Fair value accounting,fragile bank balance sheets and crisis: A model

A topic of recent interest in accounting research has been the investigation of the role of fair value accounting (FVA) in the global financial crisis. This research focused on finding a link during the crisis time-period and often states that “accounting is only a messenger”. The model presented in this paper emphasises finding the link before the crisis and “accounting as money.” Use is made of an accounting model of the economy due to the inability of standard models of monetary transmission to incorporate global financial crisis characteristics such as feedback effects, systemic risk and the centrality of the financial sector in the crisis. The model shows FVA in banks to be an accelerator that amplifies the financial cycle upswing. Feedback effects noted in the model include changes in the demand for financial instruments and changes in demand in the real economy. Minsky-like, crisis is shown to be endogenous to the model, working through the fragility of balance sheets in the real sector as well as in the financial sector. Bank balance sheet fragility is caused by bad capital driving out good capital, banks reaching for yield and the inversion of the yield curve. The model shows that the practice of not meeting rising credit demand with increasing credit supply is an essential control mechanism in the financial cycle.     

IDENTIFYING LEISURE TRAVEL MARKET SEGMENTS BASED ON PREFERENCE FOR NOVELTY

The motivation and knowledge of travelers affects their choice of destination and selection of activities while on vacation. Understanding motivation is important for all stakeholders in the tourism industry. The search for novelty is one motivating factor when planning leisure trips and vacation activities. A foreign destination offers a form of novelty to the traveler because it can provide experiences that are not of the everyday variety. The chosen location may have specific geographical features, a different cultural background, special shopping opportunities, a different language, new foods, and unique leisure activities that can provide a novel experience. The purpose of this study is to identify segments of potential U.S. leisure travelers based on their level of novelty seeking and to investigate the relationship between travelers' levels of novelty seeking and their knowledge of a destination and preferred travel style.     

全球劳动力市场大变革北大核心

对于欧洲而言,21世纪的头几十年可能不是一个大衰退时代,但将是一个大变革时代。 从上世纪90年代开始,我们就开始了在全球化和知识经济方面的研究,范围遍及中国、印度、韩国、新加坡、德国和美国等国家。研究结果可以说深刻改变了我们对全球劳动力市场的观点。     

The socio-economic differences between landfill and street waste pickers in the Free State province of South Africa

Waste picking is an important survival strategy of many people throughout the developing world. South Africa has a sizeable waste picker population who ply their trade on municipal landfill sites as well as on the streets of cities and towns. This study lifts the lid on this neglected area of research by analysing and comparing landfill and street waste pickers side by side in a socio-economic context. Samples of waste pickers were drawn from the three main municipalities of Mangaung, Matjhabeng and Metsimaholo in the Free State province of South Africa and a questionnaire-based survey was conducted. Among the findings was that waste picking offers a financial lifeline when, due to inadequate schooling and grinding poverty, individuals would be hard pressed to find employment in the formal economy. The study lays an important foundation for further comparative and qualitative research into this important segment of South Africa’s informal economy.     

Productivity revolutions and science driven growth

This paper presents a simple model of growth over the very long run that distinguishes between scientific knowledge and technology. Making this distinction highlights the importance of the scientific revolution to the emergence of modern sustained economic growth.     

Climate-resilient practices and welfare impacts on rice-cultivating households in Vietnam: Does joint adoption of multiple practices matter?

Farmers have a long history of adjusting their production practices in response to changing production conditions. Using a multinomial endogenous treatment effects model that accounts for observable and unobservable heterogeneity, this study investigates the adoption and welfare impacts of climate-resilient practices on Vietnamese rice-cultivating households. We found evidence of clear and positive welfare impacts from the adoption of canal irrigation (CI) and the joint adoption of agricultural conservation practices (CP) and CI as the main adaptation strategies to increase water stress. More importantly, although farmers with access to CI systems obtained the highest returns, the joint adoption of multiple practices still had substantially high adoption rates and significantly positive effects on rice yield, rice revenue and household income. Our findings indicate that farms' and farmers' characteristics, market information and climatic conditions are generally the main factors driving rice farmers' decisions to adopt climate-resilient technologies, both individually and jointly. Follow-up policy interventions should focus on improving CI systems and promoting the joint adoption of climate-resilient technologies to improve rice farmers' well-being and enhance their resilience capacity to cope with incoming climatic uncertainty.     

Can microcredit reduce vulnerability to poverty? Evidence from rural Vietnam

Extant literature has extensively explored microcredit's impacts, confirming its essential role in poverty alleviation. However, most studies focus on poverty measures that exclusively emphasize current poverty status without adequately addressing the potential of falling into or remaining in poverty. Furthermore, the role of credit services in helping the poor in rural areas appears to be underexamined in the literature. To address this knowledge gap, this study investigates whether rural microcredit can reduce household vulnerability to poverty. A theoretical framework is developed to capture the mechanism by which microcredit borrowing has a vital role in household businesses and impacts the probability of being poor in the future. The Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey data set from 2008 to 2016 is used to explore this issue. The findings indicate that rural Vietnam's access to microcredit significantly reduces vulnerability to poverty. Moreover, better-off households are seemingly the most effective at using microcredit, whereas the opposite is found among worse-off households. These results are found to be robust using the propensity score matching method.     

Sub-Saharan Africa's rising public debt stock: Is there a cause for concern?

The study investigated public debt sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by testing the reaction of the primary balance to positive and negative shocks in public debts in a panel of 45 SSA countries. The study adopts the innovative nonlinear fiscal reaction function and the dynamic panel threshold model to account for the potential asymmetric phenomenon in the public debt series. In line with extant studies, the study found that public debts in SSA are weakly sustainable and there is a highly procyclical fiscal policy bias in SSA countries, particularly in resource-rich countries, indicating that governments' fiscal policy responses are expansionary during economic upturns and contractionary during recessions, which may aggravate recessions and worsen debt situations across SSA. For robustness, the study compares the results with emerging and developed economies. The results indicate that in advanced economies, public debt is sustainable and that fiscal policy response is countercyclical. The research and policy implications are discussed.     

Dynamic mean–variance problem with frictions

Finance and Stochastics - We study a dynamic mean–variance portfolio selection problem with return predictability and trading frictions from price impact. Applying mean-field type control...