Options-based forecasts of futures prices in the presence of limit moves

The reported analysis examines a simultaneous estimation option-based approach to forecast futures prices in the presence of daily price limit moves. The procedure explicitly allows for changing implied volatilities by estimating the implied futures price and the implied volatility simultaneously. Using futures and futures options data for three agricultural commodities, it is found that the simultaneous estimation approach accounts for the abrupt changes in implied volatility associated with limit moves and generates more accurate price forecasts than conventional methods that rely on only one implied variable.     

Analyzing a panel of seasonal time series: Does seasonality in industrial production converge across Europe?

In this paper we consider deterministic seasonal variation in quarterly industrial production for several European countries, and we address the question whether this variation has become more similar across countries over time. Due to economic and institutional factors, one may expect convergence across business cycles. When these have similar characteristics as seasonal cycles, one may perhaps also find convergence in seasonality. To this aim, we propose a method that is based on treating the set of production series as a panel. By testing for the relevant parameter restrictions for moving window samples, we examine the hypothesis of convergence in deterministic seasonality while allowing for seasonal unit roots. Our main empirical finding is that there is no evidence for convergence in seasonality.     

Social Security and personal saving: 1971 and beyond

Feldstein (1996, 1974) reported that Social Security in the U.S.A. reduced personal saving (“saving”) in 1992 (1971) by $416 ($61) billion. I reestimate his life-cycle consumption specification using data from the latest NIPA revision, correct his calculations, and find that the implied reduction in 1992 (1971) saving is now $280 ($22) billion, 48% (16%) of actual net private saving, with a standard error of $114 ($14) billion. If structural breaks around WWII and the 1972 Social Security amendments (which raised real per capita SSW by 22%) are allowed, and the market value of Treasury debt included in the specification, the reduction in 1971 and 1992 saving attributable to Social Security is at most 0.55 times its standard error, and 12% of net private saving. I then reestimate the preferred specification of Coates and Humphreys (1999), allowing for these structural breaks and relaxing other restrictions. The implied effect of Social Security on saving is again statistically zero. First version received: September 2000/Final version received: September 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  I thank Les Oxley for pointing out that correcting for AR(1) residuals is not a categorical imperative but a cultural relative, in which case common factor restrictions are crucial.     

Environmental Macroeconomics: Extending the IS–LM Model to Include an 'Environmental Equilibrium' Curve

A decade has now passed since Daly made a plea for an environmental macroeconomics. Despite an expanding literature on "green" national accounting and the efforts of ecological economists to measure the sustainable net benefits of a growing macroeconomy, it is only recently that Daly's plea has been adequately answered. This has been achieved with the incorporation by Heyes of an "environmental equilibrium" or EE curve into the familiar IS–LM model. However, the IS–LM–EE model proposed by Heyes is incomplete. By extending Heyes' model to include the role of technological progress and the need to institute policy instruments to ensure operation on the EE curve, this paper sends out a clear message that environmental concerns should be incorporated into macroeconomic models. They should not be solely confined to microeconomics.     

British union renewal: does salvation really lie beyond the workplace?

The paper examines a union initiative to recruit among migrant workers through the provision of individual services outside of the workplace. While the initiative is shown to have initially generated new members, questions are raised about the viability of such an approach in the absence of mutually supportive access to workplace representation.