Predicting corporate financial distress: Reflections on choice-based sample bias

Financial distress precedes bankruptcy. Most financial distress models actually rely on bankruptcy data, which is easier to obtain. We obtained a dataset of financially distressed but not yet bankrupt companies supplying a major auto manufacturer. An early warning model successfully discriminated between these distressed companies and a second group of similar but healthy companies. Previous researchers argue the matched-sample design, on which some earlier models were built, causes bias. To test for bias, the dataset was partitioned into smaller samples that approach equal groupings. We statistically confirm the presence of a bias and describe its impact on estimated classification rates.     

Developing leaders rather than managers for the global marketplace

The key to successfully competing in the global marketplace may be staffing key expatriate positions with accomplished /skilled leaders. Past research has focused on preparing managers to successfully expatriate to foreign assignment and repatriate back to the United States. The high failure rate and general lack of effectiveness of many expatriate managers may be attributed to not having a cultural match between the assignment and the leadership style of the expatriate. This article explains the complex issues associated with multicultural leadership and proposes a diagnostic leadership matrix based upon internal and external cultural constraints.     

MSE-improvement of the least squares estimator by dropping variables

It is well known that dropping variables in regression analysis decreases the variance of the least squares (LS) estimator of the remaining parameters. However, after elimination estimates of these parameters are biased, if the full model is correct. In his recent paper, Boscher (1991) showed that the LS-estimator in the special case of a mean shift model (cf. Cook and Weisberg, 1982) which assumes no “outliers” can be considered in the framework of a linear regression model where some variables are deleted. He derived conditions under which this estimator outperforms the LS-estimator of the full model in terms of the mean squared error (MSE)-matrix criterion. We demonstrate that this approach can be extended to the general set-up of dropping variables. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the MSE-matrix superiority of the LS-estimator in the reduced model over that in the full model are derived. We also provide a uniformly most powerful F-statistic for testing the MSE-improvement.     

Profit,productivity, and profit-sharing

This study is an investigation of the effect of profit-sharing on labor productivity. When monitoring labor performance is costly for management, a regular wage/salary contract is insufficient to induce profit-maximizing behavior from the worker. The authors demonstrate that when this profit-maximizing behavior can be induced only through profit-sharing, a linear profit-sharing program will increase productivity and the welfare of both management and labor. The benefit from profit-sharing is increasing up to the point where the utility of additional income is offset by the negative utility of extraordinary effort (working harder or providing higher quality work). The income effect, i.e., the change in negative utility of extraordinary effort given a change in income, can potentially either increase or decrease the point at which the income-effort tradeoff-reaches zero.     

Optimal fiscal zoning when the local government is a discriminating monopolist

Monopoly zoning by local governments has been studied extensively since the original article by White [1975, in: E. Mills and W. Oates, eds., Fiscal zoning and land use controls (Lexington Books, Lexington, MA)]. However, little or no attention has been paid to the possibility of monopolistic discrimination under such a regime. The question is: When will zoning multiple lot sizes be feasible given that buyers with different valuations of land cannot be coerced into purchasing particular lots? The literature on imperfect price discrimination by monopolists is brought to bear on this question. It is shown that the resulting zoning strategy may or may not involve multiple lot sizes. The factors determining the optimal strategy are studied in detail, with particular emphasis on the nature of the market for undeveloped land in the community.     

Abstracts

Quality & Quantity -