Pricing mortgage insurance contracts under housing price cycles with jump risk: evidence from the U.K. housing market

Previous studies have investigated the determinants of housing price cycles in the housing market; however, we observed the phenomenon of housing price jumps in the 2007 subprime crisis. This paper presents a discussion on the housing price cycle and abnormal price jumps to describe the behavior of housing prices in the United Kingdom. The empirical results show that the impact factors of housing cycles are market risk and the switching factor. Furthermore, the impact factors of jump risks include the bursting of the housing bubble and financial crises. Therefore, in this paper, we employ the Markov switching model with jump risks to value the MI contracts and analyze the influences of housing price cycles, jump risks, risks of market interest rate, and the prepayment risks on MI premiums. The results of sensitivity analysis show that more volatile housing price index returns, as well as longer periods of higher volatility in housing prices, raise MI premiums. Moreover, the MI premium is positively related to the absolute value of the average jump amplitude and the shock frequency of abnormal events. There is the tradeoff between the market interest rate and the prepayment risk. The influences of market interest rate are different on MI premium with/without prepayment risks.     

Antecedents of retailer loyalty: Simultaneously investigating channel push and consumer pull effects

This study includes information technology (IT) related industries as the focus and aims to examine the antecedents of retailer loyalty toward brand owners by simultaneously investigating push and pull effects in the channel system. The study interviews 274 independent retailers who sell IT related products to end consumers. The results show that the retailer perceived value of selling the brand owner's products plays a pivotal role in promoting their loyalty toward the brand owners. Retailer loyalty toward brand owners comes directly from brand owners' push efforts, and indirectly from pull effects. Additionally, the specific asset invested by each party (brand owners, retailers, and customers) strengthens the relationship within each other in the channel system.     

房产税改革、经济增长与金融稳定

本文通过构建嵌入税收楔子、住房抵押融资约束和银行监管约束的多部门DSGE模型,考察了面向家庭和企业两大住房持有主体实施统一税基评估率和差别税基评估率的房产税政策对经济增长和金融稳定的长期影响,并比较分析了两类房产税改革方案对经济波动和金融风险的短期影响。研究发现:在长期,房产税通过对房价的"抑制效应"和对住房的"再分配效应",有利于促进经济增长,提振居民消费,并能有效抑制家庭杠杆的过度上升和资产泡沫风险。在短期,征收房产税不会加大系统性金融风险的冲击强度,因而不会对维护金融稳定产生不利影响。不同的房产税政策对经济增长和金融稳定的影响存在差异,相较统一税基评估率的房产税,差别税基评估率的房产税在长期能更好地促进金融活动和实体经济的协调发展,对经济增长的促进作用更强,有利于实现"稳增长""防风险"和"促改革"的统一。     

数量型货币政策调控有助于金融稳定吗——基于时变货币需求的货币政策有效性再评价

金融稳定事关经济与金融发展全局,维护实体经济与金融体系的双重稳定已成为新时代中国宏观经济调控的重要任务.通过对中国货币需求的动态评估,为数量型货币政策立场提供了一个评价基准,并基于此对数量型货币政策有效性与非对称性特征进行再评价.结果 表明:首先,现代金融环境下,国民收入、金融资产以及支付手段创新因素对货币需求存在正向影响,机会成本与货币替代因素则在一定程度上抑制了货币需求;其次,货币缺口可以用来合理划分数量型货币政策立场,以货币需求为基准、货币缺口为指示器的数量型货币政策整体有效,并且可以兼顾对宏观经济和金融体系的双重调控;最后,中国数量型货币政策效应具有典型的非对称性特征,其中紧缩性货币政策具有较强的产出效应,而扩张性货币政策的价格效应和金融稳定效应则更为显著.这些研究结论或可为切实提高数量型货币政策在通胀预期管理、保障宏观经济平稳运行并有效维护金融稳定等方面的效应提供有益的政策启示.     

