Liberty and the Post‐utilitarian Society

Utilitarian foundations for limited government are shaky insofar as they assume rational and consistent individuals. Recently economists’ assumption of rational actors has come under sustained attack. Behavioural economics has suggested that people are plagued by irrational biases and inconsistencies. These developments have led to a post‐utilitarianism which is held to justify paternalistic interventions by the state via ‘sin taxes’, direct bans or new obligations. Individual responsibility is seriously undermined, as is faith in markets. Supporters of individual freedom need to move away from utilitarian reasoning, reassert core values of autonomy and responsibility, and define strict limits on the scope of government intervention.     

Some Properties of Past Entropy and their Applications

In the context of information theory, measure of uncertainty in past lifetime distribution has been proposed by Di Crescenzo and Longobardi (J Appl Probab 39:434–440, 2002). In this paper, we study some ordering and aging properties in terms of past entropy (based on past lifetime) and develop some characterization results. Some discrete distribution results are also addressed here.     

Recent evidence on the impact of government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds

This study provides recent empirical evidence on the impact of the federal budget deficit on the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds. The study is couched within an open loanable funds model that includes the ex ante real short term real interest rate, the M1 money supply, net international capital inflows, and the unemployment rate. Using quarterly data for the period 1973.1–2007.4, two-stage least squares estimation reveals that the federal budget deficit, expressed as a percent of GDP, exercised a positive and statistically significant impact on the ex ante real interest rate yield on these corporate issues.     

Comparing IV with structural models: What simple IV can and cannot identify

This paper compares the economic questions addressed by instrumental variables estimators with those addressed by structural approaches. We discuss Marschak’s Maxim: estimators should be selected on the basis of their ability to answer well-posed economic problems with minimal assumptions. A key identifying assumption that allows structural methods to be more informative than IV can be tested with data and does not have to be imposed.     

Econometric Causality

This paper presents the econometric approach to causal modelling. It is motivated by policy problems. New causal parameters are defined and identified to address specific policy problems. Economists embrace a scientific approach to causality and model the preferences and choices of agents to infer subjective (agent) evaluations as well as objective outcomes. Anticipated and realized subjective and objective outcomes are distinguished. Models for simultaneous causality are developed. The paper contrasts the Neyman–Rubin model of causality with the econometric approach.     

Interpreting Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts

Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts have been increasingly accepted globally by both risk managers and regulators as a tool to identify and control exposure to financial market risk. However, modern portfolios are characterized by a constantly changing composition of security holdings that reflect portfolio managers’ strategies, expected prices, and net cash flows into the portfolio. As a result of these factors, portfolio returns are time-varying mixtures of distributions which are unlikely to be well approximated by conventional methods.     

On the estimation of returns to scale, technical progress and monopolistic markups

A number of theoretical results on estimating returns to scale, technical progress and monopolistic markups are derived when there are multiple outputs and inputs. The choice of value added versus gross output and problems that arise in aggregation across sectors of an economy are also considered. Using US data on manufacturing, evidence is found of increasing returns to scale across all levels of aggregation. Technical progress is typically found to be insignificant implying that economic growth has been driven by increasing returns to scale rather than technical progress. Such findings have important implications for the macroeconomic modeling of economic fluctuations.