Sequential estimation of a linear function of normal means under asymmetric loss function

The problem of estimating a linear function of k normal means with unknown variances is considered under an asymmetric loss function such that the associated risk is bounded from above by a known quantity. In the absence of a fixed sample size rule, sequential stopping rules satisfying a general set of assumptions are considered. Two estimators are proposed and second-order asymptotic expansions of their risk functions are derived. It is shown that the usual estimator, namely the linear function of the sample means, is asymptotically inadmissible, being dominated by a shrinkage-type estimator. An example illustrates the use of different multistage sampling schemes and provides asymptotic expansions of the risk functions. Received: August 1999     

Multifactorial Genetic Disorders and Adverse Selection: Epidemiology Meets Economics

The focus of genetics is shifting its contribution to common, complex disorders. New genetic risk factors will be discovered, which if undisclosed may allow adverse selection. However, this should happen only if low-risk individuals would reduce their expected utility by insuring at the average price. We explore this boundary, focusing on critical illness insurance and heart attack risk. Adverse selection is, in many cases, impossible. Otherwise, it appears only for lower risk aversion and smaller insured losses, or if the genetic risk is implausibly high. We find no strong evidence that adverse selection from this source is a threat.     

Sequential estimation of normal mean under asymmetric loss function with a shrinkage stopping rule

The problem of estimating a normal mean with unknown variance is considered under an asymmetric loss function such that the associated risk is bounded from above by a known quantity. In the absence of a fixed sample size rule, a sequential stopping rule and two sequential estimators of the mean are proposed and second-order asymptotic expansions of their risk functions are derived. It is demonstrated that the sample mean becomes asymptotically inadmissible, being dominated by a shrinkage-type estimator. Also a shrinkage factor is incorporated in the stopping rule and similar inadmissibility results are established. Received September 1997     

Epidemiology of inflation expectations and internet search: an analysis for India

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - This paper investigates how inflation expectations of individuals are formed in India. We investigate if the news on inflation plays a role in the...     

Zoning and fiscal interdependencies

Although there are strong theoretical reasons to regard optimal zoning and fiscal policies as simultaneous decisions, most empirical studies have focused on one type of decision or the other. Even fewer attempts have been made to study interdependencies between competing towns in their selection of zoning and fiscal policies. If these interdependencies are prevalent, autonomous local governments may pursue zoning, taxing, and spending policies that are locally rational but socially inefficient. In this study, an optimization model of the local economy is used to illustrate the nature of these interdependencies and to specify an appropriate empirical test. Data from 164 Connecticut townships are used to estimate the empirical model.     

Volatility and growth in developing economies: some numerical results and empirical evidence

This paper analyzes the effect of volatility on growth in a developing economy facing an imperfect world capital market. The analysis comprises: (i) the development of a formal framework for assessing the role of risk on growth; (ii) numerical simulation; and (iii) empirical testing of the model, using data from 61 developing economies. We find that the model plausibly replicates the equilibrium of small stylized economies subject to external and internal sources of risk. We define a benchmark economy and study the effects of various sources of risk and borrowing costs on the equilibrium growth rate, its variability, and welfare. The numerical results obtained are intuitive and supported by empirical evidence.     

The Cass criterion, the net dividend criterion, and optimality

Abel, Mankiw, Summers, and Zeckhauser [Assessing dynamic efficiency: theory and evidence, Rev. Econ. Stud. 56 (1989) 1-20] propose the net dividend criterion as an easy to use sufficient condition for optimality in general stochastic overlapping generations economies with production. We provide examples based on the criterion due to Cass [On capital overaccumulation in the aggregative neoclassical model of economic growth: a complete characterization, J. Econ. Theory 4 (1972) 200-223] and its extensions, the usual tools for such problems, to show that the net dividend criterion need not give the right answer. We identify the flaw in their proof. We also provide an alternative condition which, by an argument unrelated to theirs, is a sufficient condition for optimality when dividends are nonnegative and then argue that the condition is not innocuous since it cannot be verified in actual economies.     

Decomposition of inter-regional poverty gap in India: a spatial approach

This paper examines the impact of various socio-economic factors on consumption in rural West Bengal, an eastern state of India, using a regression-based technique reformulated in a spatial framework. The difference of incidences of poverty (head count ratios) in two parts (North and South) of rural West Bengal is then decomposed using the familiar Oaxaca decomposition methodology into an aggregate characteristics effect, which is interpreted as a resource effect and an aggregate coefficients effect, which is interpreted as an efficiency effect. An important observation from the present analysis is that the poorer North Bengal has a scarcity in terms of availability of characteristics (resources) compared to that in South Bengal and the resource scarcity in North Bengal is the dominant factor causing the poverty gap between the two parts of West Bengal. Thus, attention needs to be paid to North Bengal with respect to enhancement of important policy variables like education level, Government aid, and employment opportunities.