An elasticity approach to the analysis of Romanian foreign trade policy during the years of transition

This paper focuses on the effect of exchange rate variations on the economic evolution of a country in transition, facing inflation, output decrease and negative external shocks; the particular case of Romania is considered. The theoretical part is linked to the Fleming-Mundell model for an open economy, but additional assumptions of price mobility and capital immobility are introduced. The usual interest rate versus output graphic framework is switched from one to another, which plots the exchange rate (or real exchange rate) versus output; the author considers that such a representation fits the behavior of an economy in transition towards a market-based system better. A main role, according to this interpretation, is played by the exchange rate elasticities of imports and exports, which influence the images of the equilibria on the goods market and the balance of payment (the IS and BOP curves' slopes). Finally, an empirical analysis is made, as an example, on the Romanian energy imports data series; the attempts to calculate the exchange rate elasticity may be considered as reliable only in the short term. In order to estimate the global exchange rate elasticities of imports and exports, some aggregations of partial sectorial results might be a possible solution. In the Romanian case, the resulting elasticities seem to be lower than for other countries; this poses the question as to the effectiveness of exchange rate policies in managing the Romanian economy.     

Using client performance measures to identify pre-engagement factors associated with qualified audit reports in Greece

The purpose of this paper is to test the extent to which client (corporate) performance measures can be used to enhance the ability to discriminate between the choice of a qualified or unqualified (clean) audit report. Audit firms face the risk of losing the client if they issue a qualification. On the other hand, failing to qualify exposes the auditor to potential lawsuits and loss of reputation. We examined the financial statements, auditors' opinions, and financial statements notes for companies in Greece that received a qualified audit report and for those that received an unqualified audit report. We modeled the auditor's qualification using a multicriteria decision aid classification method (UTADIS—UTilités Additives Discriminates) and compared it with other multivariate statistical techniques such as discriminant and logit analysis. The qualification decision is explained by financial ratios and by nonfinancial information such as the client litigation. The developed models are accurate in classifying the total sample correctly with rates of almost 80%.     

Property Derivatives for Managing European Real-Estate Risk

Although property markets represent a large proportion of total wealth in developed countries, the real-estate derivatives markets are still lagging behind in volume of trading and liquidity. Over the last few years there has been increased activity in developing derivative instruments that can be utilised by asset managers. In this paper, we discuss the problems encountered when using property derivatives for managing European real-estate risk. We also consider a special class of structured interest rate swaps that have embedded real-estate risk and propose a more efficient way to tailor these swaps .     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

A comparison of nearest neighbours,discriminant and logit models for auditing decisions

This study investigates the efficiency of k-nearest neighbours (k-NN) in developing models for estimating auditors' opinions, as opposed to models developed with discriminant and logit analyses. The sample consists of 5276 financial statements, out of which 980 received a qualified audit opinion, obtained from 1455 private and public UK companies operating in the manufacturing and trade sectors. We develop two industry-specific models and a general one using data from the period 1998–2001, which are then tested over the period 2002–2003. In each case, two versions of the models are developed. The first includes only financial variables. The second includes both financial and non-financial variables. The results indicate that the inclusion of credit rating in the models results in a considerable increase both in terms of goodness of fit and classification accuracies. The comparison of the methods reveals that the k-NN models can be more efficient, in terms of average classification accuracy, than the discriminant and logit models. Finally, the results are mixed concerning the development of industry-specific models, as opposed to general models. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Migrant wages,remittances and recipient labour supply in a moral hazard model

This paper analyzes the interaction between migrants’ income and remittances and between remittances and the labour supply of residents. The model is cast as a two-period game with imperfect information about the residents’ real economic situation. Residents subject to a good economic situation may behave as if they were in a poor economic situation only in order to manipulate remitters’ expectations. The latter, being aware of this risk, reduce the remitted amount accordingly. Therefore, in the equilibrium, residents who really are victims of the bad economic outlook are penalized as compared to the perfect information set-up. In some circumstances, they can signal their type by drastically cutting working hours, thus further enhancing their precarity right when their economic situation is the worst.     

The selection of migrants and returnees in Romania

This paper uses census and survey data to identify the wage earning ability and the selection of recent Romanian migrants and returnees on observable characteristics. We construct measures of selection across skill groups and estimate the average and the skill‐specific premium for migration and return for three typical destinations of Romanian migrants after 1990. Once we account for migration costs, we find evidence that the selection and sorting of migrants are driven by different returns to skills in countries of destination. Our identification strategy for the effects of work experience abroad permits a cautious causal interpretation of the premium to return migration. This premium increases with migrants' skills and drives the positive selection of returnees relative to non‐migrants. Based on the compatibility of the results with rationality in the migration decisions, we simulate a rational‐agent model of education, migration and return. Our results suggest that for a source country like Romania relatively high rates of temporary migration might have positive long‐run effects on average skills and wages.     

The Financial Impact of ISO 14001 Certification: Top-Line, Bottom-Line, or Both?

It is not easy being green, but it does beg the question: Does being green pay off on the bottom-line? Unfortunately, that question of becoming ISO 14001 to reap financial benefit remains widely unanswered. In particular, corporate practice is interested in how environmental management impacts firms’ finance through top-line impact, bottom-line impact, or both—as this paves the way for an investment of environmental management. As current findings are mixed, our study tracks financial performance of publicly traded US firms between 1996 and 2005 to test whether ISO 14001 leads to improved financial performance. Employing a rigorous event-study approach, we compare certified firms to different control groups based on several matching criteria that include industry, size, and/or ROA. In the short run, ISO 14001 certification makes only a minor impact on the bottom-line, according to our results. However, these same results show a significant financial improvement over the long haul with ISO 14001 certification. Additionally, this long-term improvement also makes a significant improvement in top-line performance. Thus, we conclude that environmental management pays off along both dimensions.