Die Aufsicht über Rückversicherungsunternehmen nach Solvency II

The impacts of the new regulatory system “Solvency II” on the reinsurance sector are not foreseeable in all details yet. This is true especially with regard to the business aspects of insurance and reinsurance. The legal consequences can be summarized as follows: (1) Solvency II for reinsurers and for primary insurers likewise stands for a paradigm shift in regulation. (2) With Solvency II primary insurance regulation and reinsurance regulation will be more aligned as has been the case according to the Solvency I system so far. (3) The specifics of reinsurance business will be taken into account in the Solvency II-directive as well. Many special provisions which are known from the reinsurance directive will remain in place.     

Hedging in Incomplete Markets: An Approximation Procedure for Practical Application

Derivative financial instruments are frequently used as a tool for influencing the risk of entrepreneurial uncertain payoff. To this end, an approximation procedure is developed capable of calculating the optimal quantity of derivatives to be used. It is assumed that the entrepreneurial cash flow is governed by several stochastic factors and that derivatives are only available as a hedging tool for one of these factors. In general, it is easy to determine optimal hedging payment structures with respect to this factor, but real‐life hedging opportunities will typically not allow to perfectly reproduce such a fictitious payment structure, thus leading to complex numerical optimization problems. Instead of directly approximating the entrepreneurial expected utility maximum, we suggest using the fictitious optimal hedging payment structure as a starting point and to minimize the quadratic deviation between payment structures realizable by financial derivatives actually available and the resulting entrepreneurial payoff achieving the fictitious optimal hedging payment structure. This approach proves to be rather easy. Indeed, under certain conditions an explicit solution can be reached. After analyzing the qualitative properties of our approximation solution, we examine its efficiency for two practical hedging problems. In the first example, we get nearly the same solutions with our approximation procedure as with a grid programming approach presented by some other authors. Among other things, our second example may explain why some special kinds of financial derivatives, known as shared currency option under tenders, are not used in international invitations for tenders even though they offer hedging opportunities that are otherwise not available. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21: 599–631, 2001     

The Behaviour of the Firm under Alternative Regulatory Constraints

We review the case for intermediate power incentive regulation such as sliding scale when the regulator is badly informed and the firm's profits have a shadow resource cost. We then evaluate a number of different regulatory regimes including sliding scale in terms of productive and allocative efficiency. We find that the sliding scale principle can be applied quite generally—to dividends, profits or rate of return and that it has attractive economic properties.     

Uncertainty and the Great Recession

Has heightened uncertainty been a major contributor to the Great Recession and the slow recovery in the United States? To answer this question, we identify exogenous changes in six uncertainty proxies and quantify their contributions to GDP growth and the unemployment rate. The answer is no. In total we find that increased macroeconomic and financial uncertainty can explain up to 10% of the drop in GDP at the height of the recession and up to 0.6 percentage points of the increased unemployment rates in 2009 through 2011. Our calculations further suggest that only a minor part of the rise in popular uncertainty measures during the Great Recession was driven by exogenous uncertainty shocks.     

Impact of Horizontal Mergers on Research & Development and Patenting: Evidence from Merger Challenges in the U.S.

This paper contributes further empirical evidence on the effects of mergers on innovation using company level data. Evidence on this issue has implications for the relationship between innovation and market concentration. Our departure from previous work is that we focus on a sample of horizontal mergers whose market concentration impacts were flagged by U.S. antitrust authorities as potentially posing a problem for antitrust law compliance. We employ propensity score matching and difference-in-differences estimation to compare the innovation activities of challenged and non-challenged merger firms to a control group of non-merged firms. We use R&D, patent grants, and citation-weighted patent grants to measure the innovation activities of firms before and after a merger. Our results indicate that the post-merger innovation outcomes of firms whose mergers were challenged are lower than they would have been had the firms not merged. But for non-challenged mergers, or mergers that do not raise concerns about market concentration, post-merger innovation outcomes are not significantly different from what they would have been without a merger.     

Die Erwartungen der Industrie für 2014

The overall economic situation in 2013 showed less momentum than predicted. In particular, exports grew slowly — as did global trade on the whole. The economic environment was difficult in the aftermath of the public debt and currency crisis in the euro zone. This is reflected in most of the industrial sectors. The construction industry is less dependent on exports than on weather, which reduced production last winter. Meanwhile, the automotive industry grew at an above average rate. The outlook for 2014 finds all industries predicting better performance than in 2013, but there are obstacles due to German policy — the renewable energy act is one of them, as Utz Tillmann of the chemical industry points out. Klaus Mittelbach also looks critically at the turnaround in the German energy policy, but he hopes that the electronics industry will benefit from technological requirements.     

Longevity Risk

Most of the western world has seen a steady increase in the average lifetime of its inhabitants over the past century. Although the past trends suggest that further changes in mortality rates are to be expected, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the future development of mortality. This type of uncertainty is referred to as longevity risk. This paper reviews the current state of the literature concerning longevity risk. First, we discuss the modeling of future mortality, including the Lee and Carter (J Am Stat Assoc 87:659–671, 1992)-approach, as well as other approaches. Second we discuss the importance of longevity risk for the solvency of portfolios of pension and life insurance products. Finally, we investigate possibilities for longevity risk management. In particular, we consider longevity risk management through securitization and/or pension and insurance (re)design.     

Perceived and actual option values of college enrollment

An important feature of postsecondary schooling is the experimentation that accompanies sequential decision making. Specifically, by entering college, a student gains the option to decide at a future time whether it is optimal to remain in college or to drop out, after resolving uncertainty that existed at entrance about factors that affect the return to college. This paper uses data from the Berea Panel Study to quantify the value of this option. The unique nature of the data allows us to make a distinction between “actual” option values and “perceived” option values and to examine the accuracy of students' perceptions.     

Optimal social security claiming behavior under lump sum incentives: Theory and evidence

Many Americans claim Social Security benefits early, though this leaves them with lower monthly payments throughout retirement. We build a lifecycle model that closely tracks claiming patterns under current rules, and we use it to predict claiming delays if, by delaying benefits, people were to receive a lump sum instead of an annuity. We predict that current early claimers would defer claiming by a year given actuarially fair lump sums, and the predictions conform with respondents' answers to a strategic survey about the lump sum. In other words, such a reform could provide an avenue for encouraging delayed retirement without benefit cuts or tax increases. Moreover, many people would still defer claiming even for smaller lump sums.