Overreaction to Fearsome Risks

When risks threaten, cognitive mechanisms bias people toward action or inaction. Fearsome risks are highly available. The availability bias tells us that this leads people to overestimate their frequency. Therefore, they also overreact to curtail the likelihood or consequences of such risks. More generally, fear can paralyze efforts to think clearly about risks. We draw on a range of environmental risks to show the following: (1) Fear leads us to neglect probability of occurrence; (2) As fearsome environmental risks are usually imposed by others (as externalities), indignation stirs excess reaction; (3) We often misperceive or miscalculate such risks. Two experiments demonstrate probability neglect when fearsome risks arise: (a) willingness-to-pay to eliminate the cancer risk from arsenic in water (described in vivid terms) did not vary despite a 10-fold variation in risk; (b) the willingness-to-accept price for a painful but non dangerous electric shock did not vary between a 1 and 100% chance. Possible explanations relate to the role of the amygdala in impairing cognitive brain function. Government and the law, both made by mortals and both responding to public pressures, similarly neglect probabilities for fearsome risks. Examples relating to shark attacks, Love Canal, alar and terrorism are discussed.     

A Systematic Decomposition of World Trade into Horizontal and Vertical IIT

We provide a systematic decomposition of world trade using harmonized bilateral flows at the most available detail (some 5,000 product categories), into three trade types: inter-industry, intra-industry in horizontally and in vertically differentiated products. The analysis is diachronic and considers country pairs such as France-Germany, United States-China, Malaysia-Singapore, or India-Nigeria. We show that the increase in IIT at the world level is due to two-way trade of vertically differentiated products. We find France and Germany having the highest share of IIT in their bilateral trade among all country pairs in the world. In value terms, the most important bilateral IIT is between the United States and Canada. Recently, specialization according to the classical theories of international trade (inter-industry trade), has recovered, due to the increasing participation of emerging economies in world trade. JEL no. F14, F15     

The Poverty of Politics: How Income Redistribution Hurts the Poor

In spite of the significant research literature identifying a tradeoff between income redistribution and economic growth, massive public programs have been implemented to help the poor by transferring income to them. Since Lyndon Johnson's war on poverty began in 1964, over 3.5 trillion dollars have been transferred. However, the possibility that everyone, including the poor, may in fact be made worse off by the transfer has largely been ignored. With a simple algebraic model, the authors demonstrate that, over time, both high and low-income groups are harmed by redistribution. In addition, social mobility, as well as political concerns with relative poverty and international income redistribution increases the damage to all income groups produced by redistribution.     

Additional Empirical Evidence on Real Convergence: A Fractionally Integrated Approach

We examine the real convergence hypothesis for 14 OECD countries looking at the fractional order of integration of the differences of real GDP per capita in these countries with respect to the United States. Using parametric procedures, the results vary depending on how we specify the I(0) disturbances. If they are white noise, convergence is achieved for Canada and Australia, and with autocorrelated disturbances, this hypothesis is satisfied for France and the Netherlands. However, allowing for a break at World War II, evidence of convergence is obtained for all countries. JEL no. C32, O41