The challenge of the future and the institutionalization of interdisciplinarity: notes on Herman Kahn’s legacy

This article is an attempt to explore Herman Kahn’s foundational contribution to the development of what he called “broad studies”, a combination of futures research and public policy analysis. In Kahn’s view, decision making and policy processes pose two crucial problems that the scholarly research is rarely forced to face: (1) the need to have and operate with a broad, multifaceted vision of phenomena and (2) the issue of coping imaginatively and realistically with future circumstances and conditions that can only vaguely be distinguished in the present. Implied in these two is the need to develop new methods and approaches fitted to the charges imposed by them. The paper discusses Kahn’s work as an integrated solution to these problems: The definition and advocacy of broad and future-oriented studies, his concept on how these studies should be institutionalized in interdisciplinary organizational systems, and the crucial position scenarios and propaedeutic and heuristic methodologies have in this context. A special attention is given to two methodological approaches he developed to cope with these challenges: Scenario Building and the Method of Classes of Variables.When twenty years ago, on July 7, 1983, Herman Kahn died suddenly at age 61, both friends and intellectual adversaries recognized that “the world lost one of its most creative and best minds” [1] and [2]. By that time Herman Kahn was one of the preeminent and best known Futures Studies scholars, a founding father of the field, with extensive and vital contributions in Strategic Studies, an area where he was also considered a founding figure and a leader [3] and [4]. His work was followed all over the world and the directions he traced in the public debate on very sensitive issues of crucial public concern have continued to be unaltered today, twenty years after his unexpected and premature death. Yet in spite of the incessant influence of his arguments and ideas, today his intellectual legacy is still to be accounted for and the breath and depth of his contributions are still to be reviewed and analyzed in a systematic way. This paper is an attempt to explore only one dimensions of this legacy: Kahn’s foundational contribution to the development of what he liked to call “broad studies”, a combination of futures research and public policy analysis.The two decades that have passed since his death allow us today to approach his work undisturbed by the “sound and fury” of the many public debates and controversies he participated in and to focus on some of the deepest and most enduring dimensions of his intellectual contributions. However while doing that, we should keep in mind that for Kahn the public policy process shaping the future and the public debate associated to it were always the focal points and the ultimate ends of his efforts. Indeed, probably the best approach to Kahn’s work is to see it in the light of his continuous concern for the practical relevance of the social research. For him the research process was always action-oriented and its ultimate test was its relevance for policy and social action. As a result, the most promising starting point for any overview of Kahn’s thought and work should be a set of crucial conclusions he reached about the policy making process and decision makers early in his career.     

Globalisation and the environment: the long-term effects of technology on the international division of labour and energy demand

This paper examines the effect of the structural changes arising from the globalisation of production and innovation and from technological changes on the environment. Drawing on theories of international production from international business and innovation, we assess the impact of long-term technological change and changes in international production on the international division of labour and energy demand. We select two industrial sectors with different technological characteristics (the textile, clothing and footwear sector and the chemical sector). We examine the effects of the globalisation of production and of technological change on these two sectors on the level of industrial production and resource intensity in different regions and countries over the last 30 years. We speculate on the impact of globalisation of production and innovation in future pervasive technologies—information technology, biotechnology and nano-technology. The implications of these developments on industrial greenhouse gases emissions are assessed.     

An international study of internal audit function quality

We investigate organisational and environmental factors that influence firms’ incentives to develop high-quality internal audit functions (IAFs) by using a unique international sample formed by matching proprietary data from a global internal auditor survey with public data obtained from Worldscope. Concerning organisational factors, we find that a positive relationship exists between IAF quality and firm complexity and confirm that complex firms have a higher demand for monitoring and advising and, therefore, a greater need for formal controls. In addition, IAF quality is positively related to board monitoring and audit committee diligence but negatively associated with CEO power, which suggests that IAF quality is influenced by other key players in corporate governance. Regarding environmental factors, we document that IAF quality is positively associated with industry competition, which implies that a firm’s incentive for a high-quality IAF is enhanced when confronted with greater environmental uncertainty. Furthermore, IAF quality has a significantly positive relationship with our self-constructed index of IAF requirements included in national corporate governance codes, which indicates that strong home-country corporate governance codes play a role in fostering IAF development.     

