TAX-PRICE REFORM WITH DIRECTLY UNPRODUCTIVE PROFIT-SEEKING (DUP) ACTIVITIES*

This paper explores the extent to which insights available from existing writings on directly unproductive profit-seeking (DUP) activities in international trade modify rules of tax and tariff reform in normative public economics and examines in what way these should affect advice on tax policy usually given to developing countries. The analysis proceeds by developing two models. The first incorporates revenue seeking directly into a standard open economy public finance model and examines whether analysis of policy reform and economic costs of distortionary tariffs must be modified. The second includes a political component in the form of lobbying for subsidies – the expenditure side of the budget – as well as a normative economic component that raises taxes – the revenue side – to finance the social costs of such lobbying. The model can be used to determine the effects of politically determined expenditures on tax setting. The analysis shows that the grammar of welfare-theoretic arguments that underlies the reform and design of tax and tariff structures is robust to the inclusion of DUP activities of the type considered here. In particular, the latter lend no presumption in favor of uniformity in tax and tariff structures. It is argued that existing policy advice on tax and tariff reform derived from models where DUP activities have traditionally played no role continues to be appropriate when account is taken of formal treatments of DUP-type phenomena extant in the current literature.     

THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING IN FINANCE: THE PRICE DIFFERENCES OF EQUIVALENT ASSETS1

Threshold autoregressive (TAR) models condition the first moment of a time series on lagged information using a step-function-type nonlinear structure. TAR techniques are expected to be relevant in financial time-series modeling in situations where deviations of prices from equilibrium values depend on discrete transaction costs and where market regulators follow intervention rules based on threshold values of control variables. an important finance application is in modeling the difference in prices of equivalent assets in the presence of transaction costs. the focus of this paper is on motivating the use of TAR models in this context and on the statistical estimation and testing procedures. the procedures are illustrated by modeling the difference between the prices of an index futures contract and the equivalent underlying cash index. It is found that the hypothesis of linearity is conclusively rejected in favor of threshold nonlinearity and that the estimated thresholds are largely consistent with arbitrage-related transaction costs.     

Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?

Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact ofclimate change on African agriculture has been a challenge.Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates howfarm net revenues are affected by climate change compared withcurrent mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for drylandcrops (temperature elasticity of –1.9) and livestock (–5.4),whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5),which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and arebuffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first,warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigatedcrops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming,however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immedia-tely.The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation,because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation.Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, wherewater is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation toclimate change in Africa.     

Macroeconomic policy and output comovement: The formal and informal sectors in India

Is the informal sector different from the formal sector? We present an aggregative analysis of the formal and informal sectors in India to investigate the extent to which the two can be viewed as broadly homogeneous. Using a macroeconometric framework, the paper analyzes over past three decades the behavior of the two sectors with respect to each other and several government-related policy variables. It is found that the formal and informal sectors display markedly different attributes in terms of their relationship to policy variables. Furthermore, the informal sector appears to be decoupled from the rest of the economy.     

Applying Tax Policy Models in Country Economic Work: Bangladesh, China, and India

Three examples from the World Bank's country economic work showhow models can complement general principles in guiding thedesign of a tax reform package. The Bangladesh model highlightsthe sensitivity of judgments about desirable tax bases to assumptionsabout the labor market and substitutability in production. TheChina model quantifies the losses from recommending a singlerate value added tax when prices are controlled and public capitalis freely provided to state enterprises. The India model showswhat fiscal adjustment is consistent with tariff reductionsundertaken to promote an outward-oriented development strategy.Most of the costs of constructing tax policy models are relatedto the need to establish a consistent data set and to calibratethe model in a way that allows its behavior to be consistentwith what good economic analysis would lead one to expect.     

Assessment of CSR based supply chain performance system using an integrated fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS approach

The objective of this research was to identify Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) criteria as well as propose and prioritise the alternatives to improve the supply chain performance system of an organisation. To meet the objective, firstly, CSR-based criteria, sub-criteria and alternatives were identified based on the literature review and discussion with the field experts, taken from automobile industries located at the Delhi region of India. Then, kappa statistics has been applied to check the internal consistency between identified criteria and sub-criteria. After finding the evidence of internal consistency, a hierarchical-type model has been developed and analysed using a multi-criteria decision-making as an integrated fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and a fuzzy technique for order performance by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) approach. To make the results more robust and feasible, a sensitivity analysis has also been performed.     

PRODUCTIVITY OR UNEXPECTED DEMAND SHOCKS: WHAT DETERMINES FIRMS' INVESTMENT AND EXIT DECISIONS?

We investigate the roles played by unexpected demand shocks, besides productivity, on firms' capital investment and exit decisions. We propose a practical approach to recover unexpected firm‐level demand shocks using inventory data. The recognition of demand shocks and inventory also improves the productivity estimation. The empirical results indicate that although productivity and demand shocks are both significant factors determining firm behavior, the former is more dominant for investment decision and the latter is more salient for firm exit. These findings confirm that unexpected demand shocks, besides persistent productivity, are important factors when analyzing capital investment and firm exit decisions.