The relative importance of demand and supply shocks some international evidence

In this paper the contribution of demand and supply shocks of the fluctuation of output and employment is analyzed using quarterly data for four countries (USA, UK, FRG and Switzerland) covering the period 1966 to 1988 in a long run restricted VAR framework for employment, output, the interest rate and inflation. For the USA output and employment fluctuations seem to be dominated by supply shocks in theshort and long run, whereas interest and price level variations are dominated by demand shocks. The result obtained with German and Swiss data are, however, different with two respects: The contribution of demand shocks to output and employment fluctuations are substantial up to a time horizon of eight quarters and price level variations, are at least in the short run, dominated by supply disturbances. Finally, the analysis of the UK data shows the US pattern of results for employment and the price level, but demand shocks are important for output up to four quarters and interest rate movements are dominated by supply shocks.     

Using survey data to test market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets

The paper uses cointegration methods to test the market efficiency hypothesis (MEH) in the foreign exchange markets. Four exchange rates are considered-all relative to the US dollar: BP, DM, SF and JY. Survey data on expectations are used to see whether the violation of the MEH is due to expectational errors or risk premia. The results differ for the one-week ahead and the one-month ahead forecasts. With the weekly data we conclude that it is risk premia, and with the monthly data it is both expectational errors and risk premia that account for the violation of the MEH. Given the volatility of the exchange markets, it appears that forecasts over an extended period fail tests of rationality, but one-week ahead forecasts do not fail such tests.     

POLONIA dynamics during the years 2006–2012 and the effectiveness of the monetary Policy of the National Bank of Poland

In the study we investigate the effectiveness of the National Bank of Poland in counteracting the negative results of the financial crisis in the Polish interbank market. The situation was exceptional in a sense, that during the period of the financial crisis the Polish interbank market experienced liquidity surplus, and the main problem of the central bank was to regain confidence among commercial banks and stimulate interbank transactions. We concentrate on the spread between the rate of overnight interbank loans and the reference rate and based upon its dynamics we assess the monetary policy of the Polish central bank. Using econometric techniques we study how the central bank influenced the spread, when its control over it weakened and when was it strengthened. The study is supported by the results of the survey directed to the headquarters of commercial banks. We conclude that the ability of the central bank to control overnight rate was temporarily lost during the first phases of the financial crisis, but gradually regained after implementation of the confidence pact.     

Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts

Many democratic decision making institutions involve quorum rules. Such rules are commonly motivated by concerns about the “legitimacy” or “representativeness” of decisions reached when only a subset of eligible voters participates. A prominent example of this can be found in the context of direct democracy mechanisms, such as referenda and initiatives. We conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate the consequences of the two most common types of quorum rules: a participation quorum and an approval quorum. We find that both types of quora lead to lower participation rates, dramatically increasing the likelihood of full-fledged electoral boycotts on the part of those who endorse the Status Quo. This discouraging effect is significantly larger under a participation quorum than under an approval quorum.     

A network approach to modeling the multi-echelon spare-part inventory system with backorders and interval-valued demand

A multi-echelon inventory system implies the existence of a hierarchy of stocking locations, and the dependence and interaction between them. We consider a multi-echelon, spare-part inventory management problem with outsourcing and backordering. The problem is characterized by deterministic repair time/cost, and supply and demand that lie within prescribed intervals and that vary over time. The objective is to minimize the total inventory and transportation costs. We develop a network model for problem analysis and present a network flow algorithm for solving the problem. We prove that the Wagner-Whitin property, known for the lot-sizing problem, can be extended to the spare-part inventory management problem under study.