Disentangling the Dividend Information in Splits: A Decomposition Using Conditional Event-Study Methods

While folklore in finance holds that split valuation effectsare due to dividend increases associated with splits, littleis known about magnitudes of dividend and nondividend componentsof split announcement effects. We find that splits and dividendsare indeed informational substitutes, a notion we characterizemore precisely, but a significant portion of split valuationeffects, 46% according to our estimates, cannot be attributedto dividend information in splits. Our techniques extend theliterature on conditional event-study methods and we illustratetheir practical value in testing hypotheses and analyzing datanot amenable to analysis by standard procedures.     

Water and Economic Growth

Several hydrological studies forecast a global problem of water scarcity. This raises the question as to whether increasing water scarcity may impose constraints on the growth of countries. The influence of water utilisation on economic growth is depicted through a growth model that includes this congestible nonexcludable good as a productive input for private producers. Growth is negatively affected by the government's appropriation of output to supply water but positively influenced by the contribution of increased water use to capital productivity, leading to an inverted-U relationship between economic growth and the rate of water utilisation. Cross-country estimations confirm this relationship and suggest that for most economies current rates of fresh water utilisation are not yet constraining growth. However, for a handful of countries, moderate or extreme water scarcity may adversely affect economic growth. Nevertheless, even for water-scarce countries, there appears to be little evidence that there are severe diminishing returns to allocating more output to provide water, thus resulting in falling income per capita. These results suggest caution over the claims of some hydrological-based studies of a widespread global 'water crisis'.     

Economic Growth and Productivity Gains from Capital Inflow: A Rejoinder

Journal of Quantitative Economics -     

ASSET POVERTY IN THE UNITED STATES, 1984–99: EVIDENCE FROM THE PANEL STUDY OF INCOME DYNAMICS

Using PSID data for the years 1984–99, we estimate the level and severity of asset poverty. We find that despite a sharp decline in the official poverty rate, the asset poverty rate barely budged over this period. Moreover, the severity of asset poverty increased during this period. The likelihood of being asset-poor decreased for those who are college graduates or married with children, whereas it increased for those who are white, for the unmarried elderly, and for those without a college degree. Lifetime events such as changes in job market, marital and homeownership status are correlated with transitions into and out of asset poverty.     

Option-Implied Risk Aversion Estimates

Using a utility function to adjust the risk‐neutral PDF embedded in cross sections of options, we obtain measures of the risk aversion implied in option prices. Using FTSE 100 and S&P 500 options, and both power and exponential‐utility functions, we estimate the representative agent's relative risk aversion (RRA) at different horizons. The estimated coefficients of RRA are all reasonable. The RRA estimates are remarkably consistent across utility functions and across markets for given horizons. The degree of RRA declines broadly with the forecast horizon and is lower during periods of high market volatility.     

Separating microstructure noise from volatility

There are two variance components embedded in the returns constructed using high frequency asset prices: the time-varying variance of the unobservable efficient returns that would prevail in a frictionless economy and the variance of the equally unobservable microstructure noise. Using sample moments of high frequency return data recorded at different frequencies, we provide a simple and robust technique to identify both variance components.     

Are the Best Small Companies the Best Investments?

Previous research finds that large companies previously judged to be excellent growth companies have subsequently been poor investments. We examine small companies selected by Business Week on the basis of multiple criteria used in annual articles featuring highly rated growth companies. We study the investment performance over the three years before eleven annual Business Week publications and the three years after publication. We find positive excess returns in the pre‐publication period, but negative excess returns in the post‐publication period. This reversal in investment performance appears to be due to a mean‐reversion tendency in operating performance, in which the earnings and the past rates of return on capital of such companies subsequently decrease significantly.     

The economic performance of the Russian economy in 2006 and a forecast for 2008–2010

This article examines the economic outcome of 2006 and builds a forecast for 2007–2010. The medium-term development risks of the Russian economy are analyzed.