A dynamic general equilibrium model for public R&D investment in Taiwan

In terms of economic development policies, public research and development (R&D) investment may be one of the most critical and useful tools in Taiwan, having frequently played a role in leading related overall investment in Taiwan. Although the impact channels of R&D investment are varied and complex, its benefits in terms of the development of human capital, industrial productivity, and basic research are clear. With the rapid growth of the private sector in the Taiwan economy, it is, however, debatable whether the government should continue to use the public financial budget to invest in R&D. By using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the impact of public R&D investment on the economy in Taiwan, the empirical evidence of the present paper is that public R&D investment gives rise to different short-term and medium-term impacts on real GDP that are mostly felt in the third or fourth years of their implementation among different industries. These impacts then gradually converge back to equilibrium in the long run. Public R&D investment boosts the technology of high-tech industries and increases exports, but it also crowds out the output of primary industries. Although the public R&D investment has a positive effect on the real wage, its effect on inflation should not be overlooked. Because of the pros and cons surrounding the impact of public R&D investment on industries and the economy, the study provided by the present paper can serve as valuable reference not only to decision-makers in government agencies but also to academic researchers.     

农户人际关系网络结构、交易成本与违约倾向

在契约型农产品交易关系稳定性的研究中,很少有学者关注到社会网络因素对交易关系的影响.本文以农户与农产品收购企业之间的契约型交易关系为研究对象,运用结构方程模型检验了农户人际关系网络结构特征对农户交易成本及其违约倾向的影响.研究结果表明:农户人际关系网络密度对农户的信息成本和监督成本具有显著的负向影响,而农户人际关系网络中心性对农户的信息成本和监督成本具有显著的正向影响;农户信息成本和监督成本的增加会显著增强农户的违约倾向.     

并购重组中大股东补偿承诺与中小股东权益保护——基于苏宁环球与世荣兆业的比较案例研究

我们对2007年以来并购重组中大股东盈利补偿的统计发现,补偿方式主要有两种:现金补偿和股份回购(或赠送股份)补偿,而且具有明显的时间特征,即2009年11月之前均采用现金补偿方案,之后基本上采用了股份回购(或赠送股份)的补偿方案。在此基础上,通过上市公司和大股东两个层面分析出两种补偿方案均在一定程度上保护了中小股东的权益,其中,股份回购方案比现金补偿方案更能改善上市公司财务状况和经营业绩,同时更能制约大股东在并购重组活动中对过高评估或过高盈利预测的冲动,因而更能保护中小股东权益。     

大学生网络创业模式与支持体系理论研究

大学生就业问题已成为经济生活中的主要问题,随着网络经济的崛起,大学生网络创业已成为解决大学生就业问题的一个重要渠道和平台。文章总结了技术创业、营销创业、网络加盟店这三种大学生网络创业模式,分析得出网络创业模式的发展方向,并提出大学生网络创业支持体系框架。     

Effects of Employees' Uniform on Company Image and Employees' Self-perceptions and Customers' Perceptions

The purpose of the study is to investigate how different styles of employee uniforms affect customers' perceptions of the hotel image and employees' self-perceptions. The results of the study indicated a significant relationship between uniforms and employees' job performance. Significance also existed between employees' job satisfaction and styles of uniform. A significant relationship between styles of uniform and customers' perception of employee performance was found as well.     

Electoral information in developed stock market: testing conditional heteroscedasticity in the market model

By about 1988, the consensus among leading health economists was that no meaningful differences existed among hospitals of differences owernership form, and this position was embraced by the Antitrust Division of the US Department of Justice. But behavioural differences among hospitals of different among hospitals of different owernership has continued to be a matter of both academic and judicial interest. Recent empirical studies have concluded that real differences do exist, while many earlier studies reached the opposite conclusion. This contradiction in finding over time, as competition intensified, is exactly opposite to what expense-preference theory would predict. We examine this apparent paradox, using a very general test of behavioural differences by hospital ownership. We find that the omission of location-specific variables can lead to biased estimates of ownership effects, and that no significant behavioural differences exist among private California hospitals in 1986–90, when this source of ownership endogeneity is eliminated.