Agent-Based Facilitation of Water Allocation: Case Study in the Drome River Valley

The purpose of the 1992 French Water Act is to encourage negotiation and dialogue among local stakeholders within a framework which is very similar to a patrimonial approach. Potential use of models in such post-normal approaches is analyzed. Two kinds of models are compared: one is agent-based, the other follows a more classical approach. They are compared according to their contributions as negotiation support tools. This comparison is based on a specific collective decision process dealing with water allocation at the sub-basin scale, in which authors are involved. Both are used to support collective decision processes through simulation of resource use dynamics. Agent-Based Models entail the broadening of spatial information of actors in the process, revealing inter-connected topics not taken into consideration earlier. This makes it possible to remain relevant, despite the sometimes rapidly evolving stakes. The central point of this paper is the implementation, within a practical application, of theories advocating the use of ABM as a collective decision support system. This application promotes a better understanding of the kind of support ABM provides and the way it does so. This is brought about more by re-framing the discussion and modifying the representation of the system on the part of the stakeholders than by providing specific agreements.     

Subsampling the distribution of diverging statistics with applications to finance

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution of statistics diverging at either known or unknown rates when the underlying time series is strictly stationary and strong mixing. Based on our results we provide a detailed discussion of how to estimate extreme order statistics with dependent data and present two applications to assessing financial market risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk and provides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizing Safety First portfolio selection.     

Quotas and equilibrium relative prices in the trade restricting country

This paper is concerned with the effects of international trade restriction through quotas. It is shown that a casual relationship exists between the fraction of licences distributed domestically, the terms of trade, and the domestic relative price of the importable.     

A note on tariffs,quotas and the Metzler Paradox: An alternative approach

Conclusions Under the given assumptions, the introduction of an import quota always results in a price increase of the scarce factor. This conclusion confirms that of Falvey [1975] that the Metzler Paradox cannot occur with import quotas. Moreover, we have shown this to be true regardless of the new terms of trade. The introduction of an import quota will, in general, lead to a lower welfare level. This holds for non-prohibitive protection in those situations in which the terms of trade either remain unchanged or worsen. If the terms of trade improve, a higher welfare level can be attained depending on the degree of the improvement and on the size of the quota. The development of the terms of trade can be used as an indication of the price increase of the scarce factor. The more favourable the new terms of trade for the trade restricting country, the greater the advantage accruing to the scarce factor. The effectiveness of the protective measures for distributional purposes coincides thus with the development of the terms of trade.     

Risk and the cross section of stock returns

This paper mathematically transforms unobservable rational expectation equilibrium model parameters (information precision and supply uncertainty) into a single variable that is correlated with expected returns and that can be estimated with recently observed data. Our variable can be used to explain the cross section of returns in theoretical, numerical, and empirical analyses. Using Center for Research in Security Prices data, we show that a −1σ$-1\sigma$ to +1σ$+1\sigma$ change in our variable is associated with a 0.31% difference in average returns the following month (equaling 3.78% per annum). The results are statistically significant at the 1% level. Our results remain economically and statistically significant after controlling for stocks' market capitalizations, book-to-market ratios, liquidities, and the probabilities of information-based trading.     

A Meta‐Analysis of the Union–Job Satisfaction Relationship

The purpose of this study is to provide a systematic and quantitative review of the existing empirical evidence on the effects of unionization on overall job satisfaction. We conducted a meta‐regression analysis (MRA) with results from a pool of 235 estimates from 59 studies published between 1978 and 2015. The accumulated evidence indicates that unionization is negatively related to job satisfaction but is far from being conclusive. When primary studies control for endogeneity of union membership, the results of the MRA indicate that the difference in job satisfaction between unionized and non‐unionized workers disappears. These results suggest that reverse causation (i.e. dissatisfied workers are more likely to join a union) and time‐varying endogenous effects play a key role in explaining the relationship between unionization and job satisfaction.     

