11. Population forecasting

Forecasts of future trends in population are as central to the contemporary pessimism about the future as they were to that of certain classical economists at the beginning of the 19th century. Here earlier forecasts are examined to see how the methodology has changed and if past performance justifies the placing of much confidence in contemporary forecasts. The emphasis is upon British and American experience and upon total population sizes (rather than age or sex breakdowns). A concluding section raises the question of today's world population situation and the context of The Limits to Growth population considerations.     

4. The population sub-system

The overall behaviour of the World 3 model is not highly sensitive to the behaviour of the population sub-system. This is divided into two parts, fertility and mortality, and each are examined here as being important in their own right, although the fact that many of the relationships could be subject to policy decisions is noted as a major problem in building the model.     

Perspectives on the implementation of employee rights programs

In the past decade, employee rights have been an increasingly important and complex issue. This paper examines the benefits of successfully implementing employee rights programs and outlines factors that influence effective implementation. This includes a discussion of three general organizational approaches to employee rights issues and contextual factors that influence successful implementation of employee rights programs.Never in American history has there been so much confusion over the prerogatives of managers to manage and the rights of their subordinates to be managed within limits. On this point, if nothing else, there is complete agreement... (Ewing, 1983, p. 1)     

Would you mind completing this survey: Assessing the state of survey research in supply chain management

In supply chain management, survey research is one of the primary methodologies used by researchers to generate empirical data. Critical to its effectiveness is an acceptable response rate. Recently, concerns have been raised regarding perceived falling response rates. Using data taken from 464 survey-based studies, as drawn from five representative journals that publish survey-based supply chain studies, this study assesses whether these concerns are valid. Furthermore, it assesses whether the various tactics recommended for improving response rates have been successful. The findings indicate that (1) responses rates have been falling (with a significant decrease beginning in 2001); (2) it is difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of the various techniques because of unevenness in reporting of techniques used; and, (3) response rates are significantly influenced by factors such as the number of questions, source of survey population, method of survey delivery, specific respondents targeted, and use of prequalification/pre-notification.     

Do non-citizens affect U.S. Congressional elections?

U.S. citizens against immigration argue that immigrants commit voter fraud and skew election outcomes towards progressive candidates. These arguments have increased in number and severity since the Supreme Court ruled in 2013 that states cannot require photo identification from voters. We examine whether the size of the non-citizen population is related to election outcomes. Previous research indicates that non-citizens sway elections in favour of progressive candidates but only in elections where the victory margin is small. We find no evidence of a relationship between non-citizens and vote outcomes. We find evidence that the percent of the population that is non-white is positively related to percent of votes cast for democratic candidates.     

Assessing New Product Development Practices and Performance: Establishing Crucial Norms

In 1968 and 1982 cross-sectional studies of the conduct and performance of new product development were reported, the wide-ranging results of which have been widely reproduced and cited as norms for product development. Since the more recent study, many changes in the practice and environment of product development have occurred. Albert Page describes the findings of a new cross-sectional study, sponsored by PDMA, which reports on the current status of new product development and updates those commonly referred to norms. On the one hand, this article reports that the state of practice, covering both structure and process, has improved, although there is still substantial room for further improvement. On the other hand, the results for five different measures of firm and program performance indicate these practice improvements have not resulted in notable improvements in the overall performance of the new product development activity within the responding companies.     

Scoping the Extent of Tourist Road Safety: Motor Vehicle Transport Accidents in New Zealand 1982-1996

There is a growing interest in tourism safety within the travel medicine and safety management literature. From this body of research, motor vehicle traffic accidents (MVTA) are identified as a leading cause of tourist morbidity and mortality. There is, however, a dearth of tourist road safety literature where the tourism context is taken into account. This paper examines the extent of overseas visitor MVTA in New Zealand, based on data collected by the New Zealand Health Information Service for the 15-year period 1982–1996. Some 1604 MVTA cases were recorded in the NZHIS database for non-New Zealand residents, representing 27.4% of all non-resident injuries resulting in hospitalisation during the period of the study. The majority of these incidents involved collisions between vehicles, with 1121 (70% of MVTA cases) involving a car. Highest counts of MVTA were found for males and females in the 20–39 years age range. Largest proportions of MVTA were observed for the Auckland, Otago and Southland regions, although highest incidence rates (based on visitor numbers in each region for the year 1995/6) were found for the Taranaki, Northland, Marlborough, Hawkes Bay and Southland regions. The paper discusses possible reasons for patterns and trends in the MVTA data, drawing on comparisons with existing international studies from the travel medicine and safety management literature.     

Product systems marketing

Today more industrial companies are turning to the marketing of systems to satisfy the more extended and complex needs of their customers. Yet there is little knowledge available to guide them in evaluating the merits of adopting the systems marketing approach. This article presents a marketing analysis of the systems strategy and its implications for potential adopters.