RESOURCE BOOMS, INEQUALITY, AND POVERTY: THE CASE OF GAS IN BOLIVIA

This paper addresses the question of whether the Bolivian gas boom of the 1990s has bypassed large parts of the poor population, thereby leading to increasing inequalities in an already unequal society. Using a Computable General Equilibrium model that is sequentially linked to a microsimulation model, we examine the transmission channels through which the large resource inflows related to the gas boom, both initial foreign investment in the sector and the subsequent export earnings, as well as large public transfer programs affect the distribution of income. Our focus is on labor market impacts, in particular on shifts between formal and informal employment and changes in relative factor prices. Our simulation results suggest that the gas boom induces a combination of unequalizing and equalizing forces, which tend to offset each other. As net distributional change is limited, growth generated by the boom reduces poverty despite increasing informality.     

Does the Diversification Potential of Securitized Real Estate Vary Over Time and Should Investors Care?

This paper examines the dynamics of the covariance matrix of return rates for securitized real estate, other company stocks, and government bonds for a cross-section of eight countries. In-sample analysis establishes that in all countries the covariance matrix is time-varying and reacts stronger to bad than to good news. Using a realistic out-of-sample exercise, we find that portfolios selected with a forecasted dynamic covariance matrix are less risky than portfolios constructed with the static matrix. However, benefits of using the dynamic covariance matrix for active portfolio management are mostly offset by rebalancing cost. Passive buy-and-hold investors benefit, because the forecasted dynamic covariance matrix provides better risk assessment.     

Attitudes and Preferences of Kosovar Consumer Segments Toward Quality Attributes of Milk and Dairy Products

ABSTRACT

The dairy market is one of the fastest growing agri-food sectors in Kosovo, yet the farm structure is fragmented. The level of productivity is lower compared with European Union levels and shows potential for improvements. The consumption of dairy products is expected to rise due to income growth and segmentation of consumers that would reflect different preferences for low-fat or zero-fat products, products with natural additives, and so on. On the market level, a significant share of the consumed milk and dairy products is imported. This study aims to better understand attitudes and preferences of Kosovar consumer segments toward milk and dairy products. A quantitative survey with 300 consumers was conducted in major Kosovo cities. Applying a reduced version of the Food Related Lifestyle instrument identified three distinct consumer segments: the conservative consumer segment, the socially oriented foodie, and the information-seeking eco-consumer. The latter two segments are especially open to trying new food products and actively search information about food. All three consumer segments show strong consumer patriotism by believing that domestic milk and cheese are safer than imported products and are of higher quality. This indicates the strong market potential for dairy farmers and companies in the Kosovo, which should develop new food products having these segments in mind. The authors explore the strategies that farmers and companies should use to better target these consumer groups and gain greater access to desirable segments.     

Economic impact of contrast-induced acute kidney injury associated with invasive cardiology: role of iso-osmolar contrast media in Germany,Italy, Poland,and Spain

Objective:

Iso-osmolar Iodixanol is associated with a lower rate of contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) in patients at increased risk compared to low-osmolar contrast media (LOCM). The aim of this study was to assess the financial consequences of CI-AKI risk reduction in patients undergoing coronary angiography (CA) with or without percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in German, Italian, Polish and Spanish hospitals.

Methods:

This budget impact analysis (BIA) compared a scenario with iodixanol to a scenario without, where only LOCM were used, in patients at increased risk of CI-AKI over a 3-year horizon. A meta-analysis based on a systematic review observed a lower rate of CI-AKI with iodixanol compared to LOCM (Risk Reduction?=?0.46) in patients with underlying impaired renal function (serum creatinine ≥1.6?mg/dl and estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤50?ml/min/1.73 m²). Contrast media and CI-AKI hospitalization costs were included in the analysis and unit costs were obtained from published literature, official sources or, when available, from hospital data. In the absence of country-specific data, resource utilization for a CI-AKI hospitalization was obtained by interviews with local clinicians in each country. The percentage of patients who received iodixanol was assumed to increase over time.

Results:

Based on a percentage of patients at increased risk of CI-AKI equal to 20% in Germany, 24% in Italy, 23% in Poland and 10% in Spain, results showed that the introduction of iodixanol would bring a 3-years cumulative net percentage saving on the total hospital budget of 29%, 34%, 25%, and 33% in the four countries respectively.

