A stable demand for money despite financial crisis: the case of Venezuela

The demand for broad money in Venezuela is investigated over a period of financial crisis and substantial exchange rate fluctuations. The analysis shows that there exist a long-run relationship between real money, real income, inflation, the exchange rate and an interest rate differential, that remains stable over major policy changes and large shocks. The long-run properties emphasize that both inflation and exchange rate depreciations have negative effects on real money demand, whereas a higher interest rate differential has positive effects. The long-run relationship is finally embedded in a dynamic equilibrium correction model with constant parameters. These results have implications for a policy-maker. In particular, they emphasize that with a high degree of currency substitution in Venezuela, monetary aggregates will be very sensitive to changes in the economic environment.     

Cost structure and capacity in the Norwegian pelagic fisheries

The parameters of the short-run cost function are estimated for three vessel types taking part in the Norwegian pelagic fisheries: purse seine vessels, trawlers, and coastal vessels. The generalized translog functional form is used. Estimates of returns to scale are calculated and the results indicate that there are substantial economies of scale in all vessel classes. It is further investigated whether excess capacity varies with vessel size and age. The analysis suggests increased quotas per vessel to avoid rent dissipation. With the total allowable catch given, the number of participating vessels must be reduced.     

The cointegrated vector autoregressive model with general deterministic terms

In the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) literature, deterministic terms have until now been analyzed on a case-by-case, or as-needed basis. We give a comprehensive unified treatment of deterministic terms in the additive model $X_t=\gamma Z_t+Y_t$, where $Z_t$ belongs to a large class of deterministic regressors and $Y_t$ is a zero-mean CVAR. We suggest an extended model that can be estimated by reduced rank regression, and give a condition for when the additive and extended models are asymptotically equivalent, as well as an algorithm for deriving the additive model parameters from the extended model parameters. We derive asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators and discuss tests for rank and tests on the deterministic terms. In particular, we give conditions under which the estimators are asymptotically (mixed) Gaussian, such that associated tests are ${\chi }^2$-distributed.     

Entrepreneurial innovativeness and growth ambitions in thick vs. thin regional innovation systems

Research in economic geography has paid increasing attention to regional innovation systems (RISs) as a potential vehicle for growth and development. Yet despite an increasing amount of research studying RISs in particular and economic regions in general, we have limited knowledge about their influence on entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship. We respond to this knowledge gap and study if entrepreneurs’ localization in thick vs. thin RISs affects their innovativeness and growth ambitions. Thick RISs are predominately urbanized spaces that include organizations of higher-level education, R&D intensive milieus, and an ample industry sector, while thin RISs to a lesser degree encompass these features. Empirically, we analyse 870–917 entrepreneurial firms in Agder of Southern Norway. Based on trade and labour markets, as defined by the EU’s classification of local administrative units (LAU1), we identify two thick and six thin RISs in Agder. Econometric analyses show that entrepreneurs located in thick RISs are more innovative than entrepreneurs located in thin RISs, but there are no significant differences concerning entrepreneurs’ growth ambitions. In light of our findings, we discuss the potential agency role played by entrepreneurial firms at a micro level on path dependent features of RISs at a macro level.     

Do Immigrants Affect Firm‐Specific Wages?*

We propose and test a novel effect of immigration on wages. Existing studies have focused on the wage effects that result from changes in the aggregate labour supply in a competitive labour market. We argue that if labour markets are not fully competitive, immigrants might also affect wage formation at the most disaggregate level – the workplace. Using linked employer?employee data, we find that an increased use of low‐skilled immigrant workers has a significantly negative effect on the wages of native workers at the workplace – also when controlling for potential endogeneity of the immigrant share using both fixed effects and instrumental variables.     

Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap

The output gap is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a series of univariate and multivariate methods for extracting the output gap in Norway, and compares their value added in predicting inflation. We find that models including the output gap have better predictive power than models based on alternative indicators, and they forecast significantly better than simple benchmark models. Furthermore multivariate measures of the output gap perform better than the univariate gaps. Comments from two anonymous referees, Q. Farooq Akram, Tommy Sveen, Ken West, Fredrik Wulfsberg and seminar participants in Norges Bank are gratefully acknowledged. All mistakes remain our own. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of Norges Bank.     

Estimating the natural rates in a simple New Keynesian framework

The time-varying natural rate of interest and output and the implied medium-term inflation target for the US economy are estimated over the period 1983–2005. The estimation is conducted within the New Keynesian framework using Bayesian and Kalman-filter estimation techniques. With the model-consistent estimate of the output gap, we get a small weight on the backward-looking component of the New Keynesian Phillips curve—similar to what is obtained in studies which use labor share of income as a driver for inflation (e.g., Galí, Eur Econ Rev 45(7):1237–1270, 2001; Eur Econ Rev 47(4):759–760, 2003). The turning points of the business cycle are nevertheless broadly consistent with those of CBO/NBER. We find considerable variation in the natural rate of interest while the inflation target has been close to 2% over the last decade.     

Semi-endogenous versus Schumpeterian growth models: testing the knowledge production function using international data

Using various indicators of innovative activity and product variety in the OECD countries over the past century, this paper tests first- and second-generation models of economic growth. The estimation results give evidence in favour of Schumpeterian models, while the semi-endogenous growth theories are shown not to be consistent with the data.      

DELAYED OVERSHOOTING AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE PERSISTENCE IN AN IMPERFECT INFORMATION MODEL

Recent studies have pointed out that monetary shocks in sticky price models cannot generate real exchange rates that exhibit delayed overshooting and are highly persistent. This paper demonstrates that such exchange rate dynamics can be generated by incorporating incomplete information about the true nature of the monetary shock into a standard New Keynesian model of a small open economy.