How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?

There is growing evidence that the primary effect of energy price shocks on the U.S. economy involves a reduction in consumer spending. We quantify the direct effect on real consumption of unanticipated changes in discretionary income, shifts in precautionary savings, and changes in the operating cost of energy-using durables. The possibility of asymmetries in the response of real consumption to energy price shocks is also considered. We demonstrate that linear models are consistent with the symmetric behavior of real consumption in 1979 (when energy prices increased sharply) and in 1986 (when they fell sharply). It is shown that historically energy price shocks have been an important factor in explaining U.S. real consumption growth, but by no means the dominant factor.     

Productivity differences and the dynamic effects of labor movements

Barriers to labor mobility across countries coexist with substantial differences in living standards largely attributable to productivity differences. A growth model with endogenous labor movements is used to assess the effects on output, capital accumulation and welfare of removing barriers to labor mobility. The model is parameterized so that it is consistent with evidence on historical labor movements, and is applied to two cases: the enlargement of the European Union and the (hypothetical) creation of a common labor market in the North America. The main finding is that there are large resulting gains in terms of output and welfare.     

Productivity and Trade Orientation in UK Manufacturing*

We show that improvements in aggregate productivity in UK manufacturing during the first years after the implementation of the Euro, by the UK's main trading partners in Europe, are determined by both market share reallocation and within‐company productivity growth. Furthermore, we outline a structural methodology for estimating parameters of a production function linking the unobservable productivity to endogenous company‐level trade orientation, investment and exit decisions. This allows us to back out consistent and unbiased estimates of productivity dynamics by trade orientation of companies within four‐digit UK manufacturing industries using FAME data over the period 1994–2001. Our estimates of productivity dynamics indicate that improvements in aggregate productivity were mainly driven by market share reallocations away from inefficient and towards efficient exporting companies alongside productivity improvements within non‐exporting companies.     

The Coverage Properties of Confidence Regions After Model Selection

It is very common in applied frequentist (classical) statistics to carry out a preliminary statistical (i.e. data-based) model selection by, for example, using preliminary hypothesis tests or minimizing AIC. This is usually followed by the inference of interest, using the same data, based on the assumption that the selected model had been given to us  a priori . This assumption is false and it can lead to an inaccurate and misleading inference. We consider the important case that the inference of interest is a confidence region. We review the literature that shows that the resulting confidence regions typically have very poor coverage properties. We also briefly review the closely related literature that describes the coverage properties of prediction intervals after preliminary statistical model selection. A possible motivation for preliminary statistical model selection is a wish to utilize uncertain prior information in the inference of interest. We review the literature in which the aim is to utilize uncertain prior information directly in the construction of confidence regions, without requiring the intermediate step of a preliminary statistical model selection. We also point out this aim as a future direction for research.     

Managing low‐skill workers: a study of small UK food manufacturing firms

Low‐wage work is of growing significance in the UK. This article tests the model of the low‐skills equilibrium (LSE) through a study of 27 small firms in a sector, food manufacturing, widely identified as being in an LSE. Three hypotheses are tested. (1) There will be a single, fixed equilibrium. We find more variety, reflecting the specific circumstances of firms. (2) An equilibrium is sustained by weak support institutions and a product market dominated by low value‐added goods. The expectation about institutions is supported, but the product market permitted some, albeit weak, opportunities to escape the LSE. (3) Skills will be low, and workplace regimes will be characterised by work intensification. Some firms were developing employee skills. Work intensification was rare, reflecting the absence of Taylorisation and the importance of face‐to‐face relationships. Overall, some firms had the will to escape the LSE, but weak institutional support and a ready supply of labour substantially reduced the incentives to do so.     

‘Everybody's talking at me’: the dynamics of information disclosure and consultation in high‐skill workplaces in the UK

This article examines the dynamics of direct and indirect consultation processes in three high‐skill work establishments in the UK. Drawing on a mix of case study survey and interview data, it analyses the experiences and attitudes of predominantly well‐qualified professional employees. Adopting the concept of ‘embeddedness’ of employee consultation at the workplace level, we find that despite considerable breadth and depth of practice, many employees remain dissatisfied with the extent of their individual and collective influence over management decision‐making processes. Four underlying contributory factors are presented: extant hierarchical and bureaucratic management styles, the negative impact of work overload, the individualisation of consultation through computerisation, and the weakness of cooperative forms of union engagement.     

Cash balance pension plans: A case of standard-setting inadequacy

Accounting for and ownership of U.S. private employee pensions has long been a controversial and politically contested terrain. The uniqueness in the U.S. of using employers as the principal provider of pensions makes the reporting of pensions more problematic since the corporate employers providing pensions are not strictly accountable to only the pensioners. Over the last quarter century there has been a marked swing in power toward management and away from employees making it possible for increasing numbers of U.S. companies to switch from conventional defined benefit plans to cash balance plans. This paper provides a “case” study of how accounting standard-setters framed the pension reporting problem vis-à-vis how they frame the “reporting problem” in general. Utilizing various sources of commentary about the phenomenon of cash-balance conversions, we triangulate on the pension problem to demonstrate how current FASB disclosure rules fail to satisfy the condition of neutrality and how those rules have facilitated the shifting of economic risk from shareholders to employees.