Term structure modelling of defaultable bonds

In this paper we present a model of the development of the term structure of defaultable interest rates that is based on a multiple-defaults model. Instead of modelling a cash payoff in default we assume that defaulted debt is restructured and continues to be traded.The term structure of defaultable bond prices is represented in terms of defaultable forward rates similar to the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) (Heath et al., 1992) approach, and conditions are given under which the dynamics of these rates are arbitrage-free. These conditions are a drift restriction that is closely related to the HJM drift restriction for risk-free bonds, and the restriction that the defaultable short rate must always be not below the risk-free short rate. In its most general version the model is set in a marked point process framework, to allow for jumps in the defaultable rates at times of default.Financial Assistance by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Sonderforschungsbereich 303, at the University of Bonn and the DAAD is gratefully acknowledged.I thank Pierre Mella-Barral, David Lando and David Webb for helpful conversations, and the participants of the FMG Conference on Defaultable Bonds (March 1997) in London and the QMF 97 conference in Cairns for helpful comments. All errors are of course my own.     

THE DYNAMICS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATES: A RECONSIDERATION

In this paper we offer a bootstrap‐based version of the Cox specification test for non‐nested hypothesis to discriminate between ESTAR and MSAR models. Both models are commonly used for modeling real exchange rates dynamics. We show that the test has good size and power properties in finite samples. In an application, we analyze several major real exchange rates to shed light on the question of which model describes these processes best. This allows us to draw conclusions about the driving forces of real exchange rates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Agglomeration economies with consistent productivity estimates

This paper investigates the relative impact of microeconomic agglomeration mechanisms on plant's total factor productivity (TFP) using German establishment and employment-level data. Contrasting different strategies for estimating TFP from plant-level production functions reveals that unobserved output prices bias true productivity and lead to underestimated agglomeration economies. With the corrected TFP measure, the largest impact is found for labor market pooling, which is captured by the correlation of the occupational composition between one county-industry and the rest of the county. This main result is robust, even when the spatial units are resized from counties to larger labor market regions. Input linkages appear to be relevant only at this larger regional scale. Overall, agglomeration economies differ substantially across industries. Only for a subset of industries, some positive evidence is detected for knowledge spillovers.     

Enlarging the EU: How can the costs be minimised?

Enlargement of the EU will be associated with many costs for all participants— the prospective new members, the old memebers and the EU institutions. A strategy should be pursued that reduces the economic costs as far as possible. This implies a postponement of enlargement until the conditions are more favourable. The author would like to thank Prof. El-Shagi El-Shagi and Dr. Dorothea Witter-Rieder for helful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

Hedge funds and financial stability: Regulating prime brokers will mitigate systemic risks

We review key characteristics of the hedge fund industry, and identify conditions under which this sector can pose a threat to financial stability. Direct regulation of hedge funds that increases transparency does not appear feasible, may create a moral-hazard problem, and may reduce market liquidity. Indirect regulation by prime brokers and market discipline by creditors, counterparties, and investors have been effective in limiting the risks from the hedge fund sector. To reduce systemic risks, more regulation of prime brokers is warranted to avoid competitive dynamics from undermining counterparty risk management practices.     

Rater Bias and Incentive Provision

The tendency of supervisors to judge an employee as either good or bad and then to seek out evidence supporting that earlier established opinion is regarded as one of the major problems of performance appraisal. We investigate the implications of this rater bias in a dynamic moral hazard model with a wealth‐constrained agent. Although rater bias weakens the agent's incentives to exert effort in late periods, at the same time it strengthens implicit incentives in early periods. Under the optimal contract, as long as rater bias is not overly strong, its adverse effect on late‐period incentives is fully offset by exploitation of stronger early‐period incentives and thereby leaves the principal's profits unchanged.     

Exploring Electronic Word-of-Mouth (eWOM) in The Consumer Purchase Decision-Making Process: The Case of Online Holidays – Evidence from United Kingdom (UK) Consumers

This study explores the role of electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) in the consumer decision-making process when purchasing a holiday. Using an ethnographic approach, it explores the role of eWOM on consumers’ attitudes toward online reviews (eReviews) and their subsequent behavior. Across the consumer decision-making processes – information search, evaluation, and purchase – the study develops a conceptual framework with three eWOM dimensions: (1) motivation, (2) source, and (3) content. Findings explore the variations of eWOM’s influence across the decision-making stages with implications for theory and practice. The study further highlights implications for segmentation practices in the tourism industry.     

How should we divide the pie? Equity distribution and its impact on entrepreneurial teams

Drawing on a multiple case study approach and data on eight entrepreneurial teams observed over six months this article develops a dynamic model of the consequences of equity distribution among team members. Perceived justice of equity distribution emerged as a key variable influencing entrepreneurial team interactions and important entrepreneurial outcomes. High perceived justice triggered positive team interaction spirals, whereas low perceived justice triggered negative interaction spirals. Teams exposed to external threats drifted from a positive spiral to a negative spiral despite high perceived justice. We discuss the implications of our study for research on entrepreneurial imprints, justice, and exit.     

Research note sport tourism versus event tourism: Considerations on a necessary distinction and integration

Abstract

Interest in sport-related tourism increased perceptibly around the millennium, however, a comprehensive conceptual framework for a classification of sport (event) tourism is still missing. The predominant focus of sport tourism encompasses event-related touristic endeavors, such as mega sport events; however, an holistic approach to sport tourism suggests the need for further integration of other sub-areas such as nonevent-related components. This research note, therefore, provides a sport tourism perspective and a methodological approach to establishing the sport tourism cube as a necessary tool for the further distinction and integration of sport and event tourism. The research aim is, therefore, to build a foundation for further scientific research in sport tourism.