Implementation of the SutteARIMA method to predict short-term cases of stock market and COVID-19 pandemic in USA

Quality & Quantity - The objective of this study is to compare the different methods which are effective in predicting data of the short-term effect of COVID-19 confirmed cases and DJI closed...     

Generalized contest success functions

The key element of models of contest is the contest success function (CSF) which specifies the winning probabilities of agents. The existing axiomatizations of CSFs assume that contestants can make only one type of investment. This paper generalizes these axiomatizations to the case where each agent can have multiple types of investments. This allows us to provide a unified framework to extend and interpret the results of Skaperdas (Econ Theory 7:283–290, 1996) and Clark and Riis (Econ Theory 11:201–204, 1998), and rationalize some seemingly ad hoc CSFs used by applied researchers. This paper has benefitted from the comments of Aicke Hinrichs, Rene Levinsky, and two anonymous referees. We are especially thankful to one of the referees for detailed comments which have helped improve every aspect of this paper.     

Reciprocity in evolving social networks

We study the viability of conditional cooperation in a dynamically evolving social network. The network possesses the small world property, with high clustering coefficient but low characteristic path length. The interaction among linked individuals takes the form of a multiperson prisoners’ dilemma, and actions can be conditioned on the past behavior of one’s neighbors. Individuals adjust their strategies based on performance within their neighborhood, and both strategies and the network itself are subject to random perturbation. We find that the long-run frequency of cooperation is higher under the following conditions: (i) the interaction radius is neither too small nor too large, (ii) clustering is high and characteristic path length low, (iii) the mutation rate of strategies is small, and (iv) the rate of adjustment in strategies is neither too fast nor too slow.

Y2K spending by entrepreneurial firms

While public debate leading up to year 2000 focused on the potential negative consequences of Y2K, some writers recognized that Y2K could set in motion a period of intense strategic investment in information technology (IT) of the type characterized by Schumpeter [Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy, third ed., Harper and Row, New York, 1950, p. 81] as creative destruction. In performing the study presented here, we formulated hypotheses, based on Schumpeter's [The Theory of Economic Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, 1934, p. 57] theory of economic development, about the characteristics of firms that would have responded most aggressively to Y2K and tested these hypotheses using data obtained from Y2K disclosures made in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Our findings provide striking evidence that Y2K spending increased with economic factors that are characteristic of entrepreneurial firms and with the competitiveness of the firms' industries. This observation of systematic Y2K spending patterns suggests that accounting disclosures of IT spending are informative and illustrates the potential power of economic catalysts for change, particularly with respect to IT resources.     

Texas Roundtable on: The Future of Graduate Business School Education

A small group of academics and practitioners discuss the challenges now facing today's business schools. First and foremost is the challenge now being mounted by “online” courses to the traditional methods of classroom lecture and discussion, supplemented in some cases by apprenticeships and other kinds of “experiential” learning. How will traditional universities burdened with high and rising fixed costs for buildings and faculty compete with very low‐cost competitors—programs that reportedly have enabled star lecturers to reach audiences that, in some cases, have exceeded 100,000 students? In assessing the seriousness of the challenge, the panelists start by attempting to articulate what is valuable in current business school education—valuable enough to enable the best business schools to command as much as $175,000 for two‐year (or shorter) programs that confer MBAs. Much of the discussion focuses on establishing the relative importance of the disciplines, or body of knowledge, that are taught in business schools, as compared to the development of “collaborative” habits and interpersonal skills aimed at enabling students to make more effective use of their knowledge within large organizations. Some of the panelists, notably Jeff Sandefer, founder of the (now ten‐year old) Acton School of Business, argue that far too much of today's business school curriculum is devoted to the classroom and conventional learning. And many of the changes in the top business schools during the past decade appear to reflect Sandefer's charges. But, to the extent there is a consensus among the other panelists, it is that the best business schools will continue to try to accomplish both of these goals, though with varying degrees of effectiveness, while most schools attempt to maintain their specialized capabilities, and carve out distinctive niches based on them. For some schools, such specialization is likely to mean continued emphasis on theory and classroom learning—though almost certainly with more attention to practical application and collaborative decision‐making. For other schools, the main focus will continue to be the development of general management and leadership skills.     

The judgmental effects of strategy maps in balanced scorecard performance evaluations

We examine whether supplemental information displays affect decisions made using a common strategic performance measurement system, the balanced scorecard. A distinguishing feature of the balanced scorecard (BSC) is the number and diversity of its metrics. To effectively formulate a decision from such a complex information set, managers must view these measures within their strategic context ( [Kaplan and Norton, 1993] and [Kaplan and Norton, 1996] ). However, academic studies indicate that problems in communication and comprehension of the strategic logic underlying the scorecard hinder its implementation and use ( [Lipe and Salterio, 2000] , [Malina and Selto, 2001] , [Ittner et al., 2003a] and [Ittner et al., 2003b] ). We investigate whether a supplemental information display, in the form of a strategy map, results in performance evaluation judgments consistent with the recognition of relations between performance metrics and strategy. Strategy maps are causal diagrams depicting temporally-separate and non-linear relations between scorecard performance measures and overriding strategic objectives. As predicted, we find that performance evaluation decisions are more consistent with the achievement of strategic objectives when participants are provided with strategy maps.