中国是否应该和美国交换刺激方案？

【美国《时代周刊》3月5日】美国和中国已经证明异性相吸——即使在经济角度来讲也是如此。中国过分节俭，而美国在不久以前还爱超前消费。中国非常乐意向美国输送它过剩的存款（以投资美国国债的形式），因为这可以保持低息，让消费者继续花钱，这样中国出口商就可以继续生产。     

Sino-EU Trade, New Measures for 2009

In the last several years, we have been able to observe how China has shown a spectacular economic development. However, the Chinese economy has not been an exception to the global trend and has also suffered from the consequences of the global financial crisis. This has been especially true with the manufacturing and export sector, in particular shoes, toys…… that have suffered a strong decline that has provoke some factories to close and the loss of jobs. This led us to question if the Chinese economy can remain strong without depending so much on exports.     

How to achieve an ROI on your health care dollars

Offering employees self-care information, which encourages them to decide what to do for themselves with and without provider assistance, can be a low-cost, effective approach to health care cost management. Components of such a program may include a printed self-care guide, workshops, software and a nurse advice line. Self-care is a process, not an event and, to be effective, a self-care program needs to be reinforced by ongoing communication.     

On the Use of Portfolio Risk Models and Capital Requirements in Emerging Markets: The Case of Argentina

A portfolio-based model (CreditRisk+ of Credit Suisse FirstBoston) and recent Central Bank of Argentina credit bureau dataare used to estimate whether current capital and provisioningregulations match actual risks. Arguing that provisions shouldcover expected losses and that capital requirements should coverpotential losses beyond expected losses subject to some statisticallevel of tolerance, the article assesses how well actual capitaland provisioning requirements match the estimated requirementsgiven by the model. Actual provisioning requirements were foundto be close to implied levels of expected losses. The estimateof potential losses was found to be highly sensitive to theassumptions of the model, especially the parameter relatingthe volatility of a loan's rate of default to its mean value.This volatility parameter cannot be estimated accurately withthe credit bureau data because of the short time span covered,so proxy data were used to estimate it, and two values aroundthat estimate were tried. The difficulty of estimating thiscritical parameter implies that the results should only be regardedas suggestive. Moreover, the methodology only seeks to estimatecredit risk and not interest rate risk or exchange rate risk,nor does it fully take into account the indirect effects ofinterest rates and exchange rates on credit risk. As recentevents in Argentina have demonstrated, estimating credit riskalong these lines should be thought of as just one tool in attemptingto assess the appropriate level of bank provisions and capital.     

Detection of Financial Time Series Turning Points: A New CUSUM Approach Applied to IPO Cycles

This paper presents a new Cumulative Sum approach for the detection of turning points in financial time series that are subject to cyclical mean level and volatility regime shifts. The new CUSUM approach is applied to the problem of detecting turning points in hot issue markets for Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), thus providing a multi-dimensional characterization of states of the IPO cycle.     

Internal Versus External Capital Markets in the Insurance Industry: The Role of Reinsurance

This study compares internal and external sources of capital in the insurance industry by analyzing reinsurance activity between affiliated and unaffiliated insurers. Tests are performed using data from a large sample of property-liability insurers that are affiliated with at least one other property-liability insurer. Results indicate that while demands for internal and external reinsurance have some factors in common, there are cost-based differences in internal and external capital, as well as structural differences in the use of internal and external reinsurance. Results are consistent with previous theories related to internal versus external capital markets.     

Hospital ethics committees and the future of health care decision making

In an era of increased patient decision making and limited resources, the solving of ethical dilemmas requires more than the traditional top-down approach. This article examines the use of ethics committees in hospitals located in Alabama. A significant minority of the hospitals do not have committees, despite increasing calls for ethics committees in the literature and by regulatory and accreditation agencies. The article also describes the typical composition of a hospital ethics committee as well as the means by which hospitals without committees solve ethical problems.