本,但该影响的经济效果较微弱。指出:有必要进一步创造条件,促使机构投资者在提升公司治理水平、促进证券市场健康发展方面发挥更大作用。     

Outperformance Certificates: analysis, pricing, interpretation, and performance

In this paper we introduce a new financial product named Outperformance Certificates. We study the €43 billion sample by examining 1,507 issues of the certificates outstanding in August 2005 issued by banks in Europe. We present formulas to price the certificates and empirically examine the profits in the primary market for issuing the certificates. We find that issuance of the certificates is profitable for the issuers in our sample. Issuers sell the certificate at prices 3–5 % above the fair value based upon the components of the underlying assets. We also find that the dividend yields and ex-dividend dates play an important role in the profitability of the certificates. The underlying securities tend to have high dividend yield and large market capitalization. We also find the certificates tend to mature soon after the ex-dividend dates of the underlying assets.     

Product differentiation and efficiencies in the retail banking industry

We empirically quantify the welfare implications of bank entry in the United States between 2000 and 2008. We use a fully structural framework that combines a differentiated demand model with an endogenous product model to investigate the market outcomes. We find no evidence for under- or over-entry. Compared with the socially efficient outcome, there is a mild welfare loss resulting from banks entering wrong locations in product space. Compared with the observed outcome, consumer surplus drops by 20–38% and bank profits decline by 48–59% when banks are homogeneous. Therefore product differentiation significantly improves welfare under free entry.     

Do voluntary disclosures of product and business expansion plans impact analyst coverage and forecasts?

We investigate whether voluntary disclosures of product and business expansion plans affect analyst coverage and forecasts. We find that the level of analyst coverage is positively associated with the incidence of disclosures of product and business expansion plans. We also find that product and business expansion disclosures increase the informativeness of analyst earnings forecasts. We find no evidence that product and business expansion disclosures increase analyst forecast errors. Overall, our study contributes to understanding the role of product and business expansion disclosures in analyst forecast behaviour.     

开放条件下我国本土企业升级能力的影响因素研究-基于昆山制造业企业问卷的分析

本文在大量调研问卷基础之上,以昆山本土制造业企业为样本,从微观层面实证研究了开放条件下我国本土企业升级能力的主要影响因素。经验研究表明:在有效控制企业创新活动、企业人力资本以及企业规模相关变量后,出口因素对本土企业升级能力的提升具有显著作用,从而证实了"出口中学习"效应的存在;为外资企业提供外向配套,不仅为本土企业技术创新提供了激励和可能,也为吸收跨国公司消极型和积极型"技术外溢"等提供了重要机会,从而有利于本土企业升级能力的提升;产业集聚效应同样对我国本土企业升级能力的提升具有显著影响,说明在开放条件下形成的产业集聚在现阶段所带来的技术扩散和外溢效应是显著的。结论为我们理解开放条件下本土企业升级能力的影响因素提供了中国昆山地区的实践经验,具有重要启示。     

低碳经济下企业节能减排技术改造进化博弈分析

为了分析低碳经济环境下环境监测部门与企业在节能减排技术改造过程中的博弈,假设博弈双方在有限理性条件下,建立了环境监测部门和企业在各自不同的策略选择时的成本争收益模型,运用进化博弈理论研究了博弈双方的稳定性策略.博弈分析结果表明:企业的技术改造成本和通过技术改造后为企业带来的收益、政府对企业是否进行节能减排技术的奖励和惩罚,以及环境主管部门的重视都将直接影响企业的行为选择.     

对建设广西桂东承接产业转移示范区的思考

广西桂东承接产业转移示范区是国务院批准的第二个国家级承接产业转移示范区,它的启动和建设,对于推动广西经济快速发展,促进区域经济平衡有重大意义。本文分析了广西桂东承接产业转移示范区对中西部地区承接产业转移所起的示范作用,示范区建设的重点等问题,并提出了加快示范区建设相关对策措施。     

基于低影响开发的城市河道规划

近年来,城市化进程迅猛,增加了洪涝风险。本文通过分析城市化对防洪的影响,提出了基于低影响开发的城市河道规划,实现河道的生态功能。