The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD

This paper addresses the topic of cyclicality in fiscal policy. In particular, we show that the level of cyclicality varies across spending categories and across OECD countries. In line with leading theories of fiscal cyclicality, we show that countries with volatile output and dispersed political power are the most likely to run procyclical fiscal policies. Wage government consumption is highlighted as the most important channel by which these variables affect fiscal cyclicality.     

The Great Divergence: Why Britain Industrialised First

What drove the precocious industrialisation in Britain was not demand for machines but rather (as Joel Mokyr and his co-authors have argued) the supply of useful knowledge and the skills needed to put it into practice. They were the force behind early innovation. But they did not act alone. They were reinforced by British institutions, which gave the British economy a century's head start over the rest of Europe and likely too over the rich parts of Asia. The institutions included a uniform fiscal and legal system; an effective means of training apprentices, who had escaped from local guild control; and a parliament that could raise taxes and exercise eminent domain but was at the same time a credible protector of private property. Among other things, these institutions facilitated the transportation of goods such as coal and they were backed up by policies that worked in favour of manufacturing. Together, the institutions and policies generated agglomeration effects that encouraged innovation. The agglomeration effects were more pronounced in western Europe than anywhere else in Eurasia and more developed in Britain than anywhere else.     

All Myth and Ceremony? Examining the Causes and Logic of the Mission Shift in Microfinance from Microenterprise Credit to Financial Inclusion

This contribution assesses the shift in the mission of microfinance from providing small loans for entrepreneurship to the broader agenda of financial inclusion. Three leading organisations' publications inform a discourse analysis, which allows the strategic shift to be analysed using two theoretical frames from organisational sociology: instrumental rationalism and sociological institutionalism. The proclaimed shift in strategy is found to consist less of rational innovation towards the aim of poverty alleviation than of “myth and ceremony” for the sake of organisational self-preservation.     

The social costs of gun ownership: a reply to Hayo,Neumeier, and Westphal

We respond to the new article by Hayo, Neumeier, and Westphal (HNW), which is a critique of our 2006 article. The principal contribution of that article wa     

Spurious principal components

The principal component regression (PCR) is often used to forecast macroeconomic variables when there are many predictors. In this letter, we argue that it makes sense to pre-whiten the predictors before including these in a PCR. With simulation experiments, we show that without such pre-whitening, spurious principal components can appear and that these can become spuriously significant in a PCR. With an illustration to annual inflation rates for five African countries, we show that non-spurious principal components can be genuinely relevant in empirical forecasting models.     

Determinants and Valuation Implications of Compulsory Stock Option Disclosures in a Weak Regulatory Setting—The Case of France

Using a sample of listed French firms in 2005, the year of mandatory IFRS adoption in the European Union (EU), we investigate the determinants of disclosure compliance of stock option expenses under IFRS 2, Share‐based Payment. Stock options are a popular means of executive compensation in France relative to other EU countries. Prior to 2005, French accounting standards and corporate governance regulations did not require recognition of option expense amounts and required minimal supplementary disclosures. There was also a perception that enforcement was imperfect, in particular with respect to IFRS 2. Given this setting, we explore what factors influence the willingness of firms to follow compulsory IFRS requirements in a weak regulatory setting. We find that overall compliance with IFRS 2 disclosure requirements increases with U.S. and U.K. institutional ownership, U.S. cross‐listing, provision of English language statements, and decreases with CEO and family ownership of the firm. We also investigate how stock market prices are affected by the recognition and disclosure of stock option expenses according to IFRS 2 in this regulatory setting and find that investors value option expenses positively, particularly when accompanied by high‐disclosure compliance. Our findings have implications for other jurisdictions in the process of adopting or converging to IFRS.     

Tourist Perception of Crowding and Management Approaches at Tourism Sites in Xi'an

Tourism crowding management is an important part of sustainable development at tourist attractions. This study seeks to recognize visitors' perceptions of crowding and then identify tourism crowding management approaches for tourism sites in Xi'an, western China. Three kinds of study, which were designed using quantitative and qualitative techniques, were undertaken in Xi'an. In the first two studies the actual numbers of visitors at component parts of five tourist attractions were recorded. Next, visitor responses to these kinds of levels of crowding were assessed. In the third study senior managers were interviewed and asked to explain their approaches to crowding management. Taken together, the information collected from the three studies helped build a model that plots the driving forces shaping tourism crowding at tourism sites.