A pre-diffusion growth model of intentions and purchase

In this paper, we investigate whether information on the history of purchase intentions is useful in predicting actual purchase behavior. The research is motivated by two factors. The first factor is the empirical finding in the literature that measuring intentions just prior to purchase provides better predictions of actual purchase as compared to when these intentions are measured earlier. The second factor is the role of the timing of the formation of intentions prior to purchase. While one stream of literature based on preference fluency predicts that early formation of intentions is more likely to lead to actual purchase, the other stream based on the memory-based “recency” effect predicts that formation of intentions just prior to purchase is more likely to lead to actual purchase. Together, these two factors motivate the potential need to account for the entire history of intentions prior to purchase. A canonical example of a market where intention histories are tracked is the movie industry, where “first choice” movie watching intentions are tracked up to (and in some cases beyond) the time of release. Accommodating the history of intentions in an econometric model that predicts actual box office performance is challenging due to the differing numbers of observations for the movies, the large numbers of observations for certain movies, as well as the role of various time-invariant and time-varying covariates influencing intentions. We propose a two-part model where the first part involves a hierarchical growth model that summarizes the trajectories of intentions via “growth factors.” These growth factors also reflect the role of the various covariates. The second part is a regression of the box office performance on the growth factors and other covariates. The models are simultaneously estimated within a Bayesian framework. Consistent with the previous literature, we find that including information on intentions improves our ability to predict behavior, with the recent intentions being the most informative. Importantly, when the history of intentions is accounted for, our results indicate that the data support the “recency” literature—intentions grow over time leading up to purchase, and this growth has a positive impact on opening box office performance. While a linear growth model performs best for most movies, there exists a subset of movies for which the quadratic growth model better captures the “spike” in intentions just prior to purchase. Further, accounting for information on the history of intentions dramatically improves model fit and forecasting performance relative to when only the intentions at one point in time (e.g., the ones just prior to purchase) are accounted for.     

Determinacy with nominal assets and outside money

Summary. We build a finite horizon model with inside and outside money, in which interest rates, price levels and commodity allocations are determinate, even though asset markets are incomplete and asset deliveries are purely nominal.Received: 2 July 2003, Revised: 1 December 2004 JEL Classification Numbers: D50, E40, E50, E58.Correspondence to: J. Geanakoplos     

Product innovation for the people's car in an emerging economy

As product offerings of multinational enterprises (MNEs) continue to primarily serve the relatively well-to-do consumers in emerging economies, innovations to meet the unique affordability and acceptability criteria of masses at the base of the pyramid (BoP) continues to remain a daunting challenge. The academic literature is sparse on comprehensive in-depth studies about the intricate processes involved in shaping and managing technology development for the masses. Focusing on product innovation by Tata Motors of India with the Nano—the world's cheapest car, our case study aims to understand how the innovator's choices regarding the use of technology, product design and organizational practices for new product development enabled it to meet the challenge of innovation for India's masses. Drawing on Christensen's work on disruptive innovations, our analysis shows how frugal use of resources through a new combination of existing component technologies created a new modular product to achieve the unique price–performance requirements demanded by the BoP. Our findings show that collaboration with suppliers for component design and their early integration in the design phase substantially lowered costs and helped eliminate unnecessary frills whilst incorporating features valued by mass markets. Our study has important managerial implications for MNEs and provides critical insights into the processes for a new blueprint for an untapped market segment in the automobile industry.     

A Micromodel of New Product Adoption with Heterogeneous and Forward-Looking Consumers: Application to the Digital Camera Category

We develop an empirical model for the adoption process of a new durable product that accounts for consumer heterogeneity as well as consumers forward-looking behavior. Accounting for heterogeneity is important for two reasons. As the mix of consumers with different preferences and price sensitivities could change over time, firms need to update their marketing strategies. Further, it allows for a variety of shapes for the aggregate adoption process over time. As prices for durable and technology products fall over time with firms continually introducing enhanced products, consumers may anticipate these prices and improvements and delay their purchases in the product category. Forward-looking consumers optimize purchase timing by trading off their utilities from buying the product and their expectations on future prices, quality levels, and brand availability. Such forward-looking behavior will result in price dynamics in the marketplace as price changes today influence future purchases. And it results in different shapes of the new product sales pattern over time by influencing the time to take-off. We show how the parameters of our model can be estimated using aggregate data on the sales, prices, and attributes of brands in a product category. We apply our model to market data from the digital camera category. Our data are consistent with the presence of both heterogeneity and forward looking behavior among consumers. At the product category level, we are able to decompose the effects of the entry of Sony into primary demand expansion and switching from other brands. At the brand level, we find that there exist several segments in the market with different preferences for the brands and different price sensitivities leading to differences in adoption timing and brand choice across segments. For a given brand, we show how the changing customer mix over time has implications for that brands pricing strategies. We characterize how price effects vary across brands and over time and how price changes in a given time period influence sales in subsequent periods. Model comparison and validation results are also provided.     

Structural models of complementary choices

This article reviews the rapidly growing literature on structural models of complementary choices. It discusses recent modeling developments and identifies promising areas for future research.     

Online piracy in the context of routine activities and subjective norms

Why do mainstream consumers who would not typically engage in illegal behaviour routinely resort to online piracy of copyrighted software? This paper provides answers to this research query by applying routine activity theory and the theory of reasoned action. The paper’s study analyses consumers’ role as possible offenders that can have the opportunity to engage in online software piracy as part of their routine online activities. Although it is problematic to measure the exact magnitude of the negative impact on the US economy, as stated by the Government Accountability Office it is sizeable. After analysing the conceptual model using a US national consumer sample of over 700 consumers, results show the influence of proximity to motivated offenders, target suitability, and capable guardianship on consumers’ attitudes and perceived subjective norms towards online software piracy, as well as their intentions to engage in this illegal behaviour on the Internet. By integrating routine activity theory, a criminology theory with the theory of reasoned action from psychology and analysing a widespread online software piracy phenomenon, several academic and practical contributions are made.     

Awareness Advertising and International Market Segmentation

In recent years, multinational corporations have increasingly employed advertising in markets where their products are not available. Such ‘awareness advertising’ is only in small part for products that are likely to be introduced in those markets in the near future. A significant and larger part of awareness advertising is for products that are unlikely to be sold in the particular market because of government restrictions on commercial importation and sale. In this paper, we will analyse the motivation behind the use of awareness advertising, the benefits that multinational firms may receive from such advertising and its implications for international market segmentation. The paper concludes with a discussion of areas for fruitful future research on awareness advertising.