Europäische Richtlinie über Versicherungsvermittlung und VVG-Reform

The directive on insurance mediation, proposed by the European Commission, is supposed to secure a minimum standard of professional competence for intermediaries to protect customers as well as to ascertain the intermediaries’ freedom of establishment and freedom to provide services in the internal market. Pursuant to the directive, only an intermediary who is registered in his / her home country’s intermediary register will be allowed to mediate insurances. The intermediary has to comply with professional requirements set by the directive in order to be registered. Yet, part-time intermediaries can be exempted from those requirements by the member states. Additionally, the intermediaries are burdened with certain information and documentation duties towards their customers, a breach of which will cause personal liability. Only these contractual duties are to be implemented in the WG (German Insurance Act), which is soon to be basically reformed.     

Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach

Financial risk model evaluation or backtesting is a key partof the internal model's approach to market risk management aslaid out by the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision. However,existing backtesting methods have relatively low power in realisticsmall sample settings. Our contribution is the exploration ofnew tools for backtesting based on the duration of days betweenthe violations of the Value-at-Risk. Our Monte Carlo resultsshow that in realistic situations, the new duration-based testshave considerably better power properties than the previouslysuggested tests.     

UNEMPLOYMENT, HYSTERESIS AND TRANSITION

In this paper, we quantify the degree of persistence in the unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. Initially, we work with the concept of linear ‘Hysteresis’ as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment as in most empirical research on this area. Given that this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and nonlinear dynamics in unemployment. Finally, we examine whether CEECs' unemployment presents features of multiple equilibria, that is, if it remains locked into a new level whenever some structural change or sufficiently large shock occurs. Our findings show that, in general, we can reject the unit‐root hypothesis after controlling for structural changes and business‐cycle effects, but we can observe the presence of a high and low unemployment equilibria. The speed of adjustment is faster for CEECs than the EU, although CEECs tend to move more frequently between equilibria.     

Commodity Taxes, Wage Determination, and Profits

We examine the effects of two different types of commodity taxation, specific and ad valorem, on wages and profits. We analyze two models of wage determination, one with efficiency wage setting and one with union-firm bargaining. In the former, a (locally) revenue-neutral shift from specific to ad valorem taxation leads to an increase in both employment and wages and a reduction in profitability. In the latter, the effect on wages and profits may be reversed: predominantly ad valorem taxation raises employment but lowers wages, and under certain circumstances, the net effect is an increase in profits.     

The value of tax benefits and the cost of liquidating versus selling failed thrift institutions

This paper examines the 205 insolvent thrifts that were resolved in 1988 and assesses the cost savings obtained by selling 179 of the institutions through assisted acquisitions rather than liquidating them. It is hypothesized that the cost savings were determined by factors related both to the future viability of the acquired institution and the particulars of the deal arranged by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board and the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation. The added value by selling a thrift is determined primarily by the level of core deposits obtained by the acquired thrift. However, the branch structure and purchased mortgage-servicing rights should also add franchise value to the firm. In addition to these factors, the analysis accounts for the tax benefits and other regulator forbearances associated with the deals. Other characteristics of the deals are also considered. It is found that core deposits, tax benefits, purchased mortgage-servicing rights, average branch size, and type of acquirer, as well as some other factors, were significant determinants of the cost savings obtained through selling an institution rather than liquidating it.     

Dynamics of the federal funds target rate: a nonstationary discrete choice approach

We apply a discrete choice approach to model the empirical behaviour of the Federal Reserve in changing the federal funds target rate, the benchmark of short‐term market interest rates in the US. Our methods allow the explanatory variables to be nonstationary as well as stationary. This feature is particularly useful in the present application as many economic fundamentals that are monitored by the Fed and are believed to affect decisions to adjust interest rate targets display some nonstationarity over time. The chosen model successfully predicts the majority of the target rate changes during the time period considered (1994–2001) and helps to explain strings of similar intervention decisions by the Fed. Based on the model‐implied optimal interest rate, our findings suggest that there is a lag in the Fed's reaction to economic shocks during this period. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The quality of cooking oil used in informal food processing in Malawi: a preliminary study