Decomposing the market,industry, and firm components of profitability: implications for forecasts of profitability

Academics and practitioners frequently highlight that overall market and industry performance is an important aspect of a firm’s profitability. However, few studies allow for the decomposition of a firm’s profitability into market, industry, and idiosyncratic components, and those that do often assume that the market and industry components are cross-sectional constants. In this study, we allow for variation in firm-specific sensitivities to market, industry, and idiosyncratic economic shocks, and then assess whether and when this decomposition results in improved forecasts of profitability. For the overall sample, we find significant improvements in terms of the magnitude of forecast errors and the frequency with which forecasts based on the decomposed values are superior versus forecasts using only total profitability. Across the sample as a whole, decomposing profitability in the forecasting process results in more accurate forecasts greater than two-thirds of the time (increasing to almost 80% within certain subsamples). Our results provide strong support for the role that firm-specific measures of market and industry profitability play in predicting a firm’s future performance, as well as highlighting settings where the decomposition provides the greatest benefit in terms of predicting future changes in profitability.     

Sharing my way to success: A case study on developing entrepreneurial ventures using social capital in an OSS community

While Open Source Software (OSS) communities provide opportunities for knowledge creation, we have a limited understanding of how entrepreneurs leverage OSS communities for their entrepreneurial ventures. Using social capital theory in a mixed methods case study, we compare entrepreneur and non-entrepreneur behaviors to investigate how entrepreneurs build social capital within an OSS community. This study shows that entrepreneurs differentiate themselves from non-entrepreneurs by focusing on cognitive and relational capital building activities, which in return makes it possible for them to leverage their social capital to influence and shape the environment in which they are operating. Our findings suggest that entrepreneurs strategically select which activities within the community to expend their limited resources on (e.g., developing code over participating in email conversations) and build their social capital more through their actions than through their words (e.g., showing their commitment to the community through code commits, bug fixes, and documentation). Given the liabilities of newness and smallness as well as other challenges faced by entrepreneurs, applying an open innovation strategy in OSS communities could be one approach where entrepreneurs, by developing and freely revealing their intellectual property to the community, share their way to success via OSS-infused entrepreneurial business ventures.     

Rookes v. Barnard and the trade union question in British politics

In the 1950s, given the scope of the Trade Disputes Act 1906 that had granted immunity against specific torts (civil wrongs) to organisers of industrial action, the courts had little role in industrial relations. Hence, the importance of the House of Lords decision in 1964 that, in threatening to strike to secure Douglas Rookes's removal from the Heathrow design office of the British Overseas Aircraft Corporation after his resignation from the union, Alfred Barnard and others had used unlawful means because a threat to break a contract of employment came within the tort of intimidation that was unprotected by the Trade Disputes Act's statutory immunities, and thus, they were liable to pay damages to Rookes. The legal arguments deployed are analysed within growing unease in the Conservative Party and among employers at the emergence of workplace union organisation and national strikes. Despite being partially neutralised by the Trade Disputes Act 1965, Rookes was a harbinger of a new judicial activism that outflanked trade unions' tort immunities by creating novel common law liabilities. This in turn laid the political basis for subsequent Conservative legislation to restrict and regulate trade unions and industrial action, a project that is ongoing.     

A Consumer-Based Approach to Designing Product Line Extensions

A high proportion of new product introductions entail line extensions (e.g., new flavors, sizes, convenience packs, features) rather than totally new products. An attendant problem with line extending involves the possibility of cannibalization of the firm's current products. Paul Green and Abba Krieger describe an approach for designing line extensions that employs consumer tradeoff data and a variety of search heuristics to find "optimal" extensions that explicitly consider the cannibalization of current offerings. The methodology is applied to a case in which an agricultural chemicals firm is introducing a new soybean herbicide.     

The importance of being first : The case of prescription drugs in Canada

There is a growing literature on the importance of being first, which suggests that where there is uncertainty about the product quality of late entrants' brands the pioneering brand will retain a competitive advantage. This is consistent with studies of the U.S. drug industry. Using Canadian data for the drug industry it is shown that eliminating quality differences is a necessary but not sufficient condition for late entrants to gain market share. In addition, price competition has to be stimulated. Under these conditions the late entrants have taken up to 100 percent of the pioneering brands market.