Detecting Asymmetric Price Transmission with Consistent Threshold along the Fish Supply Chain

The present study deals with asymmetric price transmission (APT) along the fish value chain by using a consistent threshold autoregressive (consistent TAR and momentum‐threshold autoregressive [M‐TAR]) model. A nonzero threshold captures strategic behaviors and adjustment costs that are not observable with small price changes around a zero threshold. Fish farming, because of greater control over supply, is expected to produce less asymmetry than wild harvesting. Asymmetry is notwithstanding found for both wild cod and farmed salmon marketed in France, but only with consistent thresholds and operating in opposite ways. The results are discussed with regard to the trade restrictions imposed by the Common Fisheries Policy. Cet article traite de l’asymétrie de transmission des prix (ATP) dans la filière des produits de la mer en utilisant un modèle autorégressif à effet de seuil (consistent TAR et M‐TAR). Un seuil non nul permet de révéler certains comportements stratégiques et des coûts fixes d’ajustement qui ne seraient pas observables sur de faibles variations de prix autour d’un seuil nul. On s’attend à ce que l’aquaculture, en vertu d’un degré de contrôle supérieur sur l’offre, engendre une plus faible asymétrie comparativement à la production halieutique. Une asymétrie de transmission est néanmoins observée à la fois dans le cas du cabillaud sauvage et du saumon d’élevage commercialisés en France, mais uniquement à partir de seuils endogènes et l’ATP agissant en sens opposé. Les résultats sont commentés au regard des restrictions commerciales imposés par la Politique Commune des Pêches européenne.     

Fewer Fish for Higher Profits? Price Response and Economic Incentives in Global Tuna Fisheries Management

This paper evaluates industry-wide economic incentives arising from changes in product prices in an industry exploiting a common renewable resource (tropical tunas) that is regulated via output limits. Changes in prices alter economic incentives by affecting revenues, profits, conservation, and nonmarket public benefits. Economic incentives in industries exploiting common resources have been examined from multiple angles. However, industry level variation in market prices arising from changes in public regulation has not been explored. We analyse the impact on economic incentives due to changes in output limits and market prices through estimation of ex-vessel price and scale flexibilities for imported skipjack and yellowfin in Thailand’s cannery market. The unitary scale flexibility, estimated from the General Synthetic Inverse Demand Systems, indicates no loss in revenue and even potential profit increases resulting from lower harvest levels that could arise from lower catch limits. However, for a revenue neutral or positive outcome to be achieved, the three inter-governmental tuna Regional Fisheries Management Organizations, which manage the majority of the yellowfin and skipjack tuna in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, would have to coordinate multilaterally to set the catch limits for both species.     

Mean‐variance efficiency of the market portfolio and futures trading

We derived an intertemporal capital asset pricing model in which the mean‐variance efficiency of the market portfolio is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition. We obtained this result by modeling a frictionless, continuously open financial market in which nonredundant futures contracts are available for trade, in addition to cash assets. Introducing such contracts modifies the way investors optimally allocate their wealth. Their portfolios then comprise the riskless asset, a perturbed mean‐variance‐efficient portfolio of cash assets, and a perturbed mean‐variance‐efficient portfolio of futures contracts. Furthermore, a (3 + K) mutual fund separation is obtained, with K being the number of economic state variables, in lieu of the usual (2 + K) fund separation. Mean‐variance efficiency of the market portfolio is a necessary condition only when cash assets are the sole traded assets. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:329–346, 2001     

Bernoulli speculator and trading strategy risk

In a continuous‐time model of a complete information economy, we examine the case of a “pure” speculator who chooses to trade only on forward or futures contracts written on interest‐rate‐sensitive instruments. Assuming logarithmic utility, we assess whether his strategy exhibits the same structure as when he uses primitive assets only. It turns out that when interest rates follow stochastic processes, as in the model of Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992), where the instantaneous forward rate is driven by an arbitrary number of factors, the speculative trading strategy involving forwards exhibits an extra term vis‐a‐vis the one using futures or primitive assets. This extra term, different from a Merton–Breeden dynamic hedge, is novel and can be interpreted as a hedge against an “endogenous risk,” namely the interest‐rate risk brought about by the optimal trading strategy itself. Thus, only the strategy using futures (or the cash assets themselves) involves a single speculative term, even for the Bernoulli speculator. This result illustrates another major aspect of the marking to market feature that differentiates futures and forwards, and thus has some bearing on the issue of the optimal design of financial contracts. Real financial markets being, in fact, incomplete, the additional “endogenous” risk associated with forwards cannot be hedged perfectly. Since using futures eliminates the latter, risk‐averse agents will find them attractive in relation to forward contracts, other things being equal. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20: 507–523, 2000     