Conclusion:

The results of the analysis for the four countries showed that iodixanol use in patients at increased risk of CI-AKI undergoing CA with or without PCI may bring considerable savings on the hospital’s budget, due to the associated reduction in CI-AKI incidence.     

Development as leapfrogging,not convergence,not catch-up: towards schumpeterian theories of finance and development

Our aim is to demark a pathway towards Schumpeterian theories of finance and development. To do this, we offer four basic propositions for discussion. First, we suggest that ‘convergence’ and ‘catch-up’ are, from a Schumpeterian perspective, theoretically inadequate concepts as they frame development narratives similarly to the Rostovian idea of a linear path towards some sort of ‘equilibrium imposed on history’. Leapfrogging by means of innovation and finance is put forward as a better approach to analyzing development trajectories. Second, we contend that rather than the often-assumed convergence among nations, history shows that ‘divergence’ is a more common result of development trajectories; this is especially visible in the last half a century. Third, we outline the key features of this Schumpeterian framework, centered on the concept of leapfrogging through innovation and finance. We conclude by highlighting the essential roles of finance and financial governance within this alternative framework for understanding successful development trajectories, and posit that this construct may be labeled a Schumpeterian entrepreneurial state.     

Government activity and economic growth – one size fits All?

This study investigates the role of government activity in economic growth, arguing that economic systems are important and that, therefore, one size of government does not fit all countries. Taking a panel of 111 countries over the years from 1971 to 2010, we consider clusters of economic systems as predicted by an extended Varieties of Capitalism (VoC) approach. The empirical growth impact of government activity is positive but u-shaped and depends on both the quality of institutions and the institutional setting. For the polar cases of liberal economies and Scandinavian coordinated market economies, the potential growth impact is quite similar and superior to other clusters of countries. However, the maximum growth effect is realized for above-average levels of government activity in the Scandinavian countries, while this would be detrimental to growth in liberal countries. Hence, high levels of government activity are consistent with growth but only in economic systems consistently rooted in a high level of government activity.     

Factor Substitution, Income Distribution and Growth in a Generalized Neoclassical Model

Abstract. We analyze a generalized neoclassical growth model that combines a normalized CES production function and possible asymmetries of savings out of factor incomes. This generalized model helps to shed new light on a recent debate concerning the impact of factor substitution and income distribution on economic growth. We show that this impact relies on both an efficiency and a distribution effect, where the latter is caused by the distributional consequences of an increase in the elasticity of substitution. While the efficiency effect is always positive, the sign of the distribution effect depends on the particular savings hypothesis. If the savings rate out of capital income is substantial so that a certain threshold value is surpassed, the efficiency effect dominates and higher factor substitution accelerates the accumulation of capital and works as a major engine of growth.     

Will they buy it? The potential for marketing organic vegetables in the food vending sector to strengthen vegetable safety: A choice experiment study in three West African cities

Considering the hazardous use of synthetic pesticides in vegetable production in urban West Africa, this research investigated the marketing potential of organic vegetables in the food vending sector of Cotonou (Benin), Accra (Ghana) and Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso). Certified organic production and marketing was examined as a potential strategy to improve chemical food safety. A stratified random sampling strategy was applied to study the preferences of food vendors (n = 180) and consumers (n = 360); vegetable use, risk perception, choice preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for organic certification were specifically analyzed. The results showed that awareness of chemical contamination risks was generally low. Appearance of a product was central to vendor choice; consumers attributed similar utility to taste and organic certification. Consumer WTP was calculated to be a premium of 1.04 USD (per plate) if the food served contained only certified organic vegetables. In restaurants, this would mean an average premium of 19% for a meal. If certified organic vegetable production is to make a positive impact on food safety in urban West Africa, we suggest concentrating marketing efforts on the educated “elite” who frequent restaurants. However, considering that restaurant owners exhibited a lower preference for organic certification than lower class food vendors, the marketing situation is difficult. We therefore conclude that demand from the food vending sector alone will not institutionalize domestic certification mechanisms; this underlines the need for public commitment to facilitating such change.