论国际金融市场一体化与发展中国家金融风险防范

一、国际金融市场一体化的形成及影响 (一)国际金融市场一体化的形成 20世纪50年代末60年代初以来,随着国际经济的发展、金融技术的进步,尤其是80年代以来世界各国金融自由化(利率自由化、汇率自由化、银行业务自由化、金融市场自由化、资本流动自由化等)措施也直接推动了国际金融市场一体化的进程。各国国内和国外金融市场之间的日益紧密的联系、协调,它们相互影响、相互促进,逐步走向一个统一的金融市场的状态和趋势。     

Valuing Initial Public Offerings Using Article 11 Pro Forma Financial Information in the Prospectus*

We investigate whether Article 11 pro forma financial information assists investors in valuing IPOs. While the SEC expects it to be helpful in assisting investment decisions, Article 11 pro forma financial information is based on registrants' understanding and assumptions, and registrants can exercise their own judgment when preparing pro forma financial statements. It is therefore an empirical question whether the information contained in pro forma financial statements is useful to investors. We examine the association between pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity and the IPO offer value and find asymmetric results. While positive pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity are positively associated with the IPO offer value, negative pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity are negatively associated with the IPO offer value, suggesting that negative pro forma adjustments are priced as growth opportunities. Additional analyses reveal that the association between pro forma adjustments of book value of equity and the IPO offer value varies across different time periods and industries and that pro forma adjustments of book value of equity are initially mispriced by investors. In contrast, we do not find similar results for pro forma adjustments of earnings. Further empirical tests show that the asymmetric results of mispricing of pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity may be explained by the requirements of Article 11 of Regulation S‐X for pro forma adjustments dictating that adjustments to earnings reflect only recurring items while adjustments to book value reflect both recurring and nonrecurring items.     

对贵州“三荒”资源开发几个重点问题的思考

通过分析全省“三荒”开发现状,提出“三荒”开发方式向“效益型”转变,投资向“社会多元型”转变,开发重点向“产业化经营型”转变,开发对象向“资源综合利用型”转变,在宏观决策上不宜再作新的大规模开发等5个观念。     

道光后期州县征漕收支及其与陋规加派的关系——以浙江乌程县为中心的考察

道光时期是重要的社会转型期,学术界从不同视角予以广泛的关注。目前学术界的研究较少涉及州县征漕费用的数额、构成和比例。道光年间尤其道光后期,州县征漕收支数目庞大,弄清数目的实际状况有助于加深对地方弊政的理解。吴煦档案中的乌程县漕用各费的账册资料,记录了该县办漕的收支状况。乌程县征漕费用总计约3万两,由漕务开支、衙门规费、运军兑费三部分构成。清中后期州县的法定漕费远不敷用,州县财政对漕务陋规形成依赖;上级官员、运丁和地方绅衿分润州县漕规收入,形成惯例;州县官则率由旧章,对已有的利益格局通常不做改变。征漕费用和陋规加派具有稳定性和延续性,当需要因事加征时,往往援例加征。征漕陋规虽名义上归州县官所有,但各类开支从规费中支出,所以征漕规费并非州县官的纯收入。州县官借征漕而获利之数,因时、因地、因人而不同。地方财政依赖陋规加派,而陋规又被各利益集团分润,这是清政府腐败集团化的呈现,也是清中后期朝廷囿于“不加赋”之名,惰于进行制度改革的恶果。     

Does Outward Foreign Direct Investment Facilitate China's Export Upgrading?

This paper empirically investigates the impact of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on its export sophistication. Using a provincial‐level panel dataset and applying fixed effects and instrumental variable regression techniques, the study finds that, on average, OFDI has no significant impact on China's export sophistication. However, after the full sample is divided into different regions, the study finds that OFDI has a positive and significant impact on export sophistication in the developed coastal region, but no such impact is observed in the less developed inland regions. Further investigation using a panel threshold model reveals that only when GDP, per capita GDP, human capital, and the research and development intensity of a home economy reach a certain level can OFDI promote export sophistication. The findings suggest that accelerating eco nomic development and increasing absorptive capacity can facilitate the contribution of OFDI to China's export sophistication.     

How the Internet Promotes China's Exports: A Firm‐level Perspective

The development of information and communications technology (ICT), particularly the Internet, has reduced trade costs. However, it remains unclear whether these reduced costs are reflected in the “extensive margins” of firms’ exports (which refer to the probability of firms exporting) or the “intensive margins” (which refer to the value of firms’ export). To test this, we used the concepts of information cost and binary margins, an augmented trade model of firm heterogeneity, a two‐stage Heckman estimation, and data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey of Chinese firms in 2012. The results revealed that reduced trade costs from the use of ICT were positively related to extensive margins but that the connection with intensive margins was not significant. The results lead to the conclusion that reduced information costs related to a firm's exporting behavior were primarily reflected in variable trade costs. This study offers theoretical and empirical evidence for China's policies towards the Internet, which are relevant for the export of manufactured goods. The government should encourage the use of ICT to enhance firms’ export opportunities while facing current trade policy uncertainty.     

上海合作组织命运共同体:一项研究议题

构建上海合作组织命运共同体是中国政府提出的关于促进上海合作组织长远发展的重大倡议。由于上海合作组织命运共同体理念的提出时日尚短,学术界关于该理念的研究尚未全面启动。要使上海合作组织命运共同体理念成为一个有效的研究议题,不仅需要明晰上海合作组织命运共同体的具体内涵,而且需要将其纳入国际共同体、国际组织和大国外交等议题的研究,提炼出一些具有普遍性的理论命题。就攸关上海合作组织命运共同体构建的重大问题而言,至少需要回答上海合作组织命运共同体提出的理论与实践意义、上海合作组织命运共同体构建应遵循的基本路径、上海合作组织命运共同体构建的基础和条件、上海合作组织命运共同体构建面临的挑战与障碍、学术界能为上海合作组织命运共同体构建提供的对策建议等重大问题。在此过程中,学术界还需将其与周边命运共同体、人类命运共同体等家族相似性的概念纳入同一研究视域,以澄清上海合作组织命运共同体的内涵与外延,辨识上海合作组织命运共同体演变的动力与机制,并从理论层面提炼上海合作组织发展经验的特殊性与普遍性。     

A Multi-Agent View of Strategic Planning Using Group Support Systems and Artificial Intelligence

The strategic planning process is dynamic and complex. Including a Group Support System (GSS) in the problem-solving process can improve the content quality of the strategic plan by allowing increased participation by more members of the organization. However, it can also add to the complexity of the problem by increasing the quantity of textual information that can result from group activity. Added complexity increases cognitive overload and frustrations of those participants negotiating the contents of the strategic plan. This article takes a multi-agent view of the strategic planning process. It considers group participants as multiple agents concerned with the content quality of the strategic plan. The facilitator agent is responsible for guiding groups in the strategic plan construction process as well as for solving process problems such as cognitive overload. We introduce an AI Concept Categorizer agent, a software tool that supports the facilitator in addressing the process problem of cognitive overload associated with convergent group activities by synthesizing group textual output into conceptual clusters. The implementation of this tool reduces frustrations which groups encounter in the process of classifying textual output and provides more time for discussion of the concepts themselves. Because of the large amount of convergent activity necessary for strategic planning, the addition of the AI Concept Categorizer to the strategic planning process should increase the quality of the strategic plan and the buy-in of the participants in the strategic planning process.     

When Shopbots Meet Emails: Implications for Price Competition on the Internet

Quantitative Marketing and Economics - The Internet has dramatically reduced search costs for customers by using such technologies as shopbots. Email based targeting is relatively inexpensive; the...     

QUADRATIC TERM STRUCTURE MODELS FOR RISK-FREE AND DEFAULTABLE RATES

In this paper, quadratic term structure models (QTSMs) are analyzed and characterized in a general Markovian setting. The primary motivation for this work is to find a useful extension of the traditional QTSM, which is based on an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) state process, while maintaining the analytical tractability of the model. To accomplish this, the class of quadratic processes, consisting of those Markov state processes that yield QTSM, is introduced. The main result states that OU processes are the only conservative quadratic processes. In general, however, a quadratic potential can be added to allow QTSMs to model default risk. It is further shown that the exponent functions that are inherent in the definition of the quadratic property can be determined by a system of Riccati equations with a unique admissible parameter set. The implications of these results for modeling the term structure of risk-free and defaultable rates are discussed.