Die ökonomischen Konsequenzen der gesellschaftlichen Alterung

In den n?chsten Dekaden wird die Bev?lkerung nicht nur in Deutschland immer ?lter. Gibt es einen statistischen Zusammenhang zwischen der Altersstruktur einer Gesellschaft und zentralen makro?konomischen Variablen? Welche Konsequenzen hat die gesellschaftliche Alterung für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland bis 2050? Wie stellen sich diese Entwicklungen im internationalen Vergleich dar?     

Conceptualizing sustainable development: An assessment methodology connecting values, knowledge, worldviews and scenarios

Sustainability science poses severe challenges to classical disciplinary science. To bring the perspectives of diverse disciplines together in a meaningful way, we describe a novel methodology for sustainability assessment of a particular social-ecological system, or country. Starting point is that a sustainability assessment should investigate the ability to continue and develop a desirable way of living vis-à-vis later generations and life elsewhere on the planet. Evidently, people hold different values and beliefs about the way societies sustain quality of life for their members. The first step, therefore, is to analyze people's value orientations and the way in which they interpret sustainability problems i.e. their beliefs. The next step is to translate the resulting worldviews into model-based narratives, i.e. scenarios. The qualitative and quantitative outcomes are then investigated in terms of associated risks and opportunities and robustness of policy options.The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) has followed this methodology, using extensive surveys among the Dutch population. In its First Sustainability Outlook (2004), the resulting archetypical worldviews became the basis for four different scenarios for policy analysis, with emphases on the domains of transport, energy and food. The goal of the agency's Sustainability Outlooks is to show that choices are inevitable in policy making for sustainable development, to indicate which positive and negative impacts one can expect of these choices (trade-offs), and to identify options that may be robust under several worldviews. The conceptualization proposed here is both clear and applicable in practical sustainability assessments for policy making.     

The role of expected protein levels in determining the impact of protein premiums and discounts: a note

Fraser (1997) considered the impact of protein premiums and discounts on a grower's income stream and willingness-to-pay for a forward contract where the protein premium and discount system is centred on a grower's existing expected protein level. This article extends these results to consider the impact of a protein premium and discount system which is not centred on a grower's existing expected protein level. The article suggests that the grower's existing expected protein level plays a crucial role in determining the impact of the system.     

Does the Source of Capital Affect Capital Structure?

Prior work on leverage implicitly assumes capital availabilitydepends solely on firm characteristics. However, market frictionsthat make capital structure relevant may also be associatedwith a firm’s source of capital. Examining this intuition,we find firms that have access to the public bond markets, asmeasured by having a debt rating, have significantly more leverage.Although firms with a rating are fundamentally different, thesedifferences do not explain our findings. Even after controllingfor firm characteristics that determine observed capital structure,and instrumenting for the possible endogeneity of having a rating,firms with access have 35% more debt.     

Variance components models for survival data

Extensions of the Cox proportional hazards model for survival data are studied where allowance is made for unobserved heterogeneity and for correlation between the life times of several individuals. The extended models are frailty models inspired by Y ashin et al. (1995). Estimation is carried out using the EM algorithm. Inference is discussed and potential applications are outlined, in particular to statistical research in human genetics using twin data or adoption data, aimed at separating the effects of genetic and environmental factors on mortality.     

From overt provider to invisible presence: discursive shifts in advertising portrayals of the father in Good Housekeeping, 1950–2010

Abstract

This article considers the link between fatherhood and masculinity and identifies some of the key discursive shifts around fatherhood based on an analysis of advertising material that appeared in Good Housekeeping magazine between 1950 and 2010. It provides a socio-historical perspective on fatherhood that reveals a discursive shift from the father as patriarchal family provider/protector to a more ambiguous and less obvious presence in the magazine advertisements. Our findings suggest that family-related advertising in women’s magazines does little to challenge the traditional models of paternal masculinity. Changes in the portrayal of fathers, when examined closely, seem to reinforce traditional gender hegemony. Yet, over time, a ‘multiplicity of possibilities’ of dominant paternal masculinities is emerging, broadening the original ‘breadwinner’ model and perhaps offering some transformative potential around how we view fathers.     

Are Business Students Prepared for the World of Business? Self‐interest,Conformity and Conflict Styles

While conflict management is a central capability in the business world, it gets relatively little attention in most business schools. In a study of undergraduate and graduate students at a Canadian university, we investigate the roles personal values play in the relationship between majoring in business and students' conflict management propensities. We find that business students hold more narrowly self‐interested, as well as more conformist and traditionalist, values than students in other disciplines, with the implication that business students may be more prone to conflict avoidance and less likely than other students to engage with conflict collaboratively. We discuss both self‐selection and socialization as possible explanations, and the implication this has for business education and curriculum development.     

The temporary shutdown decision: Lessons from the Great Recession

The temporary shutdown condition provides guidance on dealing with a serious transitory downturn in demand. The traditional condition says managers should stop production when revenues fall below avoidable costs. This condition is flawed because it ignores how lost human capital and reputational damage harm future profits. As a consequence, firms may optimally operate with losses far larger than stipulated by the traditional condition. We provide the first broad empirical analysis of the temporary shutdown decision, focusing on the Great Recession. We show that large operating losses were common and temporary shutdowns were exceedingly rare, even among very small public firms.