ENDOGENOUS JOB CONTACT NETWORKS

We develop a model where workers, anticipating the risk of becoming unemployed, invest in connections in order to access information about available jobs that other workers may have. The investment in connections is high when the job separation rate in the labor market is moderate, whereas it is low for either low or high levels of job separation rate. The equilibrium response of network investment to changes in the labor market conditions generates novel empirical predictions. In particular, the probability that a worker finds a new job via his connections increases in the separation rate when the separation rate is low, whereas it decreases when the separation rate is high. These predictions are supported by the empirical patterns that we document for the U.K. labor market.     

Fast traders and slow price adjustments: an artificial market with strategic interaction and transaction costs

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - In this paper, we propose an artificial market to model high-frequency trading where fast traders use threshold rules strategically to issue...     

Behavioral premium principles

Decisions in Economics and Finance - We define a premium principle under the continuous cumulative prospect theory which extends the equivalent utility principle. In prospect theory, risk attitude...     

Supply or Demand,that is the Question: Decomposing Euro Area Inflation

Intereconomics - This paper studies the recent trends in inflation in the euro area and estimates to what extent the current inflationary pressures are driven by demand expansion and by supply side...     

DYNAMIC TRADING VOLUME

We derive the process followed by trading volume, in a market with finite depth and constant investment opportunities, where a large investor, with a long horizon and constant relative risk aversion, trades a safe and a risky asset. Trading volume approximately follows a Gaussian, mean‐reverting diffusion, and increases with depth, volatility, and risk aversion. Unlike the frictionless theory, finite depth excludes leverage and short sales because such positions may not be solvent even with continuous trading.     

Choquet Rationality

Consider a decision problem under uncertainty for a decision maker with known (utility) payoffs over prizes. We say that an act is Choquet (Shafer, Bernoulli) rational if for some capacity (belief function, probability) over the set of states, it maximizes her “expected” utility. We show that an act may be Choquet rational without being Bernoulli rational, but it is Choquet rational if and only if it is Shafer rational. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, D81.     

Multiple versus Single Banking Relationships: Theory and Evidence

A theory of the optimal number of banking relationships is developed and tested using matched bank-firm data. According to the theory, relationship banks may be unable to continue funding profitable projects owing to internal problems and a firm may thus have to refinance from nonrelationship banks. The latter, however, face an adverse selection problem, as they do not know the quality of the project, and may refuse to lend. In these circumstances, multiple banking can reduce the probability of an early liquidation of the project. The empirical evidence supports the predictions of the model.     

Summary of Findings of the Guido Carli Association's Second International Conference

Open Economies Review -     

Quoted spreads and trade imbalance dynamics in the European Treasury bond market

Using high-frequency transaction data for the three largest European markets (France, Germany and Italy), this paper documents the existence of an asymmetric relationship between market liquidity and trading imbalances: when quoted spreads rise (fall) and liquidity falls (increases) buy (sell) orders tend to prevail. Risk-averse market-makers, with inventory-depletion risk being their main concern, tend to quote wider (narrower) spreads when they think bond appreciation is more (less) likely to occur. It is also found that the probability of being in a specific regime is related to observable bond market characteristics, stock market volatility, macroeconomic releases and liquidity management operations of the monetary authorities.