Eine zweifache Verallgemeinerung der Pólya-Verteilung und ihre verschiedenen Deutungen

Zusammenfassung Die erste Verallgemeinerung der Pólya-Verteilung durch Ziehungen aus einer Urne, die Kugeln ins verschiedenen Farben enthält, wird aufr Ziehungsgruppen verallgemeinert und entspricht damit einer Überschreitungswahrscheinlichkeit beir+1 Serien von Stichproben und einer Wartezeitverteilung (Gruppe vons–1 Warteperioden) bei einer geeignet gefüllten Urne mit Kugeln inr Farben sowie der Transponierungswahrscheinlichkeit bei einem Kugelziehungsproblem und weiteren Deutungen; die interessierenden Varianzen und Kovarianzen werden angegeben und mit denen einer verallgemeinerten hypergeometrischen Verteilung verglichen.

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Summary The first generalization ofPólya's distribution by taking balls from an urn with balls ins colours is generalized tor series of takings and thus corresponds to a generalized distribution of exceendances, a certain waiting-problem, to a law of succession and certain other interpretations. Variances and covariances are calculated and compared with those of a generalized hypergeometric distribution.

     

Charakterisierung der zweiseitigen Exponentialverteilung

LetF () be a family of distribution functions with a translation parameter such thatF (0) has a densityf. It is well known that each sample median is a maximum likelihood estimate of , iff belongs to the classE of all bilateral exponential densities which are symmetric about 0. Here it is shown that, conversely,fE holds, either if there is an evenm such that for every sample of sizem each median is an MLE of , or if there is an infinite setM such that for every sample of any sizemM at least one median is an MLE of .     

Optimal variance- and efficiency-balanced designs for one- and two-way elimination of heterogeneity

Summary In this paper, a series ofE-optimal non-binary variance balanced (block or row-column) designs and a series ofE-optimal non-binary efficiency balanced (block or row-column) designs are provided in certain broad classes of competing designs. Furthermore, their high efficiencies by the usualA- andD-optimality criteria are shown.     

Environmental policy in the two-country-case

Summary The paper analyzes the problem how environmental policy affects sector structure, the allocation of resources, relative price (and comparative advantage) and national income in a two-country case with varying terms of trade. The frame of reference is a two-sector model in which production generates pollutants as a joint product. If a country exports the pollution-intensively produced commodity environmental policy will improve its terms of trade under suitable conditions with respect to demand. Whereas in the political debate the negative effect of environmental policy on the international competiveness of a country is stressed, the terms-of-trade effect gives more leeway to environmental policy. The effects on output, export, imports and the other variables of the system are discussed.Help for calculating the results is acknowledged to J. Eichberger. I acknowledge helpful comments from an anonymous referee. I am also grateful to the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft for financial support.     

Power,luck and the right index

Summary We have pointed out the theoretical drawbacks of the traditional indices for measuring a priori voting power inasmuch as they are implied in considering the coalition value a private good. This criticism caused us to view the coalition outcome as a public good. From this aspect and additional considerations with respect to power, luck, and decisiveness, we obtained a story describing the characteristics of an adequate measure of a priori voting power. These characteristics were found to be fulfilled by an index presented by Holler (1978). Through the above analysis this index has received its theoretical justification. An independent view of this index was then provided by means of an axiomatic characterization. This characterization makes possible abstract comparison of the index with previously established private good indices.While we have restricted our attention to simple games, the index presented can be generalized to provide a value on games in characteristic function form. We leave this topic for future conideration.     

The Demand for New Motor Vehicles

—– Using Australian Consumer Sentiment Measures to Explain and Predict Consumer Behaviour     

A system of demand equations for Austria

This paper presents results of parameter estimations of a small system of demand equations for Austria. The functional form of the equations follows the log-linear specification well known as the “Rotterdam”-System. Using annual data from 1954 to 1977 we estimate the absolute price version for a rather aggregated system consisting of four sectors of consumption expenditures. Aitken estimation with and without linear restrictions is the adopted estimation method. Tests for the validity of the general linear restrictions axe performed employing the usual criteria. Relations among the test statistics are discussed. Taking into accountBeaton's [1972] argument of the appropriate use of likelihood ratio tests we present results also after iterating on the restricted error-covariance matrix. The question of negative semidefiniteness of the matrix of price coefficients is examined by inspection of its characteristic roots and the calculation of their approximated asymptotic covariance matrix. Finally, our results are confronted with such of other comparable studies.