China Consumption to 2015——Signs of a Squeezed Middle but No Diamond

China three years from now!The world's fastest growing large economy,1.4bn+ people and you expect numbers?Forget it - a veteran economist of my acquaintance once warned me to be wary of any forecast data out of China beyond six months and never,ever trust any forecast with a decimal point.But still 500 words (approximately) are demanded.     

Regime‐dependent smile‐adjusted delta hedging

We introduce several regime‐dependent smile‐adjusted deltas and compare their efficiency with the smile‐adjusted deltas that are popular with option traders. Using years of daily option prices, out‐of‐sample hedging performance tests for options of all moneyness and maturities and daily, weekly, or fortnightly rebalancing show that even the simplest regime‐dependent smile‐adjustment consistently outperforms implied BSM delta hedging and local volatility and minimum variance smile‐adjustments. Markov‐switching deltas offer the best performance, with delta‐hedging errors often half the size of implied BSM hedging errors. During volatile markets risk reduction from regime‐dependent delta hedging is much greater than during tranquil periods.     

Injury Prevention and Safety Promotion course in a Russian Master of Public Health programme

The Global Burden of Disease Studies describe and emphasise injury as a major and increasing component in the panorama of global ill health. Russia has the one of the highest injury rates in Europe. When a Master in Public Health programme was planned and started in 2007 in Arkhangelsk, Russia, under the auspices of University of Troms?, Norway, a course on Injury Prevention and Safety Promotion was included. A take-over programme (training-the-trainers) was implemented within the course. The present paper describes the course content, the students and their background, the training-the-trainers programme, the evaluation procedure and its results. So far, 53 students have passed the course, 77% being female. The majority of students were medical doctors (51%), psychologists (11%), pedagogues (9%), dentists (6%) and nurses (6%). The take-over programme has functioned well by gradually using students of excellence as teachers. In 2012, the take-over programme is completed and only Russians teach. Evaluation by students of the course content, organisation and pedagogic approach was useful for improvements.     

Tagging the triggers: an empirical analysis of information events prompting sell-side analyst reports

In order to fulfill their function as information intermediaries in capital markets, sell-side equity analysts regularly issue updated forecasts on the stocks they cover. Quite often, the publication of (revised) analysts’ reports is subject to certain trigger events such as the publication of annual figures or the announcement of an upcoming merger. In this exploratory study, we develop a two-step procedure to identify the core events that trigger the release of analysts’ reports on companies that constitute the Dow Jones EuroSTOXX50 index during the three-year period from 2004 to 2006. These can be grouped into Financial Disclosures, Corporate Management, Corporate Strategy, Business Activity, Operating Environment and Share. The results suggest that sell-side analysts attach great importance to non-financial information events when transforming their earnings estimates into valuation forecasts and stock recommendations. Additionally, we link the information events identified as reasons of issuance to the summary measures disclosed in the reports in order to investigate the relationship between the report trigger and associated analyst reaction. Our findings indicate that the forecasting activity of sell-side analysts is greatly influenced by forward-looking statements made by management, strategy-related news flow, and non-company-specific information relating to the covered firm’s operating environment.     

Specialization,diversification, and productivity: a panel data analysis of rice farms in Korea

This article examines the microeconomics of productivity associated with specialization/diversification in production activities, with an application to Korean rice farms. Korean rice farms tend to be very small and highly specialized. Our analysis examines the productivity effects associated with both farm size and farm specialization/diversification in Korean agriculture. Relying on farm‐level panel data, the analysis studies farm productivity in a multi‐input multi‐output context, accounting not only for changes in inputs and technical change in rice production, but also for the role of diversification in the production of other crops in current and previous periods. We find positive but small productivity gains from farm diversification. These gains come mostly from complementarity effects across farm outputs, with minimal effect of scale economies. The positive complementarity effects work against nonconvexity effects, which provide strong productivity incentives for rice farms to specialize.     

Using Forecasting Criteria to Identify Value Relevance in the Relationship Between Accounting Numbers and Market Value

We explain and demonstrate a disciplined and systematic approach to repeatable modelling using forecast criteria, in addition to the usual statistical estimation criteria, to identify value relevance in regressions of the market‐accounting relation. The method was used in Cooke et al. ( 2009 ). It is illustrated here in the case of a single firm over a 59‐year period. Market and accounting data for the U.S. firm Abbott Laboratories Inc. from 1955 are modelled using a testing‐down, error correction approach. Hold‐out samples of 10 to 15 years are used to assess forecasting performance relative to a random walk. Emphasis is placed upon the use of simple, directly observable and theory‐independent model variables that can be replicated with other sample data. In this case, logarithmic transformations of all variables have to be computed in order to achieve correct statistical specification, implying a multiplicative relationship in the raw data. The strongest cointegrating accounting variable with forecasting ability for Abbott's market value is earnings. The model parameters exhibit long‐run stability and the accounting regressor marginally improves forecasts of market value compared to a random walk, demonstrating ‘value relevance’.     

Auditing and crisis management: The 2010 Melbourne Storm salary cap scandal

In this paper, we investigate the way in which auditing was mobilised during the 2010 Melbourne Storm salary cap scandal, through a textual analysis of media coverage associated with the crisis. Using ‘t Hart’s power-symbolic analytical framework, we document the initial public framing of the auditing-based response as well as rhetorical strategies to mask, and counter, public criticisms of audits commissioned by the National Rugby League (NRL) and News Limited in the immediate aftermath of the salary cap breach announcement. We illustrate that these audits formed a key element of the crisis management response of both organisations. We also provide evidence of the way that the NRL sought to use the audit exercise to re-legitimate its ongoing monitoring and enforcement of the salary cap. In spite of various challenges to the scope, due process, timeliness, transparency, independence and resourcing of the audits, the audit programs and their associated narratives endured. The paper contributes to understanding the role of auditing in crisis management and how this role can be implicated in shaping the social construction and contestation of organisational crises.     

Institutional ownership,analyst following,and share prices

We study the mutual relationships between institutional ownership, analyst following and share prices. We show that the pressure on firms to set lower share prices to attract analysts is attenuated by institutional monitoring. Our theory refutes the assumed causal relation between share price and institutional ownership, attributed to the share price–liquidity relation, and we show empirically that share prices and institutional ownership are positively related after controlling for liquidity. Our study provides a rationale for why better firms generally maintain higher share price levels, and offers new insights into the puzzling empirical linkages observed between nominal share price levels and firm fundamentals.     

Government ownership and corporate governance: Evidence from the EU

The ongoing global financial crisis has led to the largest increase in state intervention since the Great Depression. Direct government ownership in publicly-traded corporations has increased dramatically since 2008. How will this increase in public ownership affect the governance of these erstwhile private companies? We examine the impact of government ownership on corporate governance using a sample of firms from the European Union, a region that is relatively familiar with active government participation. Our main finding is that government ownership is associated with lower governance quality. We further show that while government intervention is negatively related to governance quality in civil law countries, it is positively related to governance quality in common law countries. Finally, we find that the preferential voting rights of golden shares are especially damaging to governance quality.