Does Agricultural Productivity Actually Matter for Food Security in a Landlocked Sub‐Saharan African Country? The Case of Burkina Faso

This paper makes use of a Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the impact of two agricultural productivity trends on poor households’ food security in Burkina Faso: a negative trend that could arise from many different factors, including land degradation, climate change, and harmful agricultural practices; and a positive trend which may result from enhanced public investment in agriculture, notably in research and development, extension, irrigation, rural roads, rural electrification, and rural education. The results point to a high sensitivity of the poor's consumption to agricultural productivity as well as to stronger impacts on the urban poor than on the rural poor. The current situation is already characterized by severe food insecurity, such that a decline in agricultural productivity is likely to further plunge the urban poor into a deep food crisis. By contrast, positive agricultural productivity trends may help alleviate poverty and food insecurity. Agricultural productivity may indeed affect the poor's food consumption mainly through large changes in agricultural prices and real incomes. Cet article utilise un modèle d’Équilibre Général Calculable pour analyser l'impact des différentes tendances de la productivité agricole sur la sécurité alimentaire des ménages pauvres au Burkina Faso. D'une part, les tendances négatives peuvent résulter de plusieurs facteurs, y compris la dégradation des terres, le changement climatique, et les pratiques agricoles nuisibles. D'autre part, la tendance positive peut résulter de l'investissement public accru dans l'agriculture, notamment dans la recherche et développement, la vulgarisation, l'irrigation, les routes rurales, l′électrification rurale et l′éducation rurale. Les résultats montrent une sensibilité élevée de la consommation des pauvres à la productivité agricole, ainsi que des impacts plus forts sur les populations urbaines pauvres. La situation actuelle est déjà caractérisée par une insécurité alimentaire grave de sorte qu'une baisse de la productivité agricole est susceptible de plonger davantage les pauvres en milieu urbain dans une crise alimentaire profonde. En revanche, la tendance positive sur la productivité agricole peut contribuer à atténuer la pauvreté et l'insécurité alimentaire. La productivité agricole peut en effet affecter la consommation alimentaire des pauvres principalement par le biais de grandes variations des prix agricoles et des revenus réels.     

Do Ethical Values Work? A Quantitative Study of the Impact of Fair Trade Coffee on Consumer Behavior

This study investigates the large French fair trade (FT) market and the importance of FT coffee within it, in an attempt to identify some general features of FT consumers. On the basis of 7,587 transactions, the authors also determine the impact of FT characteristics on customer behavior. The main result is somewhat surprising: FT coffee purchases seem to involve a temporary commitment as FT coffee consumers appear less loyal than traditional coffee consumers. The authors derive some business and academic implications.     

Valuation of Equity-Linked Insurance and Annuity Products with Binomial Models

Abstract

In this paper we develop a valuation method for equity-linked insurance products. We assume that the premium information of term life insurances, pure endowment insurances, and endowment insurances at all maturities is obtainable within a company or from the insurance market. Using a method similar to that of Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), we derive three martingale probability measures associated with these basic insurance products. These measures are agedependent, include an adjustment for the mortality risk, and reproduce the premiums of the respective insurance products. We then extend the martingale measures to include the financial market information using copulas and use them to evaluate equity-linked insurance contracts and equity-indexed annuities in particular. This is different from the traditional approach under which diversification of mortality risk is assumed. A detailed numerical analysis is performed for various existing equity-indexed annuities in the North American market.     

On tax competition, public goods provision and jurisdictions' size

In this paper, we analyze competition among jurisdictions to attract foreign capital through low taxes and public inputs that enhance firms' productivity. The competing jurisdictions are different in size and mobility of capital is costly. We find that for moderate mobility costs, small economies can attract foreign capital by supplying higher levels of public goods than larger jurisdictions, without practicing tax undercutting. The classical result that small jurisdictions are attractive because they engage in tax dumping is recovered only for high mobility costs of capital.     

Optimal dynamic hedging in incomplete futures markets

This article derives optimal hedging demands for futures contracts from an investor who cannot freely trade his portfolio of primitive assets in the context of either a CARA or a logarithmic utility function. Existing futures contracts are not numerous enough to complete the market. In addition, in the case of CARA, the nonnegativity constraint on wealth is binding, and the optimal hedging demands are not identical to those that would be derived if the constraint were ignored. Fictitiously completing the market, we can characterize the optimal hedging demands for futures contracts. Closed-form solutions exist in the logarithmic case but not in the CARA case, since then a put (insurance) written on his wealth is implicitly bought by the investor. Although solutions are formally similar to those that obtain under complete markets, incompleteness leads in fact to second-best optima.