Increasing the usability and accessibility of geodynamic modelling tools to the geoscience community: UnderworldGUI

Geoscientists are faced with a number of complexities that represent obstacles to the development of realistic simulation of deep earth processes. Realistic 4D thermo-mechanical simulation using software packages like Underworld and Gale, when combined appropriately with geoscientific expertise, can lead to novel insights into the deformation of geological structures at a wide range of time and spatial scales. The challenge for end-user geoscientists lies in applying their knowledge within the framework of the software’s input specification, including initial, internal, and boundary conditions and output visualization parameters. We have built a Graphical User Interface (GUI) to remove many of the difficulties related to editing the Extensible Markup Language (XML) encoded input files of Underworld/Gale geomodels and therefore, to greatly broaden the user base of these software packages. By helping Underworld/Gale to meet a large audience, we provide a tool to the geoscience community that helps to move from untested conceptual models to physically valid, properly scaled modelling. Furthermore, the UnderworldGUI offers a mechanism for storing and retrieving experimental models in a centralised database, thus providing the geoscience community with a means to share the outcomes of its experimental research. Further details of the UnderworldGUI are available at the web site http://www.wiki.vislab.usyd.edu.au/moinwiki/UnderworldGUI.     

Delivering Customer-Oriented Behaviour through Empowerment: An Empirical Test of HRM Assumptions

Organizational initiatives to strengthen customer orientation among front-line service workers abound, and have led many commentators to speak of the reconstitution of service work. These interventions rest on managers' assumptions about what engenders the desired customer-oriented behaviours among employees. We evaluate those assumptions in the context of a major change initiative in a supermarket firm. The logic of the programme mirrors key precepts in the contemporary management literature. These are that management behaviour, job design and values-based training can produce a sense of empowerment among employees, and that empowerment will generate prosocial customer-oriented behaviour. Using data from a large scale employee survey, we test the validity of those assumptions. Employees who perceived management behaviour in a positive light and who had participated in values-based training were more likely to feel empowered (i.e. to have internalized prosocial service values and to feel a sense of competence and autonomy on the job). Psychological empowerment was, in turn, positively related to the customer-oriented behaviour of workers. This study, therefore, provides support for key assumptions underlying HRM theory and practice in services.     

Tax havens compliance with international standards: A temporal perspective

This paper contributes to the debate centering on the fight against aggressive tax avoidance practices through the release of international standards. We develop a model in which identical tax havens decide upon their compliance date while competing for onshore capital. The timing of these decisions depends on the effects of two opposing forces. One force is linked to the tax sensitivity of international capital and the other to the reaction of nearby potential capital. When the former force dominates, asynchronous compliance arises, which occurs even with identical tax havens and perfect information. However, when the latter force dominates, tax havens comply simultaneously. In any case, the loss of tax base within the onshore region is minimized when compliance is simultaneous and occurs at the earliest possible date. Surprisingly, compliance of just one tax haven is not necessarily better than no compliance at all.     

From equality to inequality: The Diamond–Sen criticism of Harsanyi's criterion of social justice

It is difficult to resolve conflicts of interests even in a society consisting of identical persons. Such an issue has been perceived as a serious difficulty posed to Harsanyi's axiomatic utilitarianism by Diamond's critique which Sen seemed to approve. Recent treatments tried to resolve this criticism by modifying Harsanyi's analytical framework so as to render it immune to Diamond's view about fairness. This paper shows that Diamond's view of fairness may be read as a "simple form" of Rawls' justice as fairness; and hence its clash with Harsanyi's social welfare criterion reflects the Harsanyi–Rawls debate about social justice. Sen's position on the debate is also discussed. In the case where individual preferences share some common characteristics in the manner described in Harsanyi's 1955 axiomatization of utilitarianism, various conceptions of equal treatment of equals are possible. To each of these conceptions corresponds a specific social welfare function, and there is no way to find which one is the best, from the scientific or ethical points of view.