Stock market volatility,the news,and monetary policy

The dynamic relationship linking the volatility of equity prices with “the news” and the expected path for monetary policy is investigated. Previous results that link the impact of the news about real activity to changes in current and future interest rates are employed in developing a positive link between changes in volatility and the news. Empirically, our results uncover a positive and statistically significant response of the CBOE volatility index, VIX, to unanticipated changes in employment, but not to inflation. Hence, agents' expectations for the policy response to news have an important influence on the expected volatility of stock prices. (JEL E44, E52)     

试论6σ管理在物流企业的实施

建立和强化以顾客为中心的服务质量意识是入世后国内物流企业参与国际竞争的前提和基础。6σ（西格玛）质量管理在提高物流企业的服务水平、降低企业成本、提升企业核心竞争力等方面具有重要作用。本文分析探讨了6σ管理在物流企业的实施方法与途径。     

The Challenge Facing SMEs in the Eu’s New Member States

The paper considers the main threats and opportunities for SMEs in new member states, arising out of EU membership, including the implications for SMEs at the micro level. Whilst accession-related changes have important potential implications for firms of all sizes, the distinctive size-related characteristics of SMEs affect their ability to identify, cope with and respond to new sources of threat and opportunity. These potential impacts face new member countries at a relatively early stage in the development of market-based systems, which still contain many deficiencies (particularly in institutional terms) and a SME sector with many characteristics that reflect its fledgling status.     

Memory recall errors in retrospective surveys: A reverse record check study

This paper reports on a study to compare self-reports during an interview with staff who attended a University health centre in Turkey, with the records of visits to the same health centre over the previous 12 months. Design of the study reflects the effects of importance of the event, duration since the event, frequency of the occurrence of the event, measurement scale of the event, and bounded and unbounded recalling. In order to assess the extent of recall error, responses to retrospective questions on health centre visits are compared with administrative records. Statistical models are proposed for short and long term human memory recall error effects on responses.     

刍议契约会计与衍生金融工具的确认

契约会计的发展为衍生金融工具在财务报表内进行确认提供了理论依据。会计确认是一个过程,意味着某些项目的确认并不是一次完成。衍生金融工具交易是一个过程,其确认要经过初始确认、后续确认和终止确认。供应链契约所涉及的权利与义务具有“确定性”的特点,对其是否可在签约时确认及对会计确认问题的影响值得进一步探讨。     

The causal relation between government revenue and spending: Evidence from Egypt and Jordan

In investigating the causal relation between government revenue and spending, our empirical results support the tax-and-spend hypothesis for Egypt and the fiscal synchronization hypothesis for Jordan. Breaking away from these historical trends is essential for both countries to eliminate the budget deficit and therefore ensure the availability of domestic saving for private investment. To cope with unemployment and poverty, continuing privatization is recommended for both countries to improve productivity and efficiency in the domestic economy. Privatization should lead to higher domestic saving and investment and at the same time eliminate the budget deficit by enhancing revenue and curbing spending. (JEL H62, H63)     

基于价格指数的房地产实物期权嘈声滤波研究

房地产实物期权价值一般是建立在指数价格基础上的,基础资产具有不可交易性,物业价格与指数价格之间存在独立的嘈声过程。本文利用伊藤引理和滤波原理,对指数价格进行一定的折旧修正和嘈声滤波,使得物业价格动态方程具有可测性。采用欧式期权定价方法,研究房地产物业的实物期权价值。     

仓库信息化建设发展战略探讨

以仓库信息化建设与发展为内容,提出了在仓库信息化建设中,应建立军民一体化战略、纵向一体化战略、横向一体化战略、仓库内部一体化战略,建立与实现高效协调、快速反应的军事物流运作系统。     

供应链管理中的协调机制设计

本文首先指出协调问题是供应链管理中的核心问题,阐述了协调机制的理论背景,基于博弈论和机制设计理论给出了协调机制的形式化描述,在此基础上提出协调机制设计的思路和方法,并指出委托代理理论是协调机制设计中的一个重要理论工具。     

Nash-equilibria in a heterogeneous oligopoly with fuzzy information

We consider a model of an oligopolistic market with heterogeneous firms and products where neither the cost nor the demand functions are common knowledge. Instead, each firm only has some vague ideas about the price strategies adopted by its competitors which is modelled by a fuzzy set. In analogy to the notion of an "equilibrium of actions and beliefs" we define and characterize a generalized Nash-equilibrium and show its existence under general conditions. Furthermore, the impact of the fuzzy information on the equilibrium outcome is analyzed by means of a comparative static analysis within a particular model framework.Received: 28 May 2002, Accepted: 25 December 2002, JEL Classification: D43, D80, L13We wish to thank Bernhard F. Arnold, the editor Murat Sertel , and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Of course, we are responsible for all remaining errors.