Modelling dependence between tourism demand and exchange rate using the copula-based GARCH model

This paper investigates dependence between tourism demand and exchange rate, using the case of China, and from a new perspective by using copula–GARCH models. The empirical results show that the volatility of exchange rate is not a determinant factor in fluctuation of China's inbound tourism demand from the countries being studied. Furthermore, only Russia exhibits risk-adverse behaviour with extreme SUR depreciation, or CNY appreciation associated with an extreme decline in arrivals. Third, introducing the tail dependence and dynamic dependence between growth rates of tourism demand and exchange rate add much to the explanatory ability of the model. The findings of this study have important implications for destination manager and travel agent as it helps to understand the impact of exchange rates on China inbound tourism demand and provide a complementary academic approach on evaluating the role of exchange rates in the international tourism demand model.     

Exploring the effect of geographic convenience on repeat visitation and tourist spending: the moderating role of novelty seeking

This article investigates the relationships among geographic convenience, tourists' visit frequency and travel spending as well as the moderating effect of novelty seeking. A curvilinear relationship between geographic convenience and visit frequency is first identified. The mediating role of visit frequency is then tested through path analysis, followed by an invariant model test that examines the moderating effect of novelty seeking. The findings reveal that frequency of visit fully mediates the relationship between geographic convenience and travel spending. The moderating effect of novelty seeking is also warranted in that the effect of geographic convenience is only significant for low-novelty seekers while the frequency-of-visit effect is more salient for high-novelty seekers.     

Moment conditions for Almost Stochastic Dominance

This study establishes necessary conditions for Almost Stochastic Dominance criteria of various orders. These conditions take the form of restrictions on algebraic combinations of moments of the probability distributions in question. The relevant set of conditions depends on the relevant order of ASD but not on the critical value for the admissible violation area. These conditions can help to reduce the information requirement and computational burden in practical applications. A numerical example and an empirical application to historical stock market data illustrate the moment conditions. The first four moment conditions in particular seem appealing for many applications.     

Trade Integration with the European Union: Poverty Impacts in Ecuador

The government of Ecuador is seeking to negotiate a trade agreement with the European Union (EU). This study examines the impacts of such a trade agreement on rural and urban poverty in Ecuador by combining a household income and occupational choice model with a computable general equilibrium model. The results suggest that a trade agreement with the EU may have a significant impact on poverty. However, the nature and extent of the impact varies depending on the degree of initial tariff reduction, labor market considerations, and whether Ecuadorian bananas are granted better access to the EU market.     

Shopping motives,store attributes and shopping enjoyment among Malaysian youth

Youth shoppers are an emerging age group that is recognized as a meaningful market segment, yet there is lack of extant shopping enjoyment research explicit to the cohort especially in Malaysia context. This study endeavors to measure shoppers' shopping enjoyment and to explore the effect of both internal and external factors in influencing their shopping enjoyment levels. Shopping motives as the internal contributor is personal-specific while store attributes serve as the external aspect is regarded as situational-specific. By employing hierarchical multiple regression analysis, it was found that anticipated utility dimension from shopping motive variable and enhancement dimension from store attribute variable explained the variance in shopping enjoyment. Narrowing to the two variables identified, anticipated utility (β=0.198) from shopping motives was having more influential power than enhancement derived from store attributes (β=0.163) in explaining shopping enjoyment. The findings assist retailers in enhancing the perceived value of customers.     

Threshold estimation for continuous three-phase polynomial regression models with constant mean in the middle regime

This paper considers a continuous three-phase polynomial regression model with two threshold points for dependent data with heteroscedasticity. We assume the model is polynomial of order zero in the middle regime, and is polynomial of higher orders elsewhere. We denote this model by ${ℳ}_2$, which includes models with one or no threshold points, denoted by ${ℳ}_1$ and ${ℳ}_0$, respectively, as special cases. We provide an ordered iterative least squares (OiLS) method when estimating ${ℳ}_2$ and establish the consistency of the OiLS estimators under mild conditions. When the underlying model is ${ℳ}_1$ and is $(d_0-1)$th-order differentiable but not $d_0$th-order differentiable at the threshold point, we further show the $O_p(N^{-1/(d_0+2)})$ convergence rate of the OiLS estimators, which can be faster than the $O_p(N^{-1/(2d_0)})$ convergence rate given in Feder when $d_0\ge 3$. We also apply a model-selection procedure for selecting ${ℳ}_{\kappa }$; $\kappa =0,1,2$. When the underlying model exists, we establish the selection consistency under the aforementioned conditions. Finally, we conduct simulation experiments to demonstrate the finite-sample performance of our asymptotic results.