Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession

We examine the quantitative forecasts of Wall Street Journal economists made during the Great Recession. The recession was not predicted in advance, and the severity of the decline was not recognized immediately. An important problem was that the real-time data did not reflect the actual state of the economy and contributed to the forecast errors. At times there was substantial disagreement among the forecasters. A time-series forecast disagreement might provide valuable information about impending recessions.     

Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy WASPAS Method: Application in Reservoir Flood Control Management Policy

Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs) are very flexible tool to cope with the uncertainty arises in multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems. In recent times, MCDM problems with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy information have achieved more attention from researchers in different areas and consequently, several MCDM methods have been extended for IVIFSs. In this paper, a novel approach based on WASPAS method is developed under IVIFSs. The developed method is based on the operators of IVIFSs, some amendments in the classical WASPAS method and a new process for calculation of criteria and decision experts’ weights. In process for calculating weights, new procedures is propoesd to compute the decision experts’ weights and criteria weights based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy information measures (entropy, divergence and similarity measures) to achieve more realistic weights. Innovative information measures are developed based on the exponential function for IVIFSs to determine the weights of the criteria and decision experts. Since the uncertainty is an unavoidable feature of MCDM problems, the developed method can be a constructive tool for decision-making in an uncertain environment. Further, an uncertain decision making problem of reservoir flood control management policy is implemented with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy information, which reveals the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed IVIF-WASPAS method. To validate the result, comparative analysis with existing methods and sensitivity analysis are presented under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment.     

The Global Market for Agricultural Machinery and Equipment

Growth in the current-dollar sales of agricultural machinery and equipment was almost six percent per annum during 2000-2005.1 This was much faster than the 2.6 percent growth for agricultural output and the 1.2 percent rate for population in the same period. JEL Classification L64     

Determinants of Store Brand Share

Private labels or store brands have witnessed considerable growth in the last few decades, especially in grocery products. However, market shares of store brand vary considerably across categories, markets, and countries. A natural question of interest to academics and practitioners is what factors influence store brand market shares. Drawing on a utility framework, we develop 21 consumer, manufacturer, retailer, and product-market characteristics that can influence store brand share. We test the empirical generalizability of the effect of these determinants through a meta-analysis of data from 54 individual and aggregate market studies. Twenty of the 21 determinants show significant, empirically generalizable effects. We discuss the key findings, their implications, and directions for future empirical research.     

What is a multinational corporation? Classifying the degree of firm-level multinationality

The degree of firm-level multinationality is a key dimension that spans all theoretical frameworks, levels of empirical analysis and domains of investigation in international business research. There is, however, no agreed approach to defining or measuring firm-level multinationality. This is reflected in inconsistent approaches to sample selection and empirical testing, and it has curtailed the advancement of the discipline. We propose that instead of searching for the elusive, all-encompassing definition of an MNC, international business scholars should instead agree on a classification system for the degree of firm-level multinationality. We illustrate the advantages of this approach by constructing a simple classification system that takes into account the firm's breadth and depth of multinational engagements. We illustrate our matrix of firm multinationality by classifying a novel sample of over 1000 firms from seven countries, and we demonstrate how it can guide theory development and empirical testing. We also provide examples of potential future research directions.     

The Effect of Bank Debt Downgrades on Stock Prices of Other Banks

We find that debt downgrades of money center banks elicit negative stock price responses in nondowngraded money center banks. Stock prices of larger regional banks also react to these downgrades. Although downgrades of regional banks evoke negative stock price responses for regional banks in the same geographic region, the importance of geographic region as a factor determining the extent of intra‐industry reactions has diminished since 1989. Our results indicate that the merger and expansion activities triggered by interstate banking have blurred differences between regional and money center banks as interstate banking activity has moved towards nationwide banking     

Industrial distributors: Can they survive in the new economy?

As e-commerce evolves and gains power in the business-to-business (B2B) marketplace, what lies ahead for the industrial distributor? The fundamental issue from the distributor's point of view is how to compete more effectively and profitably, given the changing business environment of the new economy. This paper reviews the literature on the distributor's role and relationships and introduces a conceptual model of distributor viability. The model identifies sources of value that distributors offer to manufacturers and customers, including customer relationship management (CRM), production and operations management (POM), and knowledge management (KM). The paper explores the managerial implications of distributor relationships and sources of value. This provides the foundation for better understanding of the viability of industrial distributors in the new economy.