Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results

In foresight activities uncertainty is high and decision makers frequently have to rely on human judgment. Human judgment, however, is subject to numerous cognitive biases. In this paper, we study the effects of the desirability bias in foresight. We analyze data from six Delphi studies and observe that participants systematically estimate the probability of occurrence for desirable (undesirable) future projections higher (lower) than the probability for projections with neutral desirability. We also demonstrate that in the course of a multi-round Delphi process, this bias decreases but is not necessarily eliminated. Arguably, the quality of decisions based on Delphi results may be adversely affected if experts share a pronounced and common desirability for a future projection. Researchers and decision makers have to be aware of the existence and potential consequences of such a desirability bias in Delphi studies when interpreting their results and taking decisions. We propose a post-hoc procedure to identify and quantify the extent to which the desirability bias affects Delphi results. The results of this post-hoc procedure complement traditional Delphi results; they provide researchers and decision makers with information on when and to which extent results of Delphi-based foresight may be biased.     

Family versus Non‐Family Firm Franchisors: Behavioural and Performance Differences

Drawing from resource‐based theory, we argue that family firm franchisors behave and perform differently compared to non‐family firm franchisors. Our theorizing suggests that compared to a non‐family firm franchisor, a family firm franchisor cultivates stronger relationships with franchisees and provides them with more training. Yet, we predict that a family firm franchisor achieves lower performance than a non‐family firm franchisor. We argue, however, that this performance relationship reverses itself when family firm franchisors are older and larger. We test our hypotheses with a longitudinal dataset including a matched‐pair sample of private U.S. family and non‐family firm franchisors.