Evolving Efficiency of Dually-Listed Indian Stocks: A Nonlinear Perspective

This paper examines the degree of efficiency of Indian ADRs and their underlying stocks trading in NSE/BSE from an adaptive markets hypothesis (AMH) perspective that is theoretically grounded in nonlinear serial dependence. For this purpose, the authors employ the windowed as well as the rolling hinich bicorrelation test procedures on ADRs and the underlying stocks issued by Indian firms such as, and limited to, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Wipro, Tata Motors, and Sterlite Industries. The study’s findings indicate that the degree of market efficiency witnessed at the level of individual scrips (ADRs or underlying domestic stocks) differs considerably from the degree of efficiency of the broader stock market in which such scrips trade. Further, the degree of efficiency witnessed amidst all US and Indian scrips considered for this study was found to be heterogeneous in nature and in-turn warrants a ranking approach. Lastly, the degree of efficiency witnessed in certain (not all) dually-listed Indian scrips was found to be homogenous across trading locations. However, this does not happen to be the case for all other dually-listed scrips considered for this study. The study’s findings bring to light the need for disaggregated, firm level market efficiency studies aimed at examining firm-level market efficiency at different trading locations and in-turn identifying the antecedents behind homogeneity (or lack-thereof) in firm-level market efficiency across multiple trading locations.

     

A stochastic dynamic model of trade and growth: Convergence and diversification

There is a growing literature that studies the properties of models that combine international trade and neoclassical growth theory, but mostly in a deterministic setting. In this paper we introduce uncertainty in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model and characterize the equilibrium of a small open economy in such an environment. We show that, when trade is balanced period-by-period, the per capita output and consumption of a small open economy converge to an invariant distribution that is independent of the initial wealth. Further, at the invariant distribution, there are periods in which the small economy diversifies. Numerical simulations show that the speed of convergence increases with the size of the shocks. In the limit, when there is no uncertainty, there is no convergence and countries may specialize permanently. The paper highlights the role of market incompleteness, as a result of the period-by-period trade balance, in this setup. Through an analytical example we also illustrate the importance of country specific risk in delivering our results.     

Evaluating cross-sectional forecasting models for implied cost of capital

The computation of implied cost of capital (ICC) is constrained by the lack of analyst forecasts for half of all firms. Hou et al. (J Account Econ 53:504–526, 2012, HVZ) present a cross-sectional model to generate forecasts in order to compute ICC. However, the forecasts from the HVZ model perform worse than those from a naïve random walk model and the ICCs show anomalous correlations with risk factors. We present two parsimonious alternatives to the HVZ model: the EP model based on persistence in earnings and the RI model based on the residual income model from Feltham and Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:689–732, 1996). Both models outperform the HVZ model in terms of forecast bias, accuracy, earnings response coefficients, and correlations of the ICCs with future returns and risk factors. We recommend that future research use the RI model or the EP model to generate earnings forecasts.     

Is the decline in the value relevance of accounting driven by increased conservatism?

This paper examines the association between conservatism and the value relevance of accounting information over the 1975 through 2004 period. We measure conservatism using approaches developed in Penman and Zhang, The Accounting Review 77:237–264, (2002) and Beaver and Ryan, Journal of Accounting Research 38:127–148, (2000) and value relevance using (1) adjusted R ² from regressions of price on earnings and book values, (2) adjusted R ² from regressions of returns on earnings and changes in earnings, and (3) returns earned by perfect foresight of earnings and book values. We find no evidence that firms with increasing conservatism exhibit greater declines in value relevance. Rather, we observe most significant declines in value relevance for firms where conservatism has not increased. When we adjust financial statements for the effects of conservatism, we find that the value relevance of adjusted numbers is generally lower and trends in value relevance unaffected. Based on these results, it is implausible that increasing conservatism drives the decline in value relevance.     

Immerisizing Growth in a Monopolistic Competition Model

In models of trade with monpolistic competition, firms set prices above marginal cost. An example is provided in this paper in which, because of this, a growth in the labor force lowers welfare per capita.