An Analysis of the Convergence of the Composition of Public Expenditures in European Union Countries

The literature on fiscal policies is paying increasing attention to the impact of the composition of public expenditures on long‐term economic growth. Public policy endogenous growth models recommend to change the composition of public expenditures to items considered productive expenditures. In this sense, European institutions are encouraging the rise in the share of productive outlays like public investments, R&D, and active labor market policies, among others. The article analyzes whether these recommendations are followed by European Union countries and whether a convergence to a new pattern of public finances with a higher share of those items considered productive expenditures by European institutions is arising.     

Some lessons from incentive theory: Promoting quality in bus transport

While service quality is an important problem in bus transport services, few transport authorities have considered the solution of modifying their concession contracts. This paper proposes imitating market-oriented solutions from private franchise chains to increase the service quality offered by transport operators, solutions that include the threat of losing rents or quasi-rents to stop franchisee opportunism. The study bases its arguments on the complementarities between different control mechanisms and the similarities between franchise and concession contracts. Similarly, the paper proposes linking the renewal of concession contracts to the administrative reputation of operators (measured by customer feedback on service quality). The study also provides details on the implementation of such an incentive system.     

The HIV Epidemic,Skill Heterogeneity,and Output

This paper investigates the effect of HIV/AIDS on output using an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents calibrated to sub‐Saharan Africa. Output is found to be below a no‐AIDS output in a range between 3% (10%), when only unskilled workers are affected, and 10% (28%), when only skilled workers are affected, whenever the overall infection rate is 7% (20%). When investigating the hypothesis that AIDS affects skilled workers more severely than unskilled at the beginning of the epidemic, with the effect switching as the epidemic becomes more mature, the findings are that the economy can be 8% smaller along the transition path. In all scenarios where the epidemic is temporary, it would take four to five generations or about 90 years for sub‐Saharan Africa to recover.     

Labor supply, child care, and welfare in Spanish households

This paper presents a household model in which both spouses work and care for their children, thereby obtaining a measure of household welfare. Applying this model to the Spanish case allows for drawing some basic conclusions. That is, the highest efficiency in caring for children is obtained when time is offered by the mother. Moreover, the time dedicated to child care by the father is considered as leisure time in a higher proportion than time dedicated by the mother. Also, a direct and strong relationship is detected between monetary income and welfare. Household welfare is greater when the children are older, and welfare increases when the father dedicates less time to work outside the home.The authors would like to thank the anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier version of this paper. The authors are also indebted to the Ministerio Español de Trabajo y Asuntos Sociales for its financial support.     

On estimating the median from survey data using multiple auxiliary information

A new method to derive confidence intervals for medians in a finite population is presented. This method uses multi-auxiliary information through a multivariate regression type estimator of the population distribution function. A simulation study based on four real populations shows its behaviour versus other known methods.     

An stated preference analysis of Spanish freight forwarders modal choice on the south-west Europe Motorway of the Sea

This paper aims to contribute towards the design of effective freight transport policy by means of empirical analysis. In order to do so, a stated preference survey is undertaken to model the modal choice between door-to-door road transport and short sea shipping in the Motorway of the Sea of south-west Europe. The proposed analysis will provide policymakers with the necessary tool to identify the critical areas that should be addressed by future policy action in order to boost short sea shipping on Spain's Mediterranean coast. By applying the proposed method, we will be able to obtain estimates of the subjective values of transport attributes – value of time, value of reliability and value of frequency – in freight transport, values for which barely any empirical evidence on a national scale exists. Quantifying such values is a key part of the cost benefit analyses performed when evaluating transport projects.     

Selección de proveedores basada en análisis dimensional

This article presents the evaluation of a group of six suppliers for an electromechanical component of hydraulic bombs. The comparison is made by using the dimensional analysis technique and the attributes evaluated were the component´s costs, product quality, post sale service from supplier, product reliability, supplier’s administration and organization and production technology in their production system. In addition, in order to integrate the opinion of several persons in the selection and decision process, the information analysis was done with the aid of a decision group integrated by five persons with responsibilities in the purchase area. The technique is easy to apply and has been widely accepted by its users, who are making its use extensive to other components supplier’s selection process.     

Credit risk management at retail in Mexico: An econometric improvement in the selection of variables and changes in their characteristics

The early prediction of bad debtors for revolving credits in Mexico is a relevant issue today. The credit behavior econometric model proposed considers the changes in the characteristics of the consolidated accredited and provides better results than those obtained with the methodology utilized by the CNBV on provision matters. The results obtained show that the possibility of replacing the current model, minimizing the expected loss and increasing the ROA per financial institution at a national level by 2.20%, complies with the methodological criteria and the statistical tests in accordance with the Compiled Banking Regulation and Basel II guidelines on credit risk issues.     

An agent based model concept for assessing modal share in inter-regional freight transport markets

This paper introduces an Agent based modelling approach to model inter-urban freight transport between two or more trading regions. The use of the model is to ascertain the modal share of competing transport modes (road and intermodal) while taking complex transport service supply–demand dynamics into account. It is structured by modules describing company generation, supplier choice, modal competition and International road freight transport market dynamics. The behaviour of individual actors is simulated using normative agent behaviour and market knowledge. Using the micro-simulation approach, shippers and carriers (primarily road hauliers and a maritime based intermodal operator) interact through simulated contracts resulting in the generation of tours. The service performance of the tours is fed back into the model for decision making during contract deliberations. Preliminary application of model to Mediterranean case study show that market share gains of around 25–30% are obtained with policy interventions of financial subsidies to intermodal services and more frequent shipping services in the intermodal transport respectively.