A survey was conducted in Lilongwe city urban markets in Malawi, to assess the quality of cooking oil used for frying potato chips. Purposive sampling was performed to come up with respondents who were using vegetable oils. A stratified random sampling was used to select the 32 informal food processors who were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Oil samples were collected from the most commonly used brand of oil. Fifteen respondents were selected and these were divided into three categories of five: those who were not reusing the oil, those who were reusing the oil and those who were preparing potato chips and chicken in the same oil, for chemical analysis. The preliminary results showed that while the majority (59.4%) of the informal food processors discarded the oil after 1 day, 3.1% discarded it after 4 days and another 12.5% after 3 days. A larger proportion of the respondents (40.6%) used the leftover oils at home, 37.5% kept it in oil bottles, 3.1% kept it in plastic papers for reuse the following day. Also, most respondents (57%) indicated dark colour as the sign of oil deterioration, 29% discarded the oil after noticing foam formation while 8.2% and 6.1% said they discarded the oil after noticing a bad smell and food absorbing the oils respectively. A physical observation of the various oils showed that for most of the respondents (34%), the oils were dark brown in colour, in 22%, the oils were slightly dark brown and 16%, the oils were brown. Foam formation was noticed in 13% of the respondents. It was also noted that 91% of the respondents had not been trained or briefed of food quality and safety issues. A chemical analysis of the oils showed high values of free fatty acids (range, 0.84–1.4112 compared with 0.42 in the fresh oil) and peroxide values (range 14.7–16.6 compared with 9.0 in the fresh oil). It may be concluded that the oils being used by the informal food processors in Malawi are of poor quality and so the foods cooked in them may be a health hazard to the consumers and the processors themselves. Although this work in ongoing, it may be recommended at the outset that the health department of the city assemblies should inspect these oils for the good health of the consumers.     

Real Estate Valuation Models: Lender and Equity Investor Criteria

The use of valuation models that focus on lender criteria has been growing in the appraisal field. In the rush to build lender criteria into real estate valuation models, equity investor criteria, expectations, and requirements occasionally have been ignored. The specific criteria considered in this paper are the loan-to-value ratio and the debt coverage ratio for lenders and the equity dividend rate for equity investors. Each of these three criteria may be a binding constraint on value.
Graphical analysis provides a framework within which major real estate valuation models (i.e., Ellwood, McLaughlin, Gettel, Lusht-Zerbst, and Steele) are compared. A new valuation model (i.e., the Cannaday-Colwell model) is developed which utilizes the equity dividend rate.
The three definitional models (i.e., McLaughlin, Gettel, and Steele) are found to be relevant only by mere coincidence. Each of these models simultaneously considers two of the three key criteria, completely eliminating the possibility of consideration of anything else; i.e., the models become tautological.
It is shown that the discounted cash flow based models (i.e., Ellwood, Lusht-Zerbst, and Cannaday-Colwell) each tell one-third of the story. One of these models will be relevant depending upon whether the binding constraint is the maximum loan-to-value ratio, the minimum debt coverage ratio, or the minimum equity dividend rate. The relevant model is the one that yields the lowest value estimate of the three.     

Price uncertainty and the effect of capital costs in a point in-point out inventory investment

This paper analyzes a point in-point out inventory investment under price uncertainty. The optimal quantity is determined by maximizing the expected value of the investor's risk preference function, which is a function of profit. Using an exponential risk preference function, the adjustment in the optimal quantity stemming from a change in the interest rate is investigated. The main conclusion is that the sign of the adjustment depends both on how profit is expressed and on the type of price distribution applied. Contrary to what is assumed in conventional managerial control practices, a rise in the interest rate might lead to an increase in the optimal quantity when present value serves as a measure of profit.