Mood and Judgment of Subjective Probabilities: Evidence from the U.S. Index Option Market

Numerous psychological studies show that weather conditions affect people'smood and that mood states are correlated with people's subjective evaluationof future probabilities. In this paper, a new approach is developed and assetmarket data are employed to test the mood-subjective probability relation. Cloudcover and precipitation volume serve as two mood proxies. Our statistical analysissuggests that bad mood states are characterized by investors placing higher probabilitieson adverse events.     

管理层收购(MBO)与我国国企改革

管理层收购(Management Buy-outs,MBO)广泛流行于欧美国家,为企业提供了一种新的发展模式。近几年来,管理层收购(MBO)在中国也有了较快的发展。本文的宗旨在于对管理层收购自身的优缺点及其在我国的发展现状进行客观评价,进而推动国有企业改革走上健康发展之路。     

Optimal Security Design and Dynamic Capital Structure in a Continuous-Time Agency Model

We derive the optimal dynamic contract in a continuous‐time principal‐agent setting, and implement it with a capital structure (credit line, long‐term debt, and equity) over which the agent controls the payout policy. While the project's volatility and liquidation cost have little impact on the firm's total debt capacity, they increase the use of credit versus debt. Leverage is nonstationary, and declines with past profitability. The firm may hold a compensating cash balance while borrowing (at a higher rate) through the credit line. Surprisingly, the usual conflicts between debt and equity (asset substitution, strategic default) need not arise.     

Trading Costs in Early Securities Markets: The Case of the Berlin Stock Exchange 1880-1910

Based on daily prices (amtliche Kurse) we estimate effective spreads of securities traded at the Berlin Stock Exchange in 1880, 1890, 1900 and 1910. Several extensions of the Roll measure are applied. We find surprisingly tight effective spreads for the historical data, comparable with similar measures of the MDAX and DAX at the end of the 20th century.     

Deposit Insurance, Moral Hazard and Market Monitoring

The paper analyses the relationship between deposit insurance, debt-holder monitoring, and risk taking. In a stylised banking model we show that deposit insurance may reduce moral hazard, if deposit insurance credibly leaves out non-deposit creditors. Testing the model using EU bank level data yields evidence consistent with the model, suggesting that explicit deposit insurance may serve as a commitment device to limit the safety net and permit monitoring by uninsured subordinated debt holders. We further find that credible limits to the safety net reduce risk taking of smaller banks with low charter values and sizeable subordinated debt shares only. However, we also find that the introduction of explicit deposit insurance tends to increase the share of insured deposits in banks' liabilities.     

企业数字化转型能否提高创新绩效？来自上市公司的经验证据

随着信息技术的快速发展,企业数字化转型已成为推动创新与竞争力提升的关键。该研究基于2007-2022 年中国上市公司的大规模数据样本,采用最小二乘法线性回归和中介效应模型等统计方法,探讨了企业数字化与创新绩效之间的关系,以期揭示数字化背景下企业如何通过技术应用与管理创新提升创新能力,为企业数字化转型实践提供理论指导和决策参考。研究发现,数字化转型显著提升了企业的运营创新绩效和市场创新绩效,其中不仅直接影响显著,还通过管理赋能、投资赋能、营运赋能和劳动赋能等多重内在机制间接促进了创新绩效的提升。该研究发现不仅为理论研究提供了新的视角,同时也为实践中企业数字化战略的制定提供了有力的策略建议。     

热点之下的冷思考：数字化转型测度的困境与发展

当前,数字经济的浪潮席卷而来,深刻改变着每一个行业,没有哪个部门或组织能够免受数字化变革的影响。数字化转型已经成为大多数企业未来生存和发展的必然选择。在学术界,数字化转型的重大现实意义引发了众多学者的关注,已经逐渐成为管理学领域中备受瞩目的热点话题。数字化转型相关理论的发展必然需要定量实证研究的支持。然而,数字化转型这一概念自身的部分特性使得常用的测度方法大多在其研究中会表现出一些不足与缺陷,无法对数字化转型这一概念进行有效的测度。数字化转型测度方法的发展已经陷入了困境,这严重制约了数字化转型领域定量研究的发展。鉴于此,为了推动数字化转型相关研究的发展,本文将数字化转型的测度作为的核心主题,梳理研究中常用的数字化转型测度方法,探讨当前数字化转型测度面临的困境,分析困境产生的内在原因,进而针对如何突破数字化转型测度的困境提出相应的改进建议。     

企业创新链与资金链生态融合及水平测度研究——以生物医药企业为例

为促进创新链与资金链形成生态循环,推动企业高质量发展,从生态视角出发,运用系统分析方法,对企业创新链与资金链生态融合内涵进行界定,并分析其生态融合特征,构建两链生态融合系统模型,设计两链生态融合水平测度指标体系。基于规则的方法、熵权和物元可拓方法,设计指标数据评分规则与标准,构建两链生态融合水平测度模型,选47 家A 股上市生物制品企业为样本,测度两链生态融合水平。结果表明：生物医药企业创新链与资金链生态融合水平差异较大,存在薄弱环节,从两链融合系统环境、评价机制和平台建设提出建议,为反映两链生态融合程度和进行动态调整,以缓解企业创新融资约束和提高创新链资金配置效率提供理论方法和实际借